Weekly preview

We have the 10w low and now it should take roughly 3 weeks until the next intermediate term top, which should be 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, rising into the next intermediate term top.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - for now counting this as b/Z and another zig-zag for c/Z.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
I am expect one more high before significant decline - and this is playing out now.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow. MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in the middle of a move up.
McClellan Oscillator - reseting after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - made higher high and retracing lower. I am expecting another higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think the 5w high was last week and now we should see 20d high next week. Intermediate term we have 10w low and now higher into 10w high.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.

Weekly preview

Extremely volatile week, NYSE/DJ joined the DAX this decline looks more like reversal. The decline is too deep and faster than the previous wave up. Again the tech indices+SP500 could make higher high and other indices lower high.

Short term waiting for the next week to see if we have 10w low. After that we should see a few weeks higher for the holidays. Overall the indices are at important top 4y cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, it is a better idea to wait for the next high if you want to sell.
Analysis - sell the rips, time to get out, potential major top.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible double zig-zag lower. Waiting for more price action - it could be b/Z or a of something bigger.

Intermediate term - I see three zig-zags with roughly the same length in time W-x-Y-x-Z or possible W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y.
I am expect one more high before significant decline - it could be higher high with divergence or lower high.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MACD and RSI look very "bullish" - multiple divergences.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - tricky it could be 10w low and turn from oversold levels or the markets are in bearish mode and the oversold levels will be tested one more time for 10w low in 1-2 weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce from oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - bounce up.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher high, waiting for higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower low and bounce from oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the cycle model on the chart below has good looking high-low sequence. In this case we should see 5w high soon and final decline for 10w low. Alternate this week we saw the 10w low.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle. Long term I am expecting 4 year cycle high. The 18m low more likely in late September with one extra 20w cycle, alternate on time in June.