Intermediate term view - waiting for the current move to finish and the high of it should be intermediate term top.
The price bounced one more time between the two trend lines, but broke up as expected. This should be the final wave higher from the April low. Fibonacci measurements for an impulse are pointing to 2480/2482/2525 and the target for wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low is 2478. So before a reversal we need to see first finished pattern and I am watching what happens around 2480. I think this move lasts too long and there is high probability that the April low was an 18 month cycle low - even shorter than I have expected with I higher low in April(that is why I was wrong big time:)))). The tech sector and the European indexes - the move looks like impulse from the low, but not making new highs. This means two options at least one more leg higher for a zig-zag or this is just wave 1 and the move will continue higher in August (because the next 18 month cycle is running). What I want to say is do not hurry to jump on the short side... I would wait at lest until FOMC 26.07. See the last two charts Nasdaq/SOX for this idea. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this time technical analysis worked so beautiful - trend lines/Fibo/support/MA50 daily:)
If the target is around 2480 than SP500 should be somewhere in wave 3 of this last move(white) so small pullback expected and one more higher high.
With the higher target 2525 this is just wave 1(green)
Intermediate term - the move from the April low takes too long and the probability is higher that this is wave 3 and not iii of 3. The usual target for wave 3 is 1,618x1 which is 2478 very close to other two measurements for the wave since April.
Long term - no change. We should see at least one more higher high for the bull market, but MACD/RSI do not look very bullish. It is more likely to see a correction before another significant move higher.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are showing weakening move, but no reversal sign.
McClellan Oscillator - again above zero and again lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up, but lower high.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal in the middle of the range.
Bullish Percentage - above 70, but lower high.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - weak with lower high.
Fear Indicator VIX - very tight BB and another lower high.... there is no room for another lower high:) next time it will be a higher high.
HURST CYCLES
Day 6, I think the next 40 day cycle is running.
Here it is how the cycles should look like if the 18 month cycle low was in April.
Here is the technology sector - NASDAQ and SOX (in Europe the DAX has similar chart - count/Fibo measurements/trend lines/MA200).
If the idea with the important cycle low in April is right this is just wave i of 5 of III and the move up should continue in July and August. Some pretty accurate Fibo measurements, decent count so I would not just discard this idea and start shorting.
SOX - well visible zig-zag lower and impulse higher. So minimum one more leg higher for a flat(red) and if the next 18 month cycle is running higher high(green). Again decent count and pretty good looking Fibo measurements.
