The market chose the simple pattern to complete the y-wave. Now we have w-x-y completing from the October low. Most likely this is the top of the B-wave. As I wrote in comments do not expect the end of the world. We should see several weeks lower first half of July then higher into August. Tech stocks probably higher high, NYSE,DJ,RUT lower high and SPX is usually in the middle - I would say testing the top with lower high.
For the record this is the first time since October with possible B-wave completed. Untill now I was waiting patiently and now we have it possible completed pattern with multiple divergences MACD/RSI and 18m high which is overdue. Only market breadth is neutral+20w cycle right translated that is why the scenario described above - first warning shot and after the summer really getting going.
This is important high for sure, everybody is very smart again and bought the lows and will exit on time - the market will give them a sign.... sure good luck. Deja vu I am listening the same bullshit since 2018 when lengthy topping process started.
Curious where were all this smart guys in October when I was predicting important low? Why all this smart guys like LadyS apear only at tops and never at bottoms? Simple they are sheeple running with the herd - afraid at the bottom and feeling strong with the masses at the top.Making money makes you feel good the same chemistry like drug addicted and I destroy their happiness telling it will not last. This will repeat over and over and it will never change.
TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, day 42 at intermediate term high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - lower 4-6 weeks expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like another double zig-zag for wave-y and completing w-x-y.It can extend if 24th of May(white b) is the end of the correction shifting x yellow to the right and the indices are in the middle of y (see short term cycles).
Intermediate term - w-x-y/B from October completed. Alternate mega triangle from June with the expected moves in summer.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, most of them in the middle of their ranges.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral, in the middle of the range.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency again, values like at the ATH.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high which is at least 5w and 10w high. From SP500 perspective it should be 20w high, but if you look at NYSE/DJ the 10w low was later the end of May now higher into 10w high and the decline into 20w low already running. I will look closer when I have time and write in the comments.
Week 12 for the 20w cycle low, week 17 for the 20w cycle high... or should we look at NYSE? The cycles of higher degree are not perfectly clear.
