Update

Around the end of the month we should see 5w low and the first half of September 5w high.
All indices show impulsive declin, usualy it means more to the downside.
The most simple pattern is we have a top with daily/weekly and market breadth divergences, but until we see the next low and high for confirmation you can still speculate that something else is developing.

It is taking too long so more likely this is the top not B wave.
Trying to find bullish pattern - flat correction a-b-c red or with more downside and high in September ending diagonal 1-2 or expanding ED C-wave... very low probability.

Update

Nothing happened this week so nothing new - waiting for c/B to be completed. If you use Fibo measurement target is around 7850. Reminder if it is not a B wave it is THE TOP.

Mature 10w and 20d cycle highs early next week expect the top. Again if it is corrective a-b-c pattern around the end of the month we will see 20w low. If not decline starts and it will continue until the next 20w low in November.

The DAX is ready for a top too with ending diagonal and divergence.... no no this is a bull flag.

Update

I still think the most likely pattern is b-wave... and this is the bullish outcome. If this is wrong we are seeing what should have happened in September - completed sideways correction 4th wave and now the final 5th wave. No it is not just starting it is finishing just look the indicators and market breadth. Good luck to those who bought break out from "bullish flag".

You have impulse in final stages. What could it be - the c-wave to complete bigger b-wave, the fifth wave of a bigger pattern, or i/5 of a bigger pattern. The only bullish pattern is the last one.... for a few weeks longer, but looking at indicators market breadth and other indices this is not the most likely outcome.

If you think such b-wave is strange/rare/bullshit - just look at the previous two tops one more 10w cycle before the sell off begins.

This is if the b-wave is wrong - short said it is over... and with this wedges looks great. Ask the TA "expert" what happens with wedges.

Market Breadth - if it is the beginning the indicators and market breadth will reset and turn higher, but the opposite is happening - simple it is a top.
McClellan Oscillator
McClellan Summation Index
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index
Bullish Percentage
Percent of Stocks above MA50
Advance-Decline Issues
Fear Indicator VIX

Update

The pattern is on track, fake break lower on FOMC day before completing the e wave of a triangle two months after the correction started for 10w high. Now when everybody is convinced that the correction is over C wave will follow and a low two months after the first decline to complete 10w/20w low.

Visual the cycles, because of the triangle the current 10w cycle does not divide in 2x5w cycles - it looks more like 20d-5w-20d sequence.

Update

Maybe sligthly bigger triangle with test of the trend line from last week and closing the gap, but at the end nothing new.

Update

Nothing new to add - the b-wave is close to completition, next week the c-wave starts. Targets c=a around 7200 and 1.618 extension around 7000 testing support and MA200 daily.

Update

There is no triangle, which is not a surprise. The b-wave and 10w high is completing and next week the c-wave into 20w low first half of August starts.
Do you notice how all comments are allowed - this is archive of the stupidity at important high.

b-wave running as suggested last week and to wait for 10w high mid-July. Notice how since the high of the third wave every high hits the RSI trendline....

The cycles confirm the pattern with two months between the top of the fifth wave and the b-wave.

Last week posted Europe weekly chart if you think SPX is different good luck - the same pattern with the same perfect measerments exactly 4.5 years after the previous high. Next is decline into August 20w low and high in September 20w high then lower to the next trend line and support.

Update

SPX is completing the current short term move higher. Next is a decline... which could be delayed for completing a tringle.

Everybody watching the triangle and continuation higher - the masses wrong as usual. Quick look at the RSI and it is clear - leg lower, corrective leg higher. If there is a triangle it is pointing to a continuation lower.

Or it could be more simple just lower.

And Europe(EU50) - very "bullish" looking chart. Clean waves double zig-zag with perfect Fibo measurments, you can even dig deeper the a,b,c waves and you will see the same, multiple RSI divergences,four and a half years after the previous top - good luck with the continuation higher.

Update

Not much different from the last post.
The pattern looks like a wedge lower and sharp, but short living move up should follow.

It takes longer to move lower and the move up into 5w high should be short living.

Update

The zig-zag higher now zig-zag lower.

Short term cycles - if we have the usual length in the next 3-5 days we will see 5w high.

Update

Short term - top next week.
Intermediate term lower into July - I will not be surprised to see the whole advance retraced.
Long term - major top completing the whole bull market from 2009.

I am traveling abroad for several weeks so I will not post updates.

It took two weeks but there we are at the top. Watching other indices like DJ and DAX it will take a few days topping.
SPX maybe this - https://invst.ly/1hrx-l
DJ should complete the c-wave https://invst.ly/1hrxy6
DAX should complete the correction - https://invst.ly/1hrxxl

Long term - the bubble accelerating with every leg. The third leg reached vertical phase with very narrow participation and awful indicators. Now follows what every time happens with a bubble.

Update

As expected double top for diivergence on the daily chart. Perfect wave needs iv-v/5. It will run the stops and suck in the last sucker buying the "break out" while making double top with double divergence.
The next top was expected somewhere between mid and end of May - theere you have it 18 weeks, right on schedule.

Update

In March the expectation was for a move higher into mid-May or later then decline into 18m low in July. Now we have the move up into mid-May but different than expected. Instead of retrace and letting it bleed into July we see double down on greed. The result - now it is 100% sure it is GAME OVER.
Market breadrth - awful for months, double and tripple divergences long term. Indicators with divergences monthly and weekly.
Cycles - 18m high, 4y high, 20w high... could last another week if we are lucky.
Pattern - from 2020 some see completed impulse, I see a-b-c. Most bullish this is the top of wave-3 so expect 20% or more correction for wave-4 and final fifth wave - I highly doubt it.
Short term the only "positive" signs - RSI was overbought and just turned lower so maybe we need to see divergence and other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,DAX made a 5w low the end of April and after that we have one zig-zag up and down... it does not feel like completed pattern. There is two possiblities - triangle or flat, triangle will take too much time so more likely flat.
This could give us another week, week and a half for the pattern and the 20w high to be completed.... or it just continues lower who knows.

