Weekly preview

Final push and the fibo targets have been met. The indices are at important high 40w high. Stupidity is back so I am 100% sure this is a top. This is how a real bear market starts - decline 20-30% and the retail traders aka bag holders think they are the smartest guys and double down. In 2020 the decline was extremely fast wave-c 4y cycle low nothing in common with the current situation - spot the difference two bonuce charts.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, day 52 due for a reversal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high next a few months lower.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the fibo targets have been reached, now waiting to see how the move lower will look like. I think decline and test of the trend line one more time before it realy dives.

Intermediate term - I see two options wave 4 or B, testing the trend line and MA200.
In the case of wave 4 expect a low around November(white). In the case of wave B bigger move lower and a low January/February(yellow).

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are positive, as I wrote no need for divergence this is a bear market.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought level reached and divergence now.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, now we have reset after very low levels and ready for the next leg lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - above 70, the same level like January and March.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - continuing lower, not reacting to the last 10 days rally.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high, with high probability close to the top of 40w cycle high.

Week 19 for the 20w cycle high and week 32 for the 40w cycle high - in the time window for a top.
The first 20w cycle high has only 3x5w cycles and I think the current one has 5x5w cycles - time likes to adjust if we have too short or long cycle. At the end we have 8x5w cycles and the 40w cycle is currently 32 weeks long or right on schedule(see the chart above).

Weekly preview

Nothing new to add - the indices are at 10w high which should be 40w high. The fact it takes longer and the wave is extended means with higher probability this is an intermediate term high - less likely the first leg of something bigger.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, day 47 due for a reversal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high next a few months lower.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like double zig-zag with c-wave extending 1.618 the length of the a-wave. Should we see final push higher to the targets(green area) - I do not know. Because of cycles I do not think this is part of bigger pattern.

Intermediate term - corrective pattern is completing at the trend line and 40w high. It is time for the next leg lower. Less likely B-wave(yellow).

Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower from sligthly overbought levels. In a bull market you do not need divergence for a low just oversold levels touched. In a bear market it is the opposite - you do not need divergence for a high just overbought levels touched.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought level reached, divergence and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, now we have reset after very low levels and ready for the next leg lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - sligthly overbought level and turning lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sligthly overbought level and turning lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - drifting lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - sligthly overbought level and turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d high and turning lower into 20d low. Intermediate term we should se 10w high and 10w low... and some kind of topping.

Week 18 for the 20w cycle high - average lenght 16-18 weeks it is time for 20w high.
Week 31/37 for the 40w cycle high (from January/November) - average lenght 32-36 weeks it is time for 40w high.