Trading trigger - playing with MA10.... I think the cross confirms 10w low, but expect lower low for the 10w high. Sell if we see cross lower next week.
Analysis - sell signal, we have transition from 18 month high into 18 month low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like sideways b-wave... a flat less likely triangle.
Intermediate term - I see one big zig-zag up consisting of two zig-zags. You can count it as W-X-Y(red) classic EW, but there is no impulses, more likely series of zig-zags A-B-C(yellow). Lower to MA50 and bounce again, still caught between MAs and the trend lines. All part of topping process the direction is lower.
Long term - the move from March 2020 is completed and we are seeing transition from up to down. Expect 5-7 weeks lower and we will watch how big the decline will be.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are in sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero retracing the decline.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - trending lower, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trending lower below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing and making higher lows so far.
Advance-Decline Issues - weak, but has not broken convincingly lower, at the moment in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think the indices should turn lower into 5w low.
Week 29 for the 40w cycle.
thank you. wish you luck. i think 3950 is done and up.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Krasi. 1) Looking at bollinger bands on the indexes, they have been coiling in the daily and they will start coiling on the weekly. This is breadth algorithm showing how ready is an asset technically for a pronounced move. More often then not pronounced move of intermediate term happens after weekly BB are more coiled. This is one of the indicators making me think we still have a bit of time of choppy sideways-lower pattern before the final wave to complete this intermediate correction.
ReplyDelete2) Have a look at Utilities $UTIL chart: https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24UTIL&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t5505091531c&r=1621694645685. It is one of the leading indicators/segments. Overlay it to the DOW chart. Possibly smth. similar in the near term.
Good luck to everyone and thanks for sharing food for thoughts/analysis.
Maybe another 3-5 days for a triangle before continuation lower.
DeleteProbably