Weekly preview

The reversal lower is confirmed now waiting to see how it will develop. I see two options shown below with the cycle charts - one more bullish 10w low in a week or more bearish heading lower into 20w low for another 5-6 weeks.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, MA10 and the trend line tested and reversal confirmed.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - next a few months lower.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we saw a/1 and b/2 now c/3 should be running. The surprise scenario is the flush lower on Friday was wave 5 and impulse has been completed... it does not feel right we will see next week.

Intermediate term - The pattern two options wave 4 or B. If you count wave 4 than we have expanding leading diagonal - I have never seen LD playing out not to mention expanding so I would say this is wave B and another zig-zag for wave C will follow.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower and in sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - sligthly oversold level reset and now heading lower again.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower and now below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower and now below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d low then 20d high and turn lower again into the next 20d low.
The first option - the same like what we just saw with the highs - extended 10w cycle.

The second option - simple just following the rules counting 4x20d cycles for one 10w low behind us already, the second one making lower low or the 20w cycle turned lower.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle. The most simple scenario is the 20w cycle is turning lower and RSI is confirming it - another red week is needed for confirmation.

Weekly preview

A few days higher to complete the 20d cycle and turn lower as expected. We have potential important high 40w high, MA200 and the broken trend line have been tested too.... now waiting for confirmation.


TRADING
Trading trigger - neutral, two days closing below MA10 will confirm a reversal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - next a few months lower.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - too early to make any conclusions, waiting to see how the move lower will look like.

Intermediate term - SPX testing the two trend lines and MA200 - this is some kind of a high.
The pattern two options wave 4 or B. If you count wave 4 than we have expanding leading diagonal - I think the probability is higher to see flying unicorn farting rainbows so I would say this is wave B and another zig-zag for wave C will follow.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are positive, some turning lower. As I wrote no need for divergence this is a bear market.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero after divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - bottoming?
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and now lower into 20d low. We have the right number of 20d and 5w cycles for 40w high now waiting for confirmation or not.

Week 20 for the 20w cycle high and week 33 for the 40w cycle high - in the time window for a top(average length 32-36 weeks).
The chart above showing that we have one shorter 20w cycle followed by longer 20w cycle at the end eight 5w cycles for 40w high.

There were questions about the 10w low. Why the unusual positioning(not at the low) for the 10w and 40w lows on the two charts above. If you count 18m low in October.2021 expect the next 18m low in January/February. Eight 10w cycles projected from October.2021 - it is a speculation at the moment, but if we see a low around mid-September it will be a confirmation.