Weekly preview

Last week I mentioned the market could decide to pull out from the bag with tricks something really complex and we have it. The short term pattern is diametric or symmetrical with the last wave itself diametric - as complicated as it gets. Holidays the market is searching for a way to extend in time without changing the big picture.... and it has not changed, exactly the same analysis like last week only adjusting the cycle length.
Monday was a warning shot, I will not be surprised to see the last 7 weeks wiped out in just 2-3 days after we see turn lower.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal, which I would not follow. The same story like last week just the cycle length looks much better close to the expected average length. We have daily cycle high and low and with high probability the same setup as in Jan-Feb this year.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern is a huge mess, the only way I can explain it is either symmetrical(yellow) or we have triangle b followed by diametric(red). The final wave i/g itself is probably diametric - we have a few zig-zags already.
Move below MA200/support will confirm that the pattern is completed.

Intermediate term - nothing new, the indicators with long and short term divergences warning for a high. Neowave pattern symmetrical completing at 18m high looks good. Classical EW pattern should be W-X-Y with the catch that there is no impulses.
Alternate this is THE top. I do not believe it much, but if we see the last move retraced in less time like 3-4-5 weeks we have reversal.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trend following indicators are joining to the oscillators and turning lower.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving sideways making lower highs, but still above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - short term divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak around zero.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - most likely we saw spike lower into 10w low and now heading into 20d high. Nothing changed the same setup just shifted one week and the cycles have better average length. Again expecting the same setup as Jan-Feb this year, but this time the cycles are one degree lower.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle. The indices are at 20w cycle high and next is the down phase for the 20w low-to-low cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Next week is possible 9 of a setup. In the previous two occasions it marked the high - the two 20w highs.

Weekly preview

Get ready for intermediate term top. Finally the move from the October low is close to completion after 6 weeks doing nothing - the indices are at 20w high, the final squiggles completing a-b-c expected next week, indicators and market breadth with divergences.
The final 20d cycle high is running the usual length is 9-12 days currently at day 8 so next week between Monday-Wednesday we should see the high.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal. We have three closes below MA10 and RSI broke below the trend line/the MA. According to my rules this is one daily cycle or 10w cycle. This is another hint why I think this is 10w low not 5w.
Theoretically this price behavior is very bullish after strong right translated cycle another strong one should follow. But I think this is the same setup like Jan-Feb this year - the next cycle should make higher high just to fail and turn lower. At least this is what should happen according to the other tools.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the final subwave for C is near completion. For me this is diametric completing the C wave of a zig-zag.
DJ/SP500 are weaker, but if you look NYSE you will see c=0,618xa and RUT c=a so it is a time for a high and reversal.
NYSE makes low and the cycle low is at the yellow f so watching for zig-zag g yellow. If the market decides to pull something really complex than the white f is the low and g itself is a diametric the white squiggles.
Confirmation that g is completed is move below MA50/support. Confirmation that C is completed is move below MA200/support.

Intermediate term - the indicators with perfect setup long and short term divergences warning for a high.
Neowave pattern symmetrical completing at 18m high looks good. Classical EW pattern should be W-X-Y with the catch that there is no impulses.
Alternate this is the top, I do not believe it much. In this case the last move up should be retraced in less time like 3-4 weeks.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, short term divergences, the indicators no do not follow higher.
McClellan Oscillator - weak around zero not much reaction to this week move up.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, flattening.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, flattening in the overbought area.
Bullish Percentage - short term double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - looks like double top.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - not reacting to the upside and moving lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - my intuition tells me have 10w low not 5w and the cycle setup for the high looks exactly like Jan-Feb this year with the difference that the cycles are one degree lower. Adjusted accordingly the count on the chart.
The current 20d cycle high is 8 days long so next week we should see the top for the move from the October low.

Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Mature 20w cycle high 16 weeks long and time for reversal into 20w low.

Weekly preview

Another week with more zig-zags and mess, but to contrary this brings more clarity. The short term pattern is taking shape - one final high or it is completed. I am expecting rather final high to complete wave c of a zig-zag and 20w high. Very slow moving wave, I am talking about it for a month and now at last it looks like it close to completing.


