Short term - wave 3 with 1,618 extension and two legs higher with the same size(zig-zag) hitting 2520... just a coincidence my target:) There was a question if TA still works - after this week we have a clear answer. What if the price continue higher? No clue it does not fit much in the big picture... maybe wave b of a triangle.
Intermediate term - one more lower low will look much better for a complete pattern with divergences.
Long term - for me corrective move A-B-C is running and the only question is when it has begun in January or September. If the alternate scenario(green labels) is running we should see impulse for C, so instead of the current a-b-c we have 1-2-3.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pushed to extreme levels usually seen at important lows.
McClellan Oscillator - extreme oversold and resetting.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, extreme oversold.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, reached oversold territory.
Bullish Percentage - extreme oversold.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - extreme oversold and turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - exploded to 36 on Monday.
Advance-Decline Issues - oversold and turned up.
HURST CYCLES
Day 23 for the daily cycle.
Week 9 for the 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Here we go again the next setup interrupted at 8. The bears just can not push lower long enough to finish a setup despite all the selling. Trend means trending moving steadily in one direction. Not a single setup in the last three months. Again no confirmation for trending market.
Hello Krasi! Thx a lot for the update! Ta has its winter under the sun :)
ReplyDeleteOne million dollar question... provided we hit an intermediary low in the next two weeks, you haven’t overlooked the upward move that would follow, except on the long term chart, which says that we take another 2 months to bottom.... would you care to expand on the way the market would attempt a recovery, is to going to take 3 month to reach daily ma200 for example? What are your thoughts on this? Thx a lot!
This is too far ahead. I see at least 2800 and from there it could be anything from testing the January high, testing the September high and even new ATH.
DeleteYou should let corrective waves play out and not try to predict the exact path months ahead before they even started. Probably 90% of the time you will be wrong if you try it.
Possible vacuum rally dow 24200 to 25000
ReplyDeleteJust my opinion make your own decision
Only if the correction is over.
DeleteHi Krasi... i wonder what you think about the following: this correction is very similar to the one that ranged from July 07/ 2011- October/27 2011. Are you able to review that chart? One exception is that the final C wave was shallower than now. The important follow up was the rally of 76.4% Fibo from the previous top before the index retraced somewhat.. is it reasonable to assume that we may see something similar now?
ReplyDeleteMy second observation is that 2011 correction was part of a bigger one that started in 2010. The whole structure was also a flat one although today’s correction that started in January looks like more of a expanded flat. The similarity of the two corrections provide some temptation to suggest that we might see a significant rally to at least 2800 which is 76.4 Fibo from the ATH before the market retraces. I wonder what you think of it Krasi. Thank you
If you count 2010-2011 as a flat than 2018 is major top from 2009 and no need to compare with now.
DeleteCan you explain why? Not sure i understand.. Thanks Krasi
DeleteIn this case you have five waves and finished impulse from 2009.
DeleteKrasi, if large expanded flat ABC since Jan 2018, and now in the ending phase of C, then it would be loosely analogous with 1989-90. 1989-90 is the historical analog pattern I've been watching most closely since the drop in Feb/March of 2018. So far so good. However, my next best loose analog is the 2007-08 top and initial 20% drop. So, prepared for either outcome and taking things a step at a time.
ReplyDeleteOne step at a time is the right approach. In both cases something higher is coming. If it is corrective and weak more to the downside - simple.
DeleteI have one more question regarding the form of this correction. I understand it’s double three, is this correct? Thanks
ReplyDeleteNo, that was before the extension lower.
DeleteIf it begun in January I want to see impulse so currently in iv/3/C.
If it begun in September it is only one zig-zag for A.
objective for C and for zig-zag A about 2140 ???
DeleteFor A 2240-2290 for C around 2100.
DeleteHi, Krasi, I think an unfinished Tom Demark sell signal is usually bearish. Check 10/16/18, 12/13/18, both sell setups failed, which means selling will continue. But in 02/09/18, the sell setup finished, which bounced after that. I am very bearish on the Fridays close. I think new lower low will come
ReplyDeleteI do not mean that there is no more selling. I prefer to see one more lower low too.
DeleteThe difference between reversal and correction in a bull market is time and not this stupid 20% definition for a bear market(both have the same size 15%-25%). The first move lower after reversal takes longer and moves steadily lower. The current one - huge volatility and could not produce finished setup not to mention countdown. This means for me the market is NOT trending lower. It behaves like scary correction in a bull market which purges greed and not like reversal.
