Weekly preview

The market NVDA moved higher gapping every day... and trapped many on Friday with sharp reversal.
We have one more 20d cycle high, 40w high at week 32, indicators and market breadth with multiple divergences. The market is at important top and next is decline into May/June for 40w low.

As expected zero answers from all the "smart traders". They have no plan it feels sooo good I wish it will continue forever. To summarize the usual emotianal crap and nonsense with no plan:
- you are wrong so no decline - finding excuses, completely clueless.
- it is higher 8000 points(NDX) so no decline - extrapolating the past into the future.
- yields lower so no decline - history says the opposite every 4 years yields and indices decline in sync.
- AI will change the world NDX 50k so no decline - probably some young guy with zero experince, riding all this hype, gamification of trading never seen a decline - read history adoption of new technologies quick check Internet and dotcom bubble.
To be fair two weeks ago someone posted the main stream EW count impulse from 2009 and now the top of iii/5 ending diagonal. There is no impulse and the ED is very suspicious, best case there a-b-c from 2009 and this is iii/c ending diagonal with the same result. At least the guy has a plan which can be adjusted when we see the next decline.... all the others are just believers that the good times will last forever - I have news for you the good times are gone, all it is left is the sugar high the paper wealth.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower - waiting for confirmation next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - looks like corrective w-x-y with plenty of zig-zags... difficult to see impulse.

Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. This should be the top of corrective B-wave and C-wave for a flat should follow. Alternate this is a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - very weak buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - choppy moves makes it difficult to count shorter cycles. The highs look like three extended 10w cycles, 5w cycle high in the middle and three 20d cycles to complete 5w/10w/40w cycle high.
The lows - sticking to the theory 20w low in February, but vusualy probably three extended 10w cycles too.

Week 19 for the 40w cycle. Probably 40w cycle consisting of three extended 10w cycles, but if I have to pinpoint 20w low it should be at week 16.
Week 32 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... and very likely 18m cycle high too.
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 32 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm after shorter cycles from mid-2022 to mid-2023.

Weekly preview

Completed pattern another double zig-zag y for w-x-y with y=0.618xw with multiple divergences and bad market breath at week 31(32-36 average). This are strong bullish signs and the momentum is strong with the histogram flat at the zero line(I hope you get the sarcasm)
DAX and bitcoin joined the euphoria to complete their patterns... on youtube - "buy bitcoin last chance to get rich" no comment:)

I have posted 30+ years MSFT chart and three charts last week - show me how they are wrong and how a strong bull market is running... because I am so wrong show me how right and smart you are.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - either w-x-y double zig-zag or less likely a-b-c zig-zag with running correction b-wave.

Intermediate term - two double zig-zags for w-x-y at two Fibo targets. Another view with line chart.
This should be the top of corrective B-wave and C-wave for a flat should follow.
Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - very weak buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75 with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - probably bounce of 20d low and higher into 20d high, lets see if there is another day or two left.
Intermediate term - mature 10w and 40w cycles, the 40w cycle high/low divide better in three with no clear 20w high/low.

Week 18 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 31, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.