Short term - another corrective move, even if it somehow extends higher I do not think this is an impulse.
Intermediate term - from the low in August the move looks like some kind of corrective b wave. I expect one more sell off to complete the correction which begun late July - most likely 40 week cycle low and at least the lower trend line should be tested.
For something bearish price should break below it.
Long term - at the moment I expect a correction to be finished late October/ early November. Then a rally for 2-3 months followed by final sell off to finish the correction which begun in 2018.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the oscillators are resetting from slightly oversold levels and trend following indicators are in the middle of a decline. We should see at least one more sell off to suggest intermediate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - resetting from slightly oversold leveland now positive.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower, but I expect one more spike.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Day 40 for the daily cycle.
Week 19 for the 20 week cycle.
The move up so far is in 3 waves, but it could be an ED of a c wave forming, so so far we have 1, then next week 2. I don't think we break Oct 3rd lows. I think we will top around 3050 by the end of the month then start the decline.
ReplyDeleteThe problem I see with your projection of another low then rally is that if we head that low (break Oct lows) all the VIX products I follow will break multiyear trendlines I'm tracking and will explode in volatility. That will not happen until we have a significant pullback -20%, and VIX will spike to 50.
I think most likely we are forming a flat, with a wave from Sept to mid-September, then b wave mid-september to August, and now in c wave. I stated that the b wave minimum for a flat is 78.6% so we fit criteria for b wave. It can head lower and form an expanded flat, but is unlikely for reasons I mentioned. Also the last 2 weeks were pretty bullish and pretty much nullified any chance this is part of a bigger corrective structure that heads lower.
In this case I would count B is finished and the decline will be in three waves corrective.
DeleteI have shown charts with ED, but I do not believe we will see it.
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ReplyDeleteAnnie, can you not read??? The graphs clearly show what he is predicting and even has the month on the charts. Geez.
ReplyDeleteI can not give any better forecast because we are dealing with corrective waves.
ReplyDeleteTo summarize it again - corrective waves higher, which means even in the bullish case b/B one more sell off to finish correction. The danger for your short position - if the pattern evolve into triangle, with ED it is not so bad you will just hold longer.
If you are so worried than your position is too big and you do not feel comfortable.... think about that. Do not try to get rich fast:) this is wrong strategy.
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ReplyDeleteI think we test 200 day one more time then bounce and can get to 3100. There are alot of people looking to short, so market will not drop. I think we can top around next year. Everything after July, looks to be making a triangle.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like triangle, but it is not.
Delete"There are a lot of people looking to short, so market will not drop" - is a joke. It is just your personal perception to justify your bullish bias. No one has information how many traders want to short and how many to go long.
What's your perspective about USD long term rate? continue lower to even negative rates like European or Japan? Let's say how about next 5 to 10 years? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIn five years we should see the next important low - cycles are running pretty accurate.
DeleteI think yields will be above zero and there is high probability this low to be major low and the end of the bond bull market. Probably around 2030 the low will be tested, but after 2030 commodities should explode higher - very high inflation and the yields will follow.
30 year yields - https://imgur.com/a/DS8V2Lp - I have not touched the chart and like a clock important high in 2018, next is 9 year cycle low in 2024.
10 year yields - https://imgur.com/a/Iyl1vjX take the worst case huge drop and the trend line in 2024 is around 0,8%-0,9%
agree, we will have hyperinflation soon afterwards
DeleteHi Krasi, would it be possible for you to look at BSE Sensex (India) index? A few months ago, you had mentioned the following - "Similar to the US indexes - looks like finished impulse from 2016... it could squeeze one final high, but now is lower for months".
ReplyDeleteBut about 3 weeks ago, there was a large green candle and wondering how much it changes the long term view.
Thanks for your time!
I think it is a-b-c higher and it will make double top.
DeleteAbout the 10 year yields: it means that the rise from 14 to 23 equals to wave 5 of the indexes to 2022 and then the fall from 23 to 9 a crash in the indexes to the year 2024?
ReplyDeleteThis is just how TNX will look if it plunge all the way to the lower trend line for the next important low - worst case. This is not prediction for the pattern.
DeleteBut yes, cycles for both indexes and yields seem to show similar timing.
What do you think of the crude oil?, 3/c/b/B from September to 48-50 and then c/B to 70-75 for q1 2020?
ReplyDeleteYes, one more leg lower to finish b/B and higher high early 2020.... more likely around 70.
DeleteThis mess from the April high does not look like reversal.
What is your opinión of the ibex35?
ReplyDeleteOverall the same story finished or not wave B and sell off into 2020 for wave C and 4 year cycle low. My opinion is we are still in b/B(the green path) - https://imgur.com/a/eNzwVnb
DeleteMost like the next move lower will show which one it is.
In your cycle count is it possible 3th October was 5 week cycle low and then 3-4 weeks more for 40 week cycle low?
ReplyDeleteYes, the Hurst guys count it as 40 day cycle low.
DeleteCan I ask SPX cycle low will happen on NOV. in this year?
ReplyDeleteNothing changed, still expecting a low first half of November.
DeleteIf it will happen - I can not guarantee it.