Weekly preview

Desptite all the talk about failed banks the market follows the expected path and seems not to care. The pattern looks like b/b/B - short said one big nothing. In a week or two when the next decline starts we will see if there is something more beneath the surface.
The speed and size of the moves from different degrees since October.2022 point to corrective moves. The last two weeks despite all the fear have not changed anything. So the forecast has not changed.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high in a week or two and lower for 5-7 weeks.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this seems to be the right pattern... now in the middle of the b-wave yellow.

Intermediate term - in the middle of wave b/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but no reversal signs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - moving higher after very oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, oversold level reached.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 25.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - bounce from oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low expected and higher. The cycle is right translated so we should see one more high which should be 10w cycle high.

Difficult to stick to the theory counting 20w cycle - if we try I would say one short cycle with a low in December and now in the middle of extended 20w cycle.
I think we have 40w cycle consisting of three cycles - it looks much better.

Weekly preview

Bounce higher as expected - the 20d high, next week we should see decline into 20d low... maybe the indices turned higher for the 10w cycle high currently at week 6. If we see weak decline next week than this is the case.
Intermediate term - main scenario wave b/B running. Other possible scenarios:
- wave B is completed - this move lower is too slow - we have 5 weeks up and 6 weeks lower which could not take out the previous low plus oversold indicators. So very low probability.
- fear VIX 30, oversold market breadth indicators, headlines and talk about failed banks. So maybe the indices are close to the low for b/B not in the middle of it. The chart for this option is shown below, DJI is good example because it made lower high in January. This is a plausible option.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - pause for a week and lower for two months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - two legs lower with the same size and zig-zag higher... is there more to the upside for 10w high?... maybe FOMC is a high or continuation lower next week and final flush lower... it is not possible to say at the moment.
For now sticking to the initial plan shown on the chart.

Intermediate term - in the middle of wave b/B.

Intermediate term - b/B completing with long 20w cycle followed by long cycle for the 20w high.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - at oversold levels, trying to turn higher, but no reversal signs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - bounce higher from very oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - at the oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 25.
Fear Indicator VIX - hit 30 and retracing.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high, next is decline into 20d low.
Intermediate term possible 10w low and now higher into 10w high.

Possible 20w cycle low or final flush lower next week. Watching the price action next week for further clues. I think we have 40w cycle consisting of three cycles - it looks more and more likely.
Here is how I see the DAX