If it is impulse it is done - ther trend line is broken and we have ugly daily and weekly cnadles. There is a chance watching other indices that it is complex pattern and there is a flat to be completed testing the trend line and double top before turning lower for a long time.

Pattern - minimum decline 20% to 6000 for wave-4. I do not buy this, it is over.

Short term cycles - turned lower exacly at the day... if we are lucky there is one more week.

Long term cycles - 18m and 4y cycle highs.

Update

The impulse playing out as expected - DJ looks like ED,NDX/SPX with normal impulse.
Pattern and cycles are in the late stages... next week should be game over.

The final impulse playing out as expected, currently in v/5.

DJ will be the ED completed....

Daily cycles late in the cycle may be a few more days.

The upper trend line has been reached with double RSI divergence on the weekly chart. Impulse or zig-zag - in both cases it is a significant high. All this four years after the previous important top.

Update

If you look at indices like NYSE,DJ,SPXEW,DAX you will see clear decline for the expected 5w low. Sharp move up on Thursday - with very high probability from the 5w low. On the other side this happened on day 9 - in the late stages for the 20d high so the reversal on Friday is not a surprise.
On one side the indices should move up into a 5w high on the other side decline into 20d low. Not sure how it will play out. My best guess at the moment is shown on the chart.

NDX so far zig-zag for w5 - either it continues iii/iv/v of 5 or if you take into account that more time is needed it could be wave i of 5 for ED.

Update

The short term pattern seems to play out - waves 4 and 5. The question is how long it will take before turning lower - from time perspective another 2-3 weeks will look better. Market breadth with long term double divergences, needs some time to turn lower and maybe short term divergences.

It looks like wave 4 and 5 playing out.

Possible patterns - wedging impulse or double zig-zag with Y the same size and mirror image of W.

Some thoughts about cycles..... when a cycle of the same degree makes a lower low it means the cycle of one higher degree turned lower.
Example - after a 40w low in November last year we have a lower low in March this year which means the 18m turned lower, but instead of a pause and continuation into July we see sharp move up. This should not happen and it is extremely rare.
But if you go back to 2020 where the current 9y cycle begun... do you notice something? We have a sequences of 2.5 years consisting of one 18m and one 12m(40w+20w) cycle. Back then I was expecting 4y cycle low in 2023 which did not occur.
If you assume the 7y cycle does not follow the theory and instead of 2x3.5y consists of 3x2.5y cycles the anomaly explained above sudenly is perfectly normal.
It think this is what is happening, which means to expect 4y cycle high followed by 18m cycle low late 2027 for 7y cycle low.

Update

This is 4y cycle high do not get too excited. The usual tech stocks... and the other indices just double top.

Probably impulse with extended third wave. The usual Fibo measurements for such pattern are shown. Less likely extended fifth wave.

Possible big picture pattern.... many see impulse

Zig-zag and expanded flat work perfect. All the a/b/c are at 20w highs/lows and all at Fibo levels.
What is the character of this wave - extreme speed so third or c. Is this something in the middle or the end - both pattern and cycles are saying something is ending. Which means this is most likely c-wave.

Update

The pattern/cycles are developping faster, but still the same. Updatet the charts from last week... nothing new to add. We have the first zig-zag higher for 5w high next is decline for 5w low.

We have a zig-zag most likely completed at 5w high with a=c.

Updatet cycle chart.

Update

Slightly lower to complete the pattern and reversal. I think we saw the expected 20w low with cycle length 18 weeks.

Most likely a high next week for a 20d high folowed by a pullback for 20d low.

Projecting the cycles we should see the following path for the next two months and the expectd 20w high.

Update

The alternate scenario is playing out - impulse lower. If you look at NYSE/DJ/SPXEW show pretty clean impulse and a few more days are needed to complete the pattern. From price perspective the price is between 23%-38% Fibo retracement and between two support levels... the next support level is 200-250 points lower.
If you look the short term cycles we are at day 5 for the 20d cycle so minimum 2 days more likely 3-4 days to be completed. The longer term cycles - week 18 so close to 20w low. Market breadth is showing divergences.
Short said whatch for a low around Thursday next week worst case 200-250 points lower.

Choppy impulse - probable count similar to NYSE/DJ/SPXEW

Techical analysis does not look good - price moved below support and MA200 and next support and 38% fibo is 200 points lower. Overall we know it is a bearish setup because there is more to the downside at least until July.

DAX is close to major trend line from the 2022 low

EUR/USD needs one final push lower for perfect impulse too.

Update

The November low has been reached as expected, this happens at week 17(average for the 20w cycle is 16-18) the previous two were 16 weeks long, there is possible completed pattern, market breadth is oversold but no divergences - possible bottom but not important one.
SPXEW/DJ/NYSE are showing some sort of impulse lower too...there is room for interpretation and say this is the third wave with 4 and 5 to follow. In this case the third wave is extended so the fifth wave will make just sligthly lower low and will not take much time.
This is the situation - it fits with my expectations for 20w low and bounce higher in April. If this is not the 20w low expect it in the first week of April.

I see corrective mess - flat-Xwave-double zig-zag. Alternate this is shomehow ugly impulse with two more shallow waves for 20w low.

From pure technical analysis point of view it looks like H&S - next is the right shoulder and target for the pattern around 6000