Apr 30, 2015
EURUSD
I have written about the different markets which should reverse this summer. In the next weeks I should update the charts... I think NATGAS reversed today, and EURUSD - many could be caught off guard:)
Long USD and short EUR the surest bet.... not so fast.
I have shown this chart a few months ago and now updated.
Everybody watching now wave 4 and waiting for the next wave lower..... I pray to see such development, but I suspect mister market will not reward everybody, it will be too easy.
Currently an impulse is running, it is either wave C of a correction or wave 3. When it is over(probably around 1,15) and we see the reaction, we will know what is going on. Sharp reversal USD bulls win:) weak pullback and one more high and we have confirmed bottom for the EURUSD.
I hope you was not too greedy and took profits around the target 1.04-1.05
Everybody counting wave 4 and why not finished impulse with expanded wave 5 and the bottom is behind us?
Wave 1-3 15 cent -> 1,618x0.15 -> 0.24 cent -> 1.28-0.24=1.04 perfect target hit and trend line hit above.
Apr 26, 2015
Weekly review
Short term view - more to the upside.
Intermediate term view - after a new ATH(SP500) a correction to begin for a few weeks.
At last it looks like we have only one scenario left - the expected new ATH before a correction.
SP500 looks like it will make a new ATH Nasdaq celebrating new closing high and waiting for a new ATH... great but the other indexes DJI, DJT, Russell200, NYSE does not look bullish, market breadth does not look healthy, the cycles are mature... so I think SP500 and Nasdaq will make new highs the other indexes probably not and correction will follow.
Everybody is watching the wedge/ED targets 2150 and even 2250 so I think the formation will end with a surprise. Two options - the first the prices move much higher, but given the other indexes, indicators,cycles and so on this looks less probable the pattern is running for very long time 5 months already another month or two is not realistic. The other option - the pattern to be completed but short of its target and reversing suddenly and violently.
Do not expect that "everybody" is right... the markets do not work this way.
I will watch closely 2130-2135 for possible top, move below 2090 will confirm that a move to the downside has begun and this time it should be of a higher degree not just a short living pullback.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - I can not see something else than a new ATH. The measurements are pointing to the 2130-2135 area. This is 20 points lower than the wedge/ED upper boundary and it will look great to surprise most of the traders. The reversal should be sharp... so you must act fast.
Intermediate term - now only the preferred scenarios has left.
Long term - no change.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - does not look healthy. The SP500 is few points shy of new ATH and instead of the indicators going through the roof all a see is lower highs and indicators in the middle of their ranges.... where is the strength? where is the enthusiasm? They look just tired.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs... lack of strength so far.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but making lower high.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal and entered overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower highs and in the middle of the range. Where is the strength?
Fear Indicator VIX - long term higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and in the middle of the range. Where is the strength?
HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 12 of the 20 week cycle.... it looks more and more like 40 week cycle low to be expected than an 18 month cycle. I have wrote already about that... I will adjust the degree of the lows later.
Intermediate term view - after a new ATH(SP500) a correction to begin for a few weeks.
At last it looks like we have only one scenario left - the expected new ATH before a correction.
SP500 looks like it will make a new ATH Nasdaq celebrating new closing high and waiting for a new ATH... great but the other indexes DJI, DJT, Russell200, NYSE does not look bullish, market breadth does not look healthy, the cycles are mature... so I think SP500 and Nasdaq will make new highs the other indexes probably not and correction will follow.
Everybody is watching the wedge/ED targets 2150 and even 2250 so I think the formation will end with a surprise. Two options - the first the prices move much higher, but given the other indexes, indicators,cycles and so on this looks less probable the pattern is running for very long time 5 months already another month or two is not realistic. The other option - the pattern to be completed but short of its target and reversing suddenly and violently.
Do not expect that "everybody" is right... the markets do not work this way.
I will watch closely 2130-2135 for possible top, move below 2090 will confirm that a move to the downside has begun and this time it should be of a higher degree not just a short living pullback.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - I can not see something else than a new ATH. The measurements are pointing to the 2130-2135 area. This is 20 points lower than the wedge/ED upper boundary and it will look great to surprise most of the traders. The reversal should be sharp... so you must act fast.
Intermediate term - now only the preferred scenarios has left.
Long term - no change.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - does not look healthy. The SP500 is few points shy of new ATH and instead of the indicators going through the roof all a see is lower highs and indicators in the middle of their ranges.... where is the strength? where is the enthusiasm? They look just tired.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs... lack of strength so far.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but making lower high.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal and entered overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - lower highs and in the middle of the range. Where is the strength?
Fear Indicator VIX - long term higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and in the middle of the range. Where is the strength?
HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 12 of the 20 week cycle.... it looks more and more like 40 week cycle low to be expected than an 18 month cycle. I have wrote already about that... I will adjust the degree of the lows later.
Apr 18, 2015
Weekly review
Short term view - I think more to the downside.
Intermediate term view - just waiting....
Another week and more of the same.... it is driving me crazy already. Short term on the right side again even with this mess down up down and the bigger picture not clear again.
