Weekly preview

Short term move lower, but I do not know somehow it does not convince me. One or another way it will move lower just not sure about the path. Next week we will know more... which one will be.
Intermediate term - the indices should decline into 20w cycle low, but it is taking too long and I am skeptical that the low will be tested. Probably 50% correction to test support and MA200 weekly.
Long term - the implication for the big picture is bad. It sounds bullish but it is exactly the opposite - in the middle of another B wave.... again, like it or not.


TRADING
Trading cycle - sell signal. The price is below MA10, RSI is pointing lower below MA18. I am holding my short, it is down until proven otherwise.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - why this decline does not convince me.... there is too much churning around(futures the same), there is no technical damage like breaking support it is just trapped between the three MAs, 8 days later it still has not erased the last move up lasting only 2 days. This supposed third wave of C sucks so far.
To erase the doubts and what RSI is telling(divergences without breaking the trend line at the oversold level) on Monday this third wave should gap lower and waterfall more than 100 points. It should take a few hours not many hours or days.
If we do not see this it is just w(flat)-x-y(zig-zag) for b wave. Or maybe it is b of a triangle who knows. Hanging on this theory because it will be great to see NDX completing this pattern.

Intermediate term - MA50 and MA200 are still holding, but I expect 50% retracement into July for 20w cycle low one or another way. Conveniently the two Fibo retracement levels are at support levels from last year.

Long term - now it looks like the low will not be tested which is very bad news - the main scenario is the bull market is over and we are in another B wave of higher degree compared to 2019.
This is the pattern which makes most sense. Those interested in cycles look at Benner cycles to see how the pattern fits perfect.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are in sell mode. Any jump higher should be short living and reversed quickly.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly oversold.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - another spike expected, just not sure at the moment if there is more to retrace.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have possible 20d cycle high and now declining into 20d low. If we see move higher this is probably 40d/5w low.
P.S. This green bar the high on 19th of June is wrong data from investing.com in fact it is red bar lower.

Week 14 for the 20w cycle. It seem the decline into 20 week cycle low is running, but still not 100% confirmed price and RSI still has not broke below the MAs.
Most likely March was the important low and I have already changed the chart... I have not seen so short 40w cycle only 24 weeks, maybe because of the speed of the decline. There is no perfect tools cycles are great, but not perfect as every other tool.

Weekly preview

Four days mess, still waiting for the market to make a decision. From pattern perspective one more high makes more sense.... but even if we see higher high I doubt it will last for a long, just to see divergences and to turn lower. Trading signal and cycles - it makes more sense if we see continuation lower.... but time is playing for the bulls.




TRADING
Trading cycle - the sell signal has not been negated. The price hanging for several days around MA10, but did not close above it and RSI is still below MA18.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it is difficult to see completed pattern and reversal. You can try with b(red) triangle, but the futures did not make higher high for c. Maybe some corrective pattern b(green) and we will see a high next week for c.
Even if we see continuation it looks like another zig-zag with long and shallow b wave - most bullish scenario 3/C ED running.
All we can do is wait until we see clear pattern or break below 62% and MA200.

Intermediate term - RSI shows this move up is living on borrowed time - either we have a high and test of the broken trend line or higher high with divergence coming.

Long term - I do not see an impulse higher so changed the alternate scenario from completed wave IV to wave A with a/B completing and b/B until the end of the year. The yellow pattern is adjusted for time with all the 20w/40w/18m cycle lows and highs, it is not just random lines.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - do not show some strong momentum higher just some ticked up briefly.... rather weakness.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - small double top?
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - still in overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - turned up from 70 but below the MA and turning lower again.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turning lower again, but still above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - cooling off as expected.
Advance-Decline Issues - is heading lower below zero.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have 40d/5w low as expected and 10d cycle high. The question is will we see another high next week for 20d high before continuation lower.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle. I think we have 20w cycle high, but RSI has to confirm it breaking below MA9.