Mar 21, 2015

Very long term

I was playing with the monthly charts and what I see is topping in 2015, deep correction into 2016, another strong move up and than who knows...
the "CBs are almighty" bubble bursting or this time is different.
I know such long time frames are not fro trading, but the charts are interesting and look like a good road map.
Short said I see a right translated 9 years cycle which is very bullish and EW a missing major wave IV so my conclusion the next top should be important with big decline, but I doubt it will be a major top.

SP500 cycles since the last secular bear low. The 9 years nominal cycle lasts usually 7 years. The bottom of the last bear market is probably an important bottom and 18 years cycle bottom(the green arrows mark 18 years cycle bottoms).
The move higher is right translated... really veeery stretched to the right side. The subsequent move lower for the 9 years cycle low should be compressed in time and probably it will last less than 12 months. Two options 2008 style crash or the cycle of a bigger degree is dominant that is why we see so stretched to the right side cycle. 2007 was 18 cycle top that is why crash fits better, but now this is only 9 years cycle top and a deep correction should be followed by another move higher for an 18 years cycle top - that will look much better.
And on really very long term scale I think one secular bull-bear cycle corresponds to 54 years Hurst cycle. The last 54 years nominal cycle low should be the low of the previous secular bear and if you count three 18 years cycles we should expect a secular bear low in 2023. Probably it will not be different this time... as always:)

The DAX chart looks easier to count Elliot waves. You can choose your scenario bullish(green) or bearish A-B-C (red). I think that the bears will be frustrated for several more years.

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