Weekly preview

Short term view - I do not know.
Intermediate term view - the next bigger move is lower, but it could last a few weeks before it begins.

The indexes are lower for the week as expected, but so far the move does not look very promising. It is corrective - choppy and overlapping.

The big picture has not changed expecting a bigger move lower for the 40 week cycle low in October, but the short term pattern is not clear.
EW - the move lower looks corrective... it can extend lower or after correction a new high follows.
Cycles - Friday is day 43. It could be a low for the 40 day cycle with the next 40 day cycle making higher high or it could extend a few more days lower.
Market breadth - for the intermediate term negative, but for the short term correcting for several weeks for example McClellan Oscillator making second trough... smells like some move higher is coming.
Indicators - on the daily chart MACD has corrected lower to the zero line and the Histogram is making second trough.... like market breadth they are saying we have a correction for several weeks and to expect something higher. We could see lower for a few days, but after that a sharp retracement should follow.

Do you see what I mean - it is impossible to make a reliable forecast for the next 1-2 weeks. The market could take different paths. It could plunge for several days followed by sharp retracement, or it could try to make a new high... or something else which I do not see.
Personally I do not trade in the last two months and several times in comments I wrote that I am not interested to time this top and trade it... now you know why. Just waiting for a sign that something lower has begun or the move higher is exhausted.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - closer look the 10min chart... it is a mess,choppy,overlapping. This is a corrective move.

No clue which path the market will take.

Intermediate term - I prefer the bullish options 1-2 i-ii(green) or 1-2 of ending diagonal(white). We will see the correction in October and than we will know.

Long term - no change, cool off and reset of the indicators expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - are telling us that we have a correction for a few weeks. We need more to the downside so that some of them reset before the next big move higher, but short term McClellan Oscillator could be hinting to expect something higher.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero for a few weeks and working on a second trough.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, no signs of a weakness.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range heading lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher as expected. Another low with divergence to expect?
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range after lower high.


HURST CYCLES
Day 43 of the 40 day cycle... we should be close to a bottom.

Week 9 of the second 20 week cycle... not much left to the upside.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Unfinished business 13 is missing on the weekly chart for a countdown. Will it be finished.... I do not know.

Update

The indexes refuse to move lower... it is taking too long. If we do not see big red candle soon I am afraid we will have to watch this bullshit crawling 20 points higher another two weeks.
If the indexes continue higher probably we have much bigger diagonal for wave 5 and stealth 40 day cycle low with the next one making slightly higher high as expected for right translated cycle.

Similar picture for Russell2000

Weekly preview

Short term view - move lower expected.
Intermediate term view - lower for 2-3 weeks than higher again for 2-3 weeks.

More of the same 5 weeks sideway move, but the indexes continue working on their pattern. Nothing new just the charts updated.
We saw one final wave higher as expected and the pattern looks now finished. We saw topping around FOMC 17.08 and second top full moon 18.08. We have leg lower and pop-up after the news as expected.... only one big red candle is missing. If the indexes start moving higher again - no clue... maybe iii of 5.

Yes move lower is expected, but do not get too bearish. The 40 day cycle is bullish right translated and it has entered the time window for a low. So any move lower should be short living... it can be sharp, but should not last more than 10 trading days and the size the usual 3%-4%. Even if I am wrong we need topping process and we should see second top for some kind of a double top/M pattern.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern looks finished I expected to see a move lower.

Intermediate term - nothing new divergences and move lower expected, but I do not think that this is a major top.

Long term - nothing new, I think the indicators need time to reset before the next big move higher.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week the indicators look bearish and correction is running already according to market breadth.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - second top with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - second top with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - very tight BB the volatility should shoot up in the next weeks.
Advance-Decline Issues - weakness and divergence.
NYSE New Highs-New Lows - diverging less stocks are making higher highs.
Percent of Stocks above MA200 - entering bullish mode close to 80.


HURST CYCLES
Day 38 of the 40 day cycle. We are in the time window for a bottom so any move lower should be short living and in worst case the top will be tested.

Week 8 of the second 20 week cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have combo finished and countdown at 11. No price flip so far.

Update

It looks more and more like a top to me with the divergences on the daily chart and finished pattern on the hourly chart.
The EW pattern changed, it looks like an ED from early August (not just the last 5 of 5 of 5). This is the weak spot of EW it often mutates and you can not predict it no matter how good you are. Anyway this are small waves from lower degree and we knew to expect something lower this week.
Usually the big boys move the price in the opposite direction when a news is expected(FOMC this time), so I will be surprised if we do not see a pop-up higher, but after that a move lower should begin.

Daily chart - next target should be the support area and MA50

Weekly preview

Short term view - next week one more higher high and reversal.
Intermediate term view - after a top we should see 2-3 weeks lower.

