Weekly preview

The 7 stocks bull market is now one stock bull market:) it made a high and completed the pattern, market breadth is awful and the cycle is at week 30 or 40w cycle high. Short said expect reverse lower into 40w cycle low May/June. By the way best case for NVDA wave iii/5 completed and one more high with divergence sometimes in April.

I have shown already MSFT 30+ years chart and bonds 40 years trend reversed the environment has changed... not that someone will listen but I have more charts maybe a few will switch their brain on. The majority will prefer the nice warm feeling of greed at a blow off top kindly provided by AI/NVDA.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the indices are out of sync so trying to count the pattern on shorter time frames is difficult.
NYSE/DJ/DAX have zig-zag sideways move and second zig-zag for SPX some how impulse can be counted....

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.
Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weak with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turning up, below 70 with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75 with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high, mature 10w and 40w cycles. With multiple divergences it is more likely this is the final high instead of one more 20d cycle high. The 40w cycle high divides better in three, there is no clear 20w high.

Week 17 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 30, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.

Europe MAJOR TOP move lasting 15 years is completing clear corrective zig-zags and blow off top.

Japan two 18 year cycle highs, clear corrective zig-zags, blow off top, USD/JPY risk off trade...

Volatility(SVXY) spike every two years and clear zig-zag w-x-y from 2020 with double zig-zag y completed. Big move lower(volatility higher) is starting

Weekly preview

Completing the pattern from the 2023 low. Short term the 20d cycle high says another 3-4 days higher.... or it can just truncate and plunge lower.
Long term this is important high it could be even the top from 2009... if you look at stronger index like NDX it looks like zig-zag from 2020, weaker index like NYSE looks like b-wave of a flat and very weak index like RUT just a b-wave bearish flag.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - at the top. Important turn lower next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - depending where the low is you can count impulse c for a-b-c or double zig-zag y for w-x-y. I would bet on zig-zags....

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up... waiting for B-wave to be completed and C-wave for a flat should follow.
Alternate this is expanding ending diagonal from the 2022 low for a-b-c from the 2020 low and the top from 2009.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower, alternate this is the top from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to turn higher, but look very weak with divergencies.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up, divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turning up, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turning up, below 75.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up with double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - multiple higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d cycle low, now higher into 20d cycle high. The 40w cycle high divides better in three, there is no clear 20w high.

Week 16 for 40w cycle. I expect 40w cycle low around June consisting of three extended 10w cycles.
Week 29, at a high of at least 40w magnitude... and very likely 18m high too.