Weekly preview

Decline into 10w low has begun, as I wrote do not expect crash. I suspect we have 18m cycle which will count better as three longer 20w cycles 5-5.5 months each. In this case the next low should be around mid-August... now waiting to see how the decline will develop.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal just triggered, the trend lines were broken most likely decline into the 10w low has begun.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - decline into mid-August expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move up is over count, double zig-zag or impulse it does not matter. Something lower begun, it is too early to forecast pattern.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag w-x-y/B(white) from October completed. If you allign the pattern with important cycle lows/highs the more likely pattern is zig-zag w-x-y(yellow) with triangle X and inside triangle e-wave.
Waiting to see how the decline will develop.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but nothing dramatic so far.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - very high complacency.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low and next week we should see 20d high. I bet on extended 5w cycle part of extended 10w/20w cycles.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle. We do not have clear 40w low... probably this three longer 10w cycles are part of something bigger. Maybe instead 2x40w cycles we will see 3x20w longer cycles 5-5.5 months each overall 15-16 months which is the average length for the 18m cycle. If we see well defined low around mid-August than we will have two of them and it will be a confirmation.

Weekly preview

So much emotions and excitement, retail traders buying stocks and calls like crazy.... buying the top as always.
Short term the current wave higher has now the same length as the previous leg up. Intermediate term this is at least 10w high so next is decline into 10w low. My opinion is this is a top of higher degree - the top of the B-wave.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, day 42 at intermediate term high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - reversal into 4y cycle low expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the c-wave(yellow) moved higher from 0,62 to 1 extension. I have not seen impulses for a long time instead double zig-zags everywhere so I guess it is double zig-zag (a-b-c white). If you believe it is an impulse than it is fifth wave extension finished or one more squigle with 5=1to3.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag w-x-y/B(white) from October completing. If you allign the pattern with important cycle lows/highs the more likely pattern is zig-zag w-x-y(yellow) with triangle X and inside triangle e-wave. I have shown it as one of the possible patterns just the e-wave is sideways move not decline. Cycles fit better with top now so no alternate B-wave high after the summer.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with vertical move higher I would expect to see very overbought levels to confirm strength instead the indicators are below the overbought levels with divergence. It is not a surprise very narrow market only a few tech stocks pulling the indices higher.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - rising, but nothing convincing... below overbought level no strength.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - rising, but nothing convincing... below overbought level with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down looks like bottoming.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower below the overbought level, double divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high which is at least 10w high and I think it is 40w high. Next is decline into 5w and 10w low.

Week 3 for the current 20w cycle. I think we saw 40w low around the end of May and now at 40w high. I wrote many times it divides better as three longer 10w cycles. It does not make much sense to count week 35 expecting 40w low when the price is moving in the opposite direction.