Weekly preview

Down week for 5w low as expected. Of course the b-waves are the most notorious and mid-week it looked like reversal just to see bigger zig-zag.
I will stick to my analysis until proven wrong, which means one more push higher. I do not see this as a reversal because it is taking too long to retrace the previouss move up. More likely zig-zag b/f-wave testing MA50 and 62% retracement.

Notice the monthly pattern - the same like January starting strong up and ends with a lot of selling the last week. The rips are getting sold.... I expect the same in March - final up and reversal.


TRADING
Trading cycle - sell signal. It looks bad, but the analysis is not confirming it so I am just watching.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like big zig-zag to me for the expected b/f-wave. It could start lower next week, but then it should reverse higher.

Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric.
The indicators with multiple divergences, waiting to see if MA50 will hold and confirm b/f-wave for one more push up.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, which is not a surprise for a red week... so far there is no technical damages.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher ... one more test of the low?
Advance-Decline Issues - still holding the trend line, no serious damages.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this week should be 5w low next is up for 5w high and we need one more 20d cycle higher to complete it.

Week 4 for the 20 week cycle. You can argue for the NDX... maybe SP500 that this is the 20 week low, but DJ and NYSE does not look like a low at all so I will stick to the count that we saw the 20 week low.
Again the highs - if we see two weeks up for 4x7weeks than time and final pattern for the second legs in 2019 and now will look the same:)

Weekly preview

Nothing much happened as it should be. Pullback is running and ideally we should see several days lower next week for 5w low then up again.
Alternate we saw the b-wave this week with 20d cycle low and next week is higher for THE top followed by sharp turn lower.


TRADING
Trading cycle - neutral signal. Price and RSI playing with the MAs, but expect at least one more high before thinking about sell signal.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have the minimum for corrective b-wave(red the alternate scenario), but for now I will stick to the plan a few more days probably triangle before the next move up.

Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric.
Pullback b-wave running, the final zig-zag should begin soon.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing weakness and lower highs so far.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - around overbought level 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - around the lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - around the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - ideally a few more days lower for 5w low then higher.
If next week is up than I would say 20d low with length 13/14 days. We have a new 20w cycle which could have different rhythm... too early to say. This will not be a surprise - the previous one was very short only 13 weeks so the current one should be longer like 18-20 weeks. See the previous 40w cycle - 14+18 weeks and the 20d cycles 15-14-12 days length.

Week 3 for the 20 week cycle. Again looking at the high-to-high count - several weeks ago I wrote that I see three 10w cycles with length 7 weeks and promptly three and a half weeks later we have 5w high... so another three weeks, the alternate scenario one week.

Weekly preview

Nothing much happened this week, I see completed zig-zag and sideways reaction. I think we saw 20d low this week as expected and the indices are close to 5w high or we saw it on Friday. Next week I expect to see turn lower into 5w cycle low.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal after 20w low... nothing much to say.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see a zig-zag up as expected and now most likely this b-wave running.

Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. More likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow) with the C-wave as a diametric. Now this b/f-wave should follow.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing up, with divergences so far.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing up, divergence so far.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing up, divergence so far.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
Advance-Decline Issues - testing the highs again.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - NDX shows more clear the cycle count I am watching, it is the same for the SP500. 20d low this week, close to 5w high and soon it should turn lower into 5w low.

Week 2 for the 20w cycle.

Two interesting charts, which are important as a clue for the direction of the market... just drawn quickly a few vertical lines:)

SVXY 20w and 40w highs one more time down and up to complete a zig-zag and 18m cycle high.

TSLA not very long history, but it seems the 4 year cycle lows and highs are working very good. I see huge a-b-c from the beginning and one smaller from 2019 at 4y high with double RSI divergence on the weekly chart.... difficult to be bullish.

Weekly preview

Higher as expected, but this is something different... too strong for too long, which means with high probability we have
20w cycle low one week earlier.
The other options to extend the 20w cycle are triangles... low probability for me.
Until I see more than 50% retracement the pullback is completed, we have 20w low and the final zig-zag up is running.


TRADING
Trading cycle - buy signal. Price and RSI are above the MAs. Very short cycle... it could be a fake signal, the weak spot of this trigger is sideways corrections, but again until we see more than 50% retracement it is up.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I would say b/f wave completed and zig-zag higher is running.
It seem like we have one zig-zag up for a next week we should see a decline for b or what ever it is.

Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up. You can count it as W-X-Y(white) classic EW, but we do not have impulses. We have series of seven zig-zags so A-B-C(yellow) the C-wave is a diametric.
We saw the bottom of B/d-wave and the final zig-zag is running. According to the cycle analyses it should take 4-5 weeks and I have adjusted the wave degrees accordingly.

Long term - the bull market completed in 2018. Since then a bunch of corrective waves. Currently I think this rally should be a corrective wave of a bigger pattern most likely triangle. Look at NDX we have corrective wave which is 1,618 bigger than the previous one which could be only b of a triangle. I think the best looking pattern is Neely's triangle.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned up, most likely we saw the low.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - tuned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, nearing 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows again.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - short 20w cycle with one missing 20d cycle. It is not the first time I see such thing. There is no perfect tool.
At least 20d high it could be 5w too, next should be a decline into 20d low.

Week 1 for the 20 week cycle. Most likely we have completed 20w cycle with length 13 weeks. Despite the very short length I think this is the more likely outcome. In fact if you look at the previous two 20w lows you will see the same - the second 10w cycle was very short only 5-6 weeks long. So it is not an exception, the same is repeating for the third time.