From EW perspective nothing has changed from last week all three scenarios are possible. The problem is:
- DJI, SP500, Nasdaq look... lets say Ok for last 5 of ED - the other indexes Russell2000 high probability that it has finished it pattern, NYSE you can count finished ED, DJT could not hold above MA200, Europe plunging lower.
- Technical indicators look awful especially on the other indexes.
- Cycles are in their time band to print a high for the 40 day and 20 week cycle.
So I would say at the moment I am neutral to bearish. The risk reward chasing long is not worth any more. This is a time only for short term traders.
How to trade it... SP500 we have 5 waves lower it could be the last wave of a flat green B, the first leg of a-b-c for E triangle.... or it could be just bearish and something to the downside has begun. In all three cases we should see something to the upside soon. If it is corrective and weak you can short the move with stop above the last high 2112. If the bearish scenario play out great, if it is the triangle small profit it is ok. If we have wave B we should see a strong reversal on Monday on a dip you can buy longs with stop below the las low 2072... that is more for short term trades.
Looking the other indexes I think we will see more to the downside.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - all three scenarios are from EW perspective are still alive. Looking at the other indexes I would say expect at least one more push lower for E of a triangle.
Intermediate term - no change.
Long term - no change
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - mixed... nothing which could help us at the moment.
McClellan Oscillator - touched the lower BB a bounce expected?
McClellan Summation Index - lower high, still buy signal
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal
Bullish Percentage - another low high but still nothing bearish
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range
Fear Indicator VIX - another long term higher low
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, another lower high.
HURST CYCLES
Day 11 this is the second 40 day cycle of a 20 week cycle and we are in the time band for a top of this cycle.
Week 11 we should see soon a top.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Price flip and only 8 days of a sell setup.
Intermediate term view - just waiting....
Another week and more of the same.... it is driving me crazy already. Short term on the right side again even with this mess down up down and the bigger picture not clear again.
From EW perspective nothing has changed from last week all three scenarios are possible. The problem is:
- DJI, SP500, Nasdaq look... lets say Ok for last 5 of ED - the other indexes Russell2000 high probability that it has finished it pattern, NYSE you can count finished ED, DJT could not hold above MA200, Europe plunging lower.
- Technical indicators look awful especially on the other indexes.
- Cycles are in their time band to print a high for the 40 day and 20 week cycle.
So I would say at the moment I am neutral to bearish. The risk reward chasing long is not worth any more. This is a time only for short term traders.
How to trade it... SP500 we have 5 waves lower it could be the last wave of a flat green B, the first leg of a-b-c for E triangle.... or it could be just bearish and something to the downside has begun. In all three cases we should see something to the upside soon. If it is corrective and weak you can short the move with stop above the last high 2112. If the bearish scenario play out great, if it is the triangle small profit it is ok. If we have wave B we should see a strong reversal on Monday on a dip you can buy longs with stop below the las low 2072... that is more for short term trades.
Looking the other indexes I think we will see more to the downside.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - all three scenarios are from EW perspective are still alive. Looking at the other indexes I would say expect at least one more push lower for E of a triangle.
Intermediate term - no change.
Long term - no change
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - mixed... nothing which could help us at the moment.
McClellan Oscillator - touched the lower BB a bounce expected?
McClellan Summation Index - lower high, still buy signal
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal
Bullish Percentage - another low high but still nothing bearish
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range
Fear Indicator VIX - another long term higher low
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, another lower high.
HURST CYCLES
Day 11 this is the second 40 day cycle of a 20 week cycle and we are in the time band for a top of this cycle.
Week 11 we should see soon a top.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Price flip and only 8 days of a sell setup.
Apr 17, 2015
Apr 15, 2015
Update
SP500 touched 2083(close to my target 2080) and moved higher, but it does not feel right. It looks more like a-b-c and I suspect we will visit 2080 again.
RSI and MACD divergence, the DAX does not look ready with his correction only choppy moves to the upside... careful with longs.
This will be negated if the indexes reverse sharply and SP500 moves above 2108 c=a and the upper trend line connecting the last three highs.
Apr 11, 2015
Weekly review
Short term view - I think retracement and than up again.
Intermediate term view - more time is needed the pattern to be finished before a meaningful correction.
As I wrote I do not believe in the bearish case and the indexes turned up on Monday as expected. Given the strength I think the preferred scenario for a ATH before something meaningful to the downside has now much high probability.
Nothing new long term or intermediate term, short term slight variations are possible.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - preferred scenario something like 50% retracement to around 2080 +-5 points the support zone 2076-2090.
If we see a deeper retracement to around 2060 probably we have a triangle.
Surprising scenario will be if we see a move below 2030-2040.
Intermediate term - no change.
Long term - no change.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are now more bullish... but they look weak and I suspect will show divergences and weakness when we see higher high.
McClellan Oscillator - above the zero line, but does not show strength... long term lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, but looks weak for now.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - probably will reach 75 and will make another lower high.