No trending, fast, producing a lot of fear - this is not how reversal behaves.
bit bothered that most of the blogs are short term bearish and looking for one more lower low in the next few weeks....maybe everyone is right or maybe the market will clear them all out first!
ReplyDeleteWe will see in the next days, but I can not see finished pattern...
Deletedo you think this is the short term bottom or we may have another wave higher before the potential wave 5 down? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNo change - it should not move much higher if it w4 and another wave lower will look better for finished pattern.
DeleteThanks for your long term update too. The question is that the current hanging up is so long to be wave 4? Usually it should be some quick short term top and then reversal to go down immediately. Not this way like about 4 days...
DeleteYes, it is taking too long. I wrote it is suspicious when we saw a jump 5% in one day.
DeleteTwo options:
The decline is over - one more high around 2550 for diagonal lower to 2400 and higher again.
Alternate this is much bigger wave 4/C for A-B-C from the January.2018 high.
About "this is much bigger wave 4/C for A-B-C from the January.2018 high.", What does it mean? Can you help show some charts? In that sense, we are January 2018 decline is big A, and move up until October is wave B and the full decline is still wave C, What's the difference? Thanks.
DeleteSee the weekly chart above.
Deletelooking like the dip from 2520 was a b wave and we will rally for a few days now . Break above 2520 would turn the short term trend up , so may have legs for a week or so , if so...
ReplyDeleteYes, I have commented above two days ago that it takes too long. This wave is of higher degree, it is not w4 from the December high.
DeleteMay be a triangule?. Now wave B
ReplyDeleteLooking at the futures I doubt it is b of a triangle.
DeleteWhen you say See the weekly chart above, does this mean you think this could retrace to about 2750-2800?
ReplyDeleteYes, I think it will retrace to 2800.
Deletec=a at 2620ish , which would seem a decent target if 2520 goes....
ReplyDeleteI think it will be a weaker wave to test the Jan-April.2018 lows.
Deletekrasi so you still think one more low correct
DeleteYes, one more lower low will look much better for a completed pattern.
Delete2520 by 4pm at this rate , so we'll see , but could all be over by the close!
ReplyDeleteThe level was important for w4 from the December high. A few days ago was obvious that something else is going on. At the moment I think it is w4 of higher degree and the important level is 2550.
DeleteWhy 2550? I get 2575 and 2620ish similar to the yellow lines on your short term charts.
DeleteThat's easy 2550 come from February 13th and April 3rd low
DeleteAnything's possible 2600 could be hit with no problem on this irregular patterns
Zig-zag higher with c wave 0,618 extension from a and resistance the April low.
DeleteIt could extend to 1575 which is 50% retracement from the sell off in December, this will not change the pattern. 2620 is too much for me this will mean the bottom is in.
Thanks Krasi... I still can't figure out what a zig zag is :) You may be right, but food for thought, I want to share the congestion of resistance I see in the 2620-2645 range with the caveat that I personally ignore 3 waves vs 5 waves impulse vs corrective stuff. And would be grateful to hear why I'm wrong and why you think it would mean the bottom is in? Congestion: 1) 5th wave extension of 1.618 = 2627 if I'm not mistaken, 2) 61.8% retracement from December high = 2629; 3) broken uptrend (flattest) line from October low to closing low Dec10th = 2620ish; 4) 50 day MA = 2645; 5) 50% retracement of the entire move from October = 2645 6) broken uptrend from January low = 2645-2650; 7) the cherry on top :) there is a miniscule little gap that could be filled around 2636ish lol
Deletewould still be well below the downtrend line too...anyways, just trying to understand why the bottom would be in above 2620
Thanks for all the great work!
Because in this case you will have a move of the same degree as the September-December decline or with another words we have a bottom. The bottom I am talking about is for this decline which begun in September.
DeleteP.S. zig-zag is a corrective pattern and there is no reversal with corrective patterns.
Great thank you
Deletecrazy market , that can kill you in a few hrs . Cut this mornings longs at 2520 and will look short if they ramp this towards 2540/50 into the close. Above there 2620 would still be my target , so not risk free in a market full of gaps.
ReplyDeletelook forward to your weekend update!
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ReplyDeleteSPX now and late 2007/Q1 2008:)
DeleteI see this comparison everywhere. They look similar I do not think we will see the same outcome.
NYSE and NDX already overlapping with the supposed wave 1 so forget about impulse.
Did NYSE decline for a year in 2007? Did it overlap? How did NDX look like?
nailed it :)
ReplyDelete