Jan 1, 2021

Long term - update

Happy New Year!!!!

I wish you successful year and good luck trading in 2021.

Really crazy year... the lost decade I was talking about, it is playing out in the real life and the assets are just mirroring this craziness. The current system(social order, financial system, the life as we know it etc.) started to fall apart in 2000 and since 2018 we are watching the begging of the end. The normal has died, stupidity and dictatorship is on the rise. We are in transition phase and this is the new normal. It will get worse before it gets better - this is how usually it plays out.
This is exactly what my pattern and cycle analysis is showing - mirroring the emotions from the real life. I do not see how it is possible, in the beginning of the biggest mess in real life, to see some third wave or what ever fantasy most have...

George Carlin 10 years ago real prophet:) The first 30 seconds is all you need to know about this "scary virus".

The current view for the next 6 months, all assets should continue to move in sync:
- Stocks - the next six months should be very volatile - low in February -> important high late March/April -> important low in the summer.
- Bonds - should make a high in the next months and decline into 18m cycle low.
- USD - higher in the next 6 months.
- Precious metals/miners - probably hit already 9y cycle high, even so I expect test of the high and then bigger decline in sync with the indices.
- Crude Oil - the same like the indices 18m high expected in a few months followed by decline into 18m low.

Another corrective wave from the low in March 2020 is running. The pattern should be completed at the 18m cycle high in April. After that we should see decline into 18m low. There is an option that this is the price high, but I still think the pattern high should be in April.
For now expectibg lower low c wave of expanding triangle, alternate pattern, which makes some sense and works with cycles, is mega expanded flat

Long term I expect 4y cycle high in 2022 so the bigger decline is expected in 2023 and later. Neely`s triangle is the best looking pattern so far.

Decline into 40w cycle in November was expected - we saw it. Now we should move up into 18m high followed by a decline for 18m cycle low.

I was not sure what exactly is going on in the FOREX world, I think some big sideways pattern is running probably triangle, which will take a few more years and complete with 18y cycle low in 2023 for the USD .

Below how I see the big picture - 18y cycle highs and lows, which are running roughly 16 years long. USD hit 18y cycle high in Dec.2016 and now it is heading into 18y cycle low sometimes in 2023. The pattern is clear corrective sideways move, there is no reversal.

For the next 6 months the USD should move higher probably d-wave of a triangle.

USD/JPY really ugly pattern... I would say 4y cycle low and the pattern best guess triangle in a triangle.

The precious metals sector is heading into important 9y cycle high. The question is do we saw the high or it will occur in a few months in sync with the indices. The second option looks better, but this down phase is lasting very long.... maybe double top.

Gold - either hit 9y cycle high, alternate we will see the high in a few months. Anyway I expect test of the high or marginal higher high in a few months followed by turn lower into 9y cycle low.

Silver - the same but showing the lows, 4y low in March and now heading or hit 9y cycle high. Intermediate term we have 40w low early December and after a high in a few months decline into 18m low should begin.

Miners - the same like precious metals 4y low and now hit or heading into 4y/9y high. Intermediate term - 40w low, in the next months we should see test of the high and decline into 18m low.

Nothing much to say - I see the same pattern and cycles like the indices. In a few months we should see 18m high followed by decline into 18m cycle low. The pattern is corrective zig-zag.


  1. Happy new year Krasi! I believe dxy is about to turn as well as the vast majority are short on the dollar but we have weekly bull divergence and monthly hidden bull divergence as well. Anyway my bet is contrary to most but I'm glad to see the triangle D wave as a possibility here. Thank you for your update 😊

  2. I don't see this long protracted drop for half the year. I think we will have something similar to Jan Feb 2020. We will have a sharp drop until end of February and the correction will be over. It makes sense, whenever you have a long corrective action the drop should be quick or similar to the first wave down in time.

    1. The corrective waves do not repeat they alternate.
      I do not know how the wave lower will look like.
      I know it will b e different compared to the March decline.

  3. Please could you do a forecast on Natural gas in the coming six months. Thanks

    1. I do not analyze NG anymore....
      I would say a-b-c higher now in a-b-c lower. Too early to say part of what this two zig-zags are.
      In the next 6 month - lower for 2 months to complete the second zig-zag then higher.

  4. Krasi, in the eur-usd chart, the labels 18 months are wrong, March 2020 was 18m low and December 40w low

    1. Just my notes are different - this 18 months are the whole time frame one 18m cycle between the light gray vertical lines. The dark grey vertical line is 40w low this 32 weeks.