Weekly preview

Short term view - still missing the impulsive price action lower, I think we will see one more high.
Intermediate term view - close to intermediate term high and topping process in December.

We saw higher high with an exhaustion gap on Monday and a pull back... so far so good, but I do not see impulsive price action lower and looking other indexes short term up is expected. Intermediate term this should be the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the price action so far looks corrective not impulsive... I suspect bigger wave iv and one more high.

Intermediate term - the same like last week topping expected in December. Primary scenario the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low.

Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some are turning lower, but other like McClellan Summation Index will look better if we see continuation for another 2-3 weeks higher.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero, more divergences?
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 70, no sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the 75 level, divergences before reversal?
Fear Indicator VIX - I expect more higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak plunged lower close to the zero level.


HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 3 of the next 20 week cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
After finished sell setup we have several days closing in the red... we will have confirmed sell signal when we see price flip on the weekly chart and this is close below 2585-2575 area for the next two weeks.

Weekly preview

Short term view - final wave higher.
Intermediate term view - now very close to intermediate term top, overall we should see topping process in December.

1-2 i-ii looked like the less likely scenario, but it has played out. I have suggested another one because RUT was already in iii of 3, Europe reversed long time ago, EM and tech were tired and reversed this week.... John Doe suggested that this is "rotation happening into the 'biggest' beneficiaries of U.S. tax reform" It makes sense last final hooray riding the news.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - last week too many options were possible, but now the pattern looks clear like 1-2 i-ii impulse with the last wave 5 running. The indicators say this is the more likely scenario.
Alternate the move could be finished, I have seen so many times the last missing 5 of 5 of 5 never appearing I would not be surprised.

Intermediate term - classical overthrow above the trend line and last blow off. Overall December looks like topping process up and down. First next week the current wave from mid November should be finished, then lower to test MA50, then higher to test the top and the trend line... I do not expect some serious sell off before January.

Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are bullish it will take time for topping and reversal which fits with the cycle and my expectation for a choppy December. The only warning signal is VIX, the indexes are exploding higher and it spikes higher to 12 instead of plunging to 9.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, but with intermediate term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - managed to move above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low despite the euphoria, first warning sign. I think we will see a series of higher low before a strong sell off.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading higher for the overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Day 11 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 2 of the next 20 week cycle.

Here is top-to-top analysis. If it is right this should be 18 month cycle high.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Another sell setup finished on the daily chart and we have now 9-13-9 from the August low.