At first glance more of the same 4 weeks sideway move, but the indexes continue to work on the final small waves and managed to squeeze a few points higher as expected. The pattern looks now mature... not much left to the upside price and time. I am struggling to find something bullish, but I can not, all signs are bearish:
- TA indicators with divergences on the hourly and daily chart.
- EW pattern - the indexes are heading for 5 of 5 of 5.
- Cycles - day 33 of the 40 day cycle, mature cycle and we should see a top soon.
- Market breadth - a lot of divergences.
- TomDemark - combo finished on the weekly chart.

We should see a top next week. I think the leg lower will not last very long. The indexes are above MA50 and the 40 day cycle is right translated which means to expect at least deep retracement before more serious sell off. VIX is at very low levels and Bollinger Bands are very tight so expect the volatility to increase soon and swings up and down in the coming months.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I expect wave 5 and the whole move from the June low to complete next week.

Intermediate term - Above the June low we have a bullish pattern. Last week I have shown the obvious choice wave 3 and 1-2 i-ii count(green). I am still not fully convinced that the indexes are in wave 3. The other option is a diagonal it fits much better with cycles and market breadth. Since February we have waves with internal structure 5-3-5 and the Fibo relationship between the two impulses is 0,681. At day 33 of the 40 day cycle we have right translated bullish cycle and the next 40 day cycle should make higher high followed by a 40 week cycle top. Smells like a diagonal.....
We will see what happens in the second half of August and the first half September.

Long term - switched to the diagonal scenario.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week.
McClellan Oscillator - one more high for the indicator and divergence expected.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - second top with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - second top with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - very tight BB the volatility should shoot up in the next weeks.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and divergence expected.


HURST CYCLES
Day 33 of the 40 day cycle. The cycle looks bullish right translated usually in this case the next cycle makes higher high..... diagonal?

Week 7 of the second 20 week cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have combo finished and countdown at 10.... short term top and one more higher high to finish the countdown? diagonal?

Update

I was commenting Russell2000 expecting v of 5... it is lagging did not make higher high yesterday, but DJ CFDs is showing clear pattern and it is moving higher for its v of 5
Best case this is iii of 5 and the indexes have a few more days higher(green).

Weekly preview

Short term view - higher next week, the current move from June is not finished.
Intermediate term view - after it is finished(in the next week or two) lower for 6-8 weeks into October.

The market fall a sleep for three weeks... the indexes are around the same levels. It is not a surprise that the rally has stalled (just look at market breadth), but on the other side "nothing happening" is information too and now the pattern looks more bullish. First such sideway move in a tight range is usually a consolidation and wave 4 from an impulse. Not a perfect impulse from the June low wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 (because of that and market breadth I was betting on more bearish pattern), but five waves higher is an impulse... just waiting for higher high from DJ for a confirmation. Second the indexes are spending more time around the highs and cycles look more bullish now.

EW - bullish pattern waiting for a week or two to be finished and after an impulse correction follows.
Cycles - the price has not changed a lot but hanging around the highs for longer time means bullish cycle. The average length for 40 week cycle is 32-34 weeks with 25 weeks from the February low 3/4 of the 40 week cycle should be behind us. First the signs are for a bullish cycle right translated with 3/4 of the time moving higher, but on the other side we are entering the time window when cycles should start turning lower.
Market breadth - the indicators are in bullish mode, but making second top with divergences... indexes should follow soon moving lower and market breadth should reset before the next move higher.
Seasonality - not the best for stocks. We are entering a period when stock usually correct lower.

All signs are pointing to a bullish pattern, a week or two the current move to be finished, but than lower for a correction. I think we will see wave ii of 3 with target the middle of the range mid-April to mid-June(see the second chart). Of course there is a bearish option, but as long as price stays above the June low the pattern stays bullish.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - higher for wave 5 from the June low.

Intermediate term - I have drawn deeper retracement because of market breadth and 40 week cycle low expected in October. The price likes to test such congestion zones around this levels are MA200 and 61,8 Fibo retracement. Minimum we should see test of the break out and MA50 around 2110. When the price starts moving lower we will see if it will be deeper retracement or the indexes will just burn time with sideway move.
The June low is the level which makes difference if this is bearish or bullish pattern.

Long term - the bearish pattern(if we see the price below the June low) is shown on this chart - three lower for A, three higher for B and final wave lower C for a flat correction. If you are a bear it looks nice, but you do not want to see this. It will just prolonge the bull market and it will move higher.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - do not look good at all second tops with divergences.... only McClellan Oscillator is pointing higher for the short term waiting to see divergences too.
McClellan Oscillator - one more high for the indicator and divergence expected.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - second top with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - second top with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - very low level and a lot of complacency.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and divergence expected.


HURST CYCLES
Day 28 of the 40 day cycle we are nearing the time window for a top of current daily cycle.

Week 6 of the second 20 week cycle. The 40 week cycle looks bullish now with the price moving higher 3/4 of the time.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
One more higher high and we will see a combo finished on the weekly chart. Time for an intermediate term top?