Aug 8, 2017
Update
We have a triangle which is usually wave 4 and break out as expected, finished pattern from the June low and MACD divergence.... it smells like a top, I can not see more bullish counts.
Aug 5, 2017
Weekly preview
Short term view - one final high.
Intermediate term view - after the high intermediate term top and correction for a few weeks.
One big nothing this week... but nothing is information too. The signs are pointing to one more high - long sideway move favors wave 4 which means to expect one more high, cycles - it looks like mid cycle low around day 20 for the 40 day cycle and one more higher high. Overall the indexes look different - DJ strong, Nasdaq/SP500 sideway move(>15 days in this 10 point range), Europe,RUT,DJT weak correcting already.
I think they will synchronize DJ/SP500 making one more high and the weak indexes retracing higher then all sell off for a few weeks. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this sideway move starts looking like a triangle and favors the bullish pattern from last week so I expect bullish outcome.
Alternate it still can test MA200, but as long as the price stays above 2450 the price action is bullish.
Intermediate term - wave iv of 3 does not make much sense anymore so I removed it. I think this is the top of wave 3.
When the top of wave 3 is behind us I see two options for wave 4 - wave 2 was a flat so wave 4 should be something different(the rule of alternation).
- If history repeats (VIX/Price behavior from 2006/2007) we should see a zig-zag (red).
- the other option is a pattern which will consume time - triangle or complex correction.
Long term - no change. We should see at least one more higher high for the bull market. RSI/MACD look bad - it is more likely to see a correction before another significant move higher.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - most of them turned lower and showing signs of weakness....
McClellan Oscillator - below zero. One move above zero and divergence for the final high will look great.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached overbought level.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower and now below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower after second failed attempt to move above 75.... sign for a weakness. And long term divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - around 10 with very tight BB again.
HURST CYCLES
Day 21... we have have something like a bottom in the middle of the 40 day cycle around day 20. This 20 day cycle was strong right translated so the next 20 day cycle is expected to make a higher high.
Week 16 - it is getting more and more likely that the 18 month cycle low was in April.
Intermediate term view - after the high intermediate term top and correction for a few weeks.
One big nothing this week... but nothing is information too. The signs are pointing to one more high - long sideway move favors wave 4 which means to expect one more high, cycles - it looks like mid cycle low around day 20 for the 40 day cycle and one more higher high. Overall the indexes look different - DJ strong, Nasdaq/SP500 sideway move(>15 days in this 10 point range), Europe,RUT,DJT weak correcting already.
I think they will synchronize DJ/SP500 making one more high and the weak indexes retracing higher then all sell off for a few weeks. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this sideway move starts looking like a triangle and favors the bullish pattern from last week so I expect bullish outcome.
Alternate it still can test MA200, but as long as the price stays above 2450 the price action is bullish.
Intermediate term - wave iv of 3 does not make much sense anymore so I removed it. I think this is the top of wave 3.
When the top of wave 3 is behind us I see two options for wave 4 - wave 2 was a flat so wave 4 should be something different(the rule of alternation).
- If history repeats (VIX/Price behavior from 2006/2007) we should see a zig-zag (red).
- the other option is a pattern which will consume time - triangle or complex correction.
Long term - no change. We should see at least one more higher high for the bull market. RSI/MACD look bad - it is more likely to see a correction before another significant move higher.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - most of them turned lower and showing signs of weakness....
McClellan Oscillator - below zero. One move above zero and divergence for the final high will look great.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached overbought level.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower and now below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower after second failed attempt to move above 75.... sign for a weakness. And long term divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - around 10 with very tight BB again.
HURST CYCLES
Day 21... we have have something like a bottom in the middle of the 40 day cycle around day 20. This 20 day cycle was strong right translated so the next 20 day cycle is expected to make a higher high.
Week 16 - it is getting more and more likely that the 18 month cycle low was in April.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
