Dec 30, 2017
Update
Two weeks in a tight range, holidays:) Everybody celebrating their huge gains in 2017:)))
This decline on Friday makes the short term pattern ambiguous.... either we have a-b-c last two weeks and one final high or the correction has begun. I can find arguments for both cases. The next 1-2 trading days will show the exact short term pattern. Do not worry there will be enough opportunities to take profits or short if you want:) enjoy the holidays!!!!
I am using the time to prepare the long term update, which I will post on second of January.
I am almost ready with it and interesting is I see every asset sending the same message - expect intermediate term bottom/top(NATGAS and PM already reversed, the others need a few days to a few weeks). I do not think stocks will escape "gravity" and trade on their own.
Dec 24, 2017
Weekly preview
Short term view - one more high, it is a bull market what can go wrong:)
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top wave 3 expected soon.
Higher as expected and then levitating around this levels whole week. Nothing much new holidays - no reversal signature so far... it is a bull market so I will assume there is one more high. As a side note very often the reversal begins with long sideway move which looks corrective and suddenly accelerates in the opposite direction. So if you are a short term trader be cautious, there is indexes which are in a correction already like DAX,EEM,SOX. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - close to a top the pattern always gets ambiguous will we see one more wave higher or not. So far there is nor reversal pattern so I assume this is another wave iv. Reversal only if the price accelerates below 2675 and drops to 2660 or lower.
Intermediate term - in the final stages of wave 3. Fibo retracement 23,6% around 2540 and 38,2% around 2440 are shown on the chart.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not. I think it is not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, not signaling an imminent plunge lower, but some of them look tired and do not follow the price.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral, since the November low is not really moving up with the price.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still strong buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergences and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - small divergence and intermediate term it looks like rounding bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range. A/D cumulative is struggling and look like it is topping.
HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 5 of the 20 week cycle.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top wave 3 expected soon.
Higher as expected and then levitating around this levels whole week. Nothing much new holidays - no reversal signature so far... it is a bull market so I will assume there is one more high. As a side note very often the reversal begins with long sideway move which looks corrective and suddenly accelerates in the opposite direction. So if you are a short term trader be cautious, there is indexes which are in a correction already like DAX,EEM,SOX. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - close to a top the pattern always gets ambiguous will we see one more wave higher or not. So far there is nor reversal pattern so I assume this is another wave iv. Reversal only if the price accelerates below 2675 and drops to 2660 or lower.
Intermediate term - in the final stages of wave 3. Fibo retracement 23,6% around 2540 and 38,2% around 2440 are shown on the chart.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not. I think it is not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, not signaling an imminent plunge lower, but some of them look tired and do not follow the price.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral, since the November low is not really moving up with the price.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still strong buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergences and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - small divergence and intermediate term it looks like rounding bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range. A/D cumulative is struggling and look like it is topping.
HURST CYCLES
Day 26 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 5 of the 20 week cycle.
Dec 16, 2017
Weekly preview
Short term view - final high next week and then lower.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top expected, topping for a few weeks and a bigger decline in January.
The indexes made new highs as expected, we saw the last waves iv and v from the chart on Wednesday, NDX made finally higher high.... the price action looks like intermediate term top to me. I am out of bullish counts and patterns... the indicators look bad, cycles pointing to a high, market breadth is ok probably because we will see topping and the profitable sell opportunity will be later in January. For those who trade PM/miners - a low was expected around the end of the year when the stocks make an intermediate term top. I think we have an intermediate term low this week. The next long term update is in two weeks, but a thought it is better to post a chart timely:) See the last chart HUI. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - when this move makes final high I do not know how to count more impulses. I do not have more bullish counts and patterns.
This is 15min CFD chart - I will be surprised if we do not see one more high on Monday. I am not sure if the cash index will follow or not, but keep it in mind. Personally I trade CFD on the indexes.
Intermediate term - quick drop to support and MA50 around 2600 then test of the high, which should last several weeks. RSI does not look good with intermediate term and short term divergences.
Primary scenario at the moment is the top of wave 3 from Feb.2016.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look tired, but not signaling an intermediate plunge lower. I suppose the sell signal with really big profits and low risk will come in a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still strong buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergences and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - small divergence and it looks like rounding bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned sharply lower and currently in the middle of the range. A/D cumulative is struggling and look like it is topping.
HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.... time for mid cycle low next week.
Week 4 of the 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have finished combo 13 on the weekly chart. Waiting for sell signal - a price flip.
HUI Chart
Right on time as cycles said we are seeing intermediate term low around the end of the year. I think this is not a major low, I see a rally for a few months, but the pattern is just huge sideway W-X-Y.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term top expected, topping for a few weeks and a bigger decline in January.
The indexes made new highs as expected, we saw the last waves iv and v from the chart on Wednesday, NDX made finally higher high.... the price action looks like intermediate term top to me. I am out of bullish counts and patterns... the indicators look bad, cycles pointing to a high, market breadth is ok probably because we will see topping and the profitable sell opportunity will be later in January. For those who trade PM/miners - a low was expected around the end of the year when the stocks make an intermediate term top. I think we have an intermediate term low this week. The next long term update is in two weeks, but a thought it is better to post a chart timely:) See the last chart HUI. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - when this move makes final high I do not know how to count more impulses. I do not have more bullish counts and patterns.
This is 15min CFD chart - I will be surprised if we do not see one more high on Monday. I am not sure if the cash index will follow or not, but keep it in mind. Personally I trade CFD on the indexes.
Intermediate term - quick drop to support and MA50 around 2600 then test of the high, which should last several weeks. RSI does not look good with intermediate term and short term divergences.
