Weekly preview

It took a lot of time to see completed pattern from the late June low, but finally this week we have it - zig-zag. There is impulse lower on shorter time frames with divergences - the indicators on the daily chart and market breadth. This should develop as wave c of expanded flat and 20w low in a few weeks - this is the most obvious and main scenario.
Alternate the move from the March low is completed and we had 20w low late June - this is speculation and can not be confirmed at the moment. This b wave lasted very long, longer than the previous rally from mid May and you have to count three daily cycles for one 20w cycle, which is suspicious.


TRADING
Trading cycle - sell signal was triggered. Just slightly below MA10 for the moment, most likely after retracement on Monday we will see convincing red bar below MA10.
It seems the daily cycle is running shorter, if it continue this way the low should be in 2,5-3 weeks. Cycle with normal length like 45 days will shift the odds that the alternate scenario is playing out.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - on Thursday we saw slightly higher high to complete impulse for (c)/b and zig-zag from the 29.June low. Now we have completed pattern and wave c should be running. Two possible targets for expanded flat wave c are shown 138% and 161% extension. The indicators MACD/RSI broke the trend line lower after divergences confirming move lower should be running.
The alternate pattern is in red - wave Z

Intermediate term - divergences on all indicators, we should see sell off. The 1,618 extension for wave c of expanded flat is perfect hit of the 38% retracement so it looks interesting as a target for the decline.

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching this pattern... but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turning lower with divergences, which is usually a sign for a top.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - double bottom, we should see spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d low on Monday and now the 40d cycle turning lower.

Week 18 for the 20w cycle. We should see a decline for 2-3 weeks to complete the cycle. Alternate late June was 20w cycle low and we are seeing M pattern aka double top similar to Jan-Feb.

Weekly preview

Strange week one push higher as expected sharp reversal and back to the high staying there for three days in narrow range. In the mean time the weaker indices rallied strong to catch up and now other indices like NYSE,RUT,DJ even EUR/USD are synchronized and from the June high have the same pattern like SP500.

It is taking a lot of time, but from pattern and time perspective still the most likely outcome is wave c lower for a flat and 20w cycle low. If not we have to speculate with another corrective wave z higher or 20w low late June.


TRADING
Trading cycle - the trigger is still on buy, but again I do not see a support for a buy from the other tools neither market breadth nor cycles nor EW says buy.
This daily cycle is much weaker compared to the previous two - strong 3/4 weeks higher and 3/4 weeks correction now we have 3 weeks higher and it is just testing the previous high.
As usual wait for close below MA10 to confirm reversal lower.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - very difficult to say what the last three days are... there is no impulse higher and there is no impulse lower to confirm reversal. Best guess ED to complete the pattern.
With the price action this week I do not think we have one mega complex b wave rather two complex waves a-b(white labels) from a flat. So synchronized the SP500 count with the other indices, I think now they all have the same pattern. This does not change the big picture, still expecting c wave lower.
The green count is speculation if we see continuation higher.

Intermediate term - SP500 made slightly higher high so theoretically we have divergences. Now expecting c wave lower.

Long term - I think the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently watching this pattern... but with corrective waves often you have to adjust so stay open minded.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - sell signals and SP500 made slightly higher high so theoretically we have divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - lower high, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower high divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows, I expect spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak, crawling slowly higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the sharp moves up and down probably caused by 5w high followed by 20d low and now the next 20d cycle rising and making M pattern aka double top. If this is the case next week we should see turn lower for 5w cycle low to complete the 20w cycle.

Week 17 for the 20w cycle. The time is ripe for a decline for 2-3 weeks to complete the cycle. Alternate late June was 20w cycle low and we are seeing M pattern similar to Jan-Feb.