Weekly preview

Third sideways week... and on Friday booom - this should be the missing c-wave for the correction.
This move "up" is corrective and now takes longer than the previous decline retracing only 38% - so I expect one final flush lower to complete the decline with 20w low. I am following this analysis for weeks and it will be proven right or wrong next week... it will be really strange to see continuation higher.

The bigger picture - the move lower does not look like reversal rather it is part of a bigger corrective pattern.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this should be the c-wave for the pattern higher.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The last leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat, so far the current leg lower is too slow and choppy for reversal so d/B or b/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, I think for a short term high and not a reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... some sideways mess.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not very clear...
The highs - too long for 5w high too short for 10w high - a guess the next 20w high will consist of three longer 5w cycles.
The lows - I think currently in the final 5w cycle. The 20w cycle looks like the previous one no clear 10w low... maybe three longer 5w cycles too.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle.... it will be strange if see reversal higher instead of a few weeks lower to complete the cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.

Long term - update

Happy New Year!!!!

All assets show similar pattern - we have 4y cycle high behind us and in 2023 we should see the final declines into 4y cycle low.
The current view for the next 6 months:
- Stocks - one more push higher then final leg lower for 4 year cycle low.
- Bonds - after one sell off the move higher into 4 year cycle high will continue.
- USD - maybe we saw the high, but when we see fear and all the other asset classes sell off, I expect strong move higher even if it is a lower high.
- Precious metals/miners - final leg lower and 9 year cycle low.
- Crude Oil - the correction lower to continue.



- STOCKS
I think the correction could last until March/April for 18m high, but the trend is lower for 4 year cycle low.

- BONDS
we saw one final flush lower and 4 year cycle low now moving higher into 4 year cycle high.

- FOREX
I was expecting to see the high and it seems we have a reversal.
Next year we should see fear which means spike higher for the USD probably lower high then the bigger decline begins.... I guess something like this(EUR/USD chart).

- GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
Gold - the bigger trend is lower until we see the 4y/9y cycle low. Very strong November it looks like reversal, but it will be strange to see the 4y low in just 2.5 years.

In fact the 9y cycle counts visually better if you divide it in three 3x2.6 years roughly 7.5-8 years, but the result is exactly the same Q4.2023 - the average length for 9y cycle.

GDXJ - miners the same cycle pattern we should see one final decline for 9 year cycle low and completed double zig-zag.

Closer look - perfect pattern with Fibo measurements price and time looks like this:

- CRUDE OIL
We saw a high as expected, this should be 4 year cycle high and now declining into 4 year cycle low.