Primary scenario at the moment is the top of wave 3 from Feb.2016.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look tired, but not signaling an intermediate plunge lower. I suppose the sell signal with really big profits and low risk will come in a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - neutral.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still strong buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergences and below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - small divergence and it looks like rounding bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned sharply lower and currently in the middle of the range. A/D cumulative is struggling and look like it is topping.
HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.... time for mid cycle low next week.
Week 4 of the 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have finished combo 13 on the weekly chart. Waiting for sell signal - a price flip.
HUI Chart
Right on time as cycles said we are seeing intermediate term low around the end of the year. I think this is not a major low, I see a rally for a few months, but the pattern is just huge sideway W-X-Y.
Dec 13, 2017
Update
Move higher as expected and now I am out of bullish counts:) last possibility is one more small iv and v to finish 5 green.
Dec 9, 2017
Weekly preview
Short term view - still missing the impulsive price action lower, I think we will see one more high.
Intermediate term view - close to intermediate term high and topping process in December.
We saw higher high with an exhaustion gap on Monday and a pull back... so far so good, but I do not see impulsive price action lower and looking other indexes short term up is expected. Intermediate term this should be the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the price action so far looks corrective not impulsive... I suspect bigger wave iv and one more high.
Intermediate term - the same like last week topping expected in December. Primary scenario the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some are turning lower, but other like McClellan Summation Index will look better if we see continuation for another 2-3 weeks higher.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero, more divergences?
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 70, no sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the 75 level, divergences before reversal?
Fear Indicator VIX - I expect more higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak plunged lower close to the zero level.
HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 3 of the next 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
After finished sell setup we have several days closing in the red... we will have confirmed sell signal when we see price flip on the weekly chart and this is close below 2585-2575 area for the next two weeks.
Intermediate term view - close to intermediate term high and topping process in December.
We saw higher high with an exhaustion gap on Monday and a pull back... so far so good, but I do not see impulsive price action lower and looking other indexes short term up is expected. Intermediate term this should be the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the price action so far looks corrective not impulsive... I suspect bigger wave iv and one more high.
Intermediate term - the same like last week topping expected in December. Primary scenario the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The next wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some are turning lower, but other like McClellan Summation Index will look better if we see continuation for another 2-3 weeks higher.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero, more divergences?
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - still above 70, no sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - around the 75 level, divergences before reversal?
Fear Indicator VIX - I expect more higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak plunged lower close to the zero level.
HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 3 of the next 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
After finished sell setup we have several days closing in the red... we will have confirmed sell signal when we see price flip on the weekly chart and this is close below 2585-2575 area for the next two weeks.
Dec 2, 2017
Weekly preview
Short term view - final wave higher.
Intermediate term view - now very close to intermediate term top, overall we should see topping process in December.
1-2 i-ii looked like the less likely scenario, but it has played out. I have suggested another one because RUT was already in iii of 3, Europe reversed long time ago, EM and tech were tired and reversed this week.... John Doe suggested that this is "rotation happening into the 'biggest' beneficiaries of U.S. tax reform" It makes sense last final hooray riding the news. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - last week too many options were possible, but now the pattern looks clear like 1-2 i-ii impulse with the last wave 5 running. The indicators say this is the more likely scenario.
Alternate the move could be finished, I have seen so many times the last missing 5 of 5 of 5 never appearing I would not be surprised.
Intermediate term - classical overthrow above the trend line and last blow off. Overall December looks like topping process up and down. First next week the current wave from mid November should be finished, then lower to test MA50, then higher to test the top and the trend line... I do not expect some serious sell off before January.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are bullish it will take time for topping and reversal which fits with the cycle and my expectation for a choppy December. The only warning signal is VIX, the indexes are exploding higher and it spikes higher to 12 instead of plunging to 9.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, but with intermediate term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - managed to move above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low despite the euphoria, first warning sign. I think we will see a series of higher low before a strong sell off.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading higher for the overbought level.
HURST CYCLES
Day 11 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 2 of the next 20 week cycle.
Here is top-to-top analysis. If it is right this should be 18 month cycle high.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Another sell setup finished on the daily chart and we have now 9-13-9 from the August low.
Intermediate term view - now very close to intermediate term top, overall we should see topping process in December.
1-2 i-ii looked like the less likely scenario, but it has played out. I have suggested another one because RUT was already in iii of 3, Europe reversed long time ago, EM and tech were tired and reversed this week.... John Doe suggested that this is "rotation happening into the 'biggest' beneficiaries of U.S. tax reform" It makes sense last final hooray riding the news. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - last week too many options were possible, but now the pattern looks clear like 1-2 i-ii impulse with the last wave 5 running. The indicators say this is the more likely scenario.
Alternate the move could be finished, I have seen so many times the last missing 5 of 5 of 5 never appearing I would not be surprised.
Intermediate term - classical overthrow above the trend line and last blow off. Overall December looks like topping process up and down. First next week the current wave from mid November should be finished, then lower to test MA50, then higher to test the top and the trend line... I do not expect some serious sell off before January.
Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning very bearish. The wave lower will show us if the move from the Feb.2016 is over or not.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are bullish it will take time for topping and reversal which fits with the cycle and my expectation for a choppy December. The only warning signal is VIX, the indexes are exploding higher and it spikes higher to 12 instead of plunging to 9.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, but with intermediate term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - managed to move above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low despite the euphoria, first warning sign. I think we will see a series of higher low before a strong sell off.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading higher for the overbought level.
HURST CYCLES
Day 11 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 2 of the next 20 week cycle.
Here is top-to-top analysis. If it is right this should be 18 month cycle high.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Another sell setup finished on the daily chart and we have now 9-13-9 from the August low.
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