Weekly preview

Short update only the relevant charts and earlier because I am busy this weekend.

We saw a move lower, but more complicated and deeper than expected. The price touched twice support levels(second chart) - first 38% Fibo and the upper support line and second time 50% Fibo and the lower support line. There is no room to move any lower.
What we have so far is only three waves(corrective) and bounce from MA50/support/Fibo level... but the weekly indicators look bad, market breadth looks bad anyway.... What I want to same is the pattern is not 100% clear which is not a surprise around tops.

The price is above MA50 on the daily chart, we have the end of a quarter and holidays so a plunge looks less likely.
If it is a bullish pattern one more higher high - we should see a move to the last top around 2450 with impulse and small pullback.
If it is a bearish pattern and the top is behind us - we should see weak move three waves higher because of the holidays(thin volume).

For those who blame me that I always draw up and down - sorry that I can not nail the top of wave 3 in bull market at the hourly level(sarc).
You can not trade the hourly chart close to a top with buy and hold. This is completely different trade - this is hit and run.
Here is a trading plan for hourly chart hit and run - if you see impulse to the previous high after a small pullback buy and ride the last 30-40 points, if you see weak move three waves sell with tight stop(the last high) and ride lower.
You do not trade what you do not know you trade what you know weighting the probabilities.
If you can not understand what I explain above and can not create a trading plan(something completely different than analysis) with the information presented on my blog - you just can not trade this time frame move to daily or weekly. How many times have I changed the weekly chart since Feb.2016?


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - how both scenarios should look like.

Intermediate term - the chart which I have posted on 21.June updated - you can see how price plays with support, Fibo levels, MA50, RSI trendline.
If you can tell me if RSI will bounce from the trend line or break lower than I can tell which scenario is playing out:)

Weekly preview

Short term view - small move lower and then it is more likely to see one final high.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top expected followed by sharp correction lower.

Move up to touch the trend line and reversal... not much of a surprise. The same analysis - either some kind of corrective wave 4 or if we see a reversal we will have only three waves from the April bottom which means B from expanded flat. It is taking too long for a reversal and after the ugly candle from Tuesday there is no follow through so the odds are higher that we have some wave 4 and one more higher high will follow.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - as long as the price stays around support MA200 we have wave 4 and another high will follow(yellow). For something bearish we need clear and convincing move lower below support(red).

Intermediate term - waiting for intermediate top. The bearish scenario flat correction is in fact more bullish - it allows you to count iv-v of 3 then 4-5. If the price continue higher I do not see other way except counting it as the top of wave 3.

Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned bullish last week, but now they are looking bad again.... just more and more weakness.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero now.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with multiple divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in overbought territory with divergences.
Bullish Percentage - the only one showing some strength moving above 70.... if you ignore the divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - touched overbought level and reversed sharply.
Fear Indicator VIX - very very tight BB again we should see a spike higher again.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range heading lower since early June.


HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 12 of the last 20 week cycle.... I am asking myself if the 18 month cycle low was in April???