Fear Indicator VIX - outside the BB... I expect retracement up the indexes down.
Advance-Decline Issues - climbing up... but I expect another lower high.
HURST CYCLES
The next 40 day cycle is running.... only the bears were surprised around the bottom:)
Week 10 of the current 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 4 of a setup... there is high probability that it will be finished.
I think Russell2000 shows more clear picture and the count says the same one move lower and one move higher... which is the same like SP500 B->C or triangle what so ever. The current leg up is choppy and overlapping and it makes more sense if we see one more move lower to finish wave 4.
Intermediate term view - more time is needed the pattern to be finished before a meaningful correction.
As I wrote I do not believe in the bearish case and the indexes turned up on Monday as expected. Given the strength I think the preferred scenario for a ATH before something meaningful to the downside has now much high probability.
Nothing new long term or intermediate term, short term slight variations are possible.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - preferred scenario something like 50% retracement to around 2080 +-5 points the support zone 2076-2090.
If we see a deeper retracement to around 2060 probably we have a triangle.
Surprising scenario will be if we see a move below 2030-2040.
Intermediate term - no change.
Long term - no change.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are now more bullish... but they look weak and I suspect will show divergences and weakness when we see higher high.
McClellan Oscillator - above the zero line, but does not show strength... long term lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, but looks weak for now.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - probably will reach 75 and will make another lower high.
Fear Indicator VIX - outside the BB... I expect retracement up the indexes down.
Advance-Decline Issues - climbing up... but I expect another lower high.
HURST CYCLES
The next 40 day cycle is running.... only the bears were surprised around the bottom:)
Week 10 of the current 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Day 4 of a setup... there is high probability that it will be finished.
I think Russell2000 shows more clear picture and the count says the same one move lower and one move higher... which is the same like SP500 B->C or triangle what so ever. The current leg up is choppy and overlapping and it makes more sense if we see one more move lower to finish wave 4.
Apr 4, 2015
Weekly review
Short term view - I expect the indexes to open lower, but Monday afternoon or Tuesday to turn up.
Intermediate term view - just waiting....
Another week.... complete waste of time:) Lets face it 4 months waste of time... not really something to trade unless you are a day trader.
Nothing new, below the charts updated.
So far the forecast were ok we did not fall into bull or bear traps... but I will lie to you if I tell you how and when this mess will end.
To be honest - I am sick and tired from this shitty price action.... come on pick a direction mister market.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - I do not believe in 1-2 i-ii it has never worked during this bull market. Even if we saw already an intermediate term top, I expect the indexes to visit the 2085-2090 area one more time.
Intermediate term - no change
Long term - no change
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - no edge or clues... Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index is pointing to a bottom. The others does not really point to a top too.
McClellan Oscillator - nothing interesting.
McClellan Summation Index - nothing interesting.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in oversold territory, we are close rather to a bottom than a top.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, but nothing bearish.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oscillates around the middle of the range
Fear Indicator VIX - nothing interesting. Long term series of higher lows indication that something bigger to the downside is coming.
Advance-Decline Issues - oscillates around the middle of the range
HURST CYCLES
A new 40 day cycle is running or if we see a new low I will move the low for the 40 day cycle... waiting
Week 9... I am waiting to see how the low of this cycle will look like. It is possible that it is of a lower degree.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Nothing interesting with this choppy moves....
Intermediate term view - just waiting....
Another week.... complete waste of time:) Lets face it 4 months waste of time... not really something to trade unless you are a day trader.
Nothing new, below the charts updated.
So far the forecast were ok we did not fall into bull or bear traps... but I will lie to you if I tell you how and when this mess will end.
To be honest - I am sick and tired from this shitty price action.... come on pick a direction mister market.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
Short term - I do not believe in 1-2 i-ii it has never worked during this bull market. Even if we saw already an intermediate term top, I expect the indexes to visit the 2085-2090 area one more time.
Intermediate term - no change
Long term - no change
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - no edge or clues... Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index is pointing to a bottom. The others does not really point to a top too.
McClellan Oscillator - nothing interesting.
McClellan Summation Index - nothing interesting.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - in oversold territory, we are close rather to a bottom than a top.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, but nothing bearish.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oscillates around the middle of the range
Fear Indicator VIX - nothing interesting. Long term series of higher lows indication that something bigger to the downside is coming.
Advance-Decline Issues - oscillates around the middle of the range
HURST CYCLES
A new 40 day cycle is running or if we see a new low I will move the low for the 40 day cycle... waiting
Week 9... I am waiting to see how the low of this cycle will look like. It is possible that it is of a lower degree.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Nothing interesting with this choppy moves....
Apr 3, 2015
HAPPY EASTER
HAPPY EASTER!
Enjoy the holidays with your family and friends.
It looks like the same fractal to me..... so more choppy moves expected and one more higher high.
Great pattern since the end of November 2014.... one more triangle because it is not choppy enough:))))
Apr 2, 2015
Update
The current pattern I see.... I have never seen this bearish 1-2 i-ii count working in this bull market, so I still think the more probable scenario is a move higher.
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