TRADING
Trading cycle - price and RSI playing around the MAs. Technically it is a sell signal, but again at the moment there is no signs for confirmed reversal. The high-to-high count is in the time window for a top and I wait to see what happens next week.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - with so many zig-zags the best fitting pattern is diametric for wave c(yellow).
If you want to stick to classical EW.... with so many zig-zags you have to count triangle b followed by expanding ED(red). I think this is a wrong count, but who cares when the outcome will be exactly the same:)
Now there is no signs for a reversal, the move lower is so far zig-zag, but if we see bounce higher and break below support than some wave lower is running.

Intermediate term - the indicators with divergences warning for a high. Neowave pattern symmetrical completing at 18m high looks good.
I have changed the alternate scenario, the classical EW pattern. It still breaks the rules, the W wave is a mess of zig-zags and not impulses. The theory aside the following idea - we have one completed pattern at 40w high roughly for 5months labeled W, followed by X and now second pattern is running and completes at 18m high or roughly the same length 5months.
What we are seeing is a zig-zag for the first wave of it. What could follow is bigger zig-zag,flat or a triangle. We have 20w high what should follow is 20w low so according to the cycles we should see one of the sideways patterns - flat or triangle. On the chart is shown flat, maybe at the 10w low there will be more clarity, for sure we will know around the 20w low.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, short term divergences, some turning lower.
McClellan Oscillator - moving lower close to the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - short term divergence and turning lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergence and turning lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - around the previous lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower highs and trying to turn lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw big reaction lower this week. As I wrote it is possible that the 5w low is this week. We have two bigger reactions lower - accordingly the price pierced MA10 and the indicator is showing them as something significant. For now I will trust the indicator and count this week as 5w low and next week we will see if we have confirmation with a move higher.
For that to work I will make some assumptions like the spike means nothing and count extended 20d cycles so that the flow high->low->high works. I do not like this much, but lets see what happen next week.

Week 6 for the 20w cycle. High-to-high count week 15 so this is definitely 20w high from the September top.

Weekly preview

Short term - it is clear the c wave is running already. It is corrective and it is not clear when it has began. Price blow off was the a wave now we have bullish sentiment blow off with the c wave. Long term no change heading into intermediate term high then lower to MA200.

The interesting development this week is the USD - the USD is driving the markets, when it reverses the stocks will puke.
I think we are seeing the completion of wave C of a triangle at 18 month low with MACD/RSI divergence on the weekly charts. There is no impulse the wave is corrective(7 waves) and the "experts" again with their dollar collapse right on time to be wrong again.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal. The price is finding support at MA10 which is typical for 20d/5w lows, but the problem is there is no strength rally up and test of the MA... just crawling along it. I think we saw half cycle low and one more move up to complete daily cycle high roughly 45 days(red count), which is the usual length.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it is not clear where the b wave was completed. Most of the indices like NDX/RUT/DJT/XLF/SOX/EEM(in fact all without DJ and SP500) look like b wave low on 12th of November(the first b) and c already reached the expected 0,618 extension or more. SP500 looks probably better with triangle(the second b), but why should it have different pattern?. Just waiting to see completed pattern, short term cycless pointing to at least another week anyway.

Intermediate term - nothing new. The indicators with divergences warning for a high. The pattern which fits best is symmetrical completing at 18m high.
Alternate the pattern completes at the current high g/Z. The difference will be the speed of the decline, which will follow.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle. The indices are close to price high and turn lower. The indicators are pointing to topping not continuation.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week just the short term divergences are better visible after this week.
McClellan Oscillator - short term divergence after slightly overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - short term divergence after overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - short term divergence after overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - closed half of the gap and testing the low.
Advance-Decline Issues - short term divergence after overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the more likely scenario is that we saw 5w low on Monday as expected and now heading higher into 5w/10w high. The alternate scenario still have not seen the 5w low will mean a few very long 20d cycles in both directions not impossible, but I want to see confirmation first like 3-4 days lower.
If you dig deeper probably Friday was 10d high and next week Monday-Tuesday lower for 10d low and a few days higher for the final high.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle. High-to-high count week 14 so nearing 20w high.