Weekly review / Седмичен преглед

Huge rally for four weeks and the indexes met my target. It was too fast so its changes my longer term view. This strong move could mean a move to higher highs has began, or it is a part of crazy sideway correction and ofter a top we will see a sell off to the lower end of the range ~1120. Now when Europe is "saved" and considering seasonality the second scenario has low probability.

This two scenarios are shown on the chart.I expect short term peak to take shape and a pullback to support ~1220 or the congestion zone around 1190.
If SPX500 break bellow support 1175 the second scenario will have very high odds. But for now there is no such signs.

Closer look at the 60-min chart with the support levels and Fibo retracement.

I have begun studying Hurst cycles, I am still an amateur:) but I will show my "research" because it fits my longer term view.
The topping of the 54 month and the second 18 month cycle brought the sell off. Now the next 18 month cycle and the 9 month are rising. Considering seasonality and that the high of the 9 month cycle is in January I do not expect top until that time. SPX500 almost touched 1300 so this move will bring probably new highs. The bigger 54M cycle is already pointing down, in March 2012 the 18M will reach 1/3 of its time and after that it becomes dangerous.... according to the cycles.
I will not trade according to the cycle, but is fun using them and at first glance they look useful.

Long term view moving up at least till mid January and higher highs. Top in March? - Hurst cycles says it will be an important top. Lets see what will happen.If we see MACD divergence on the weekly chart it will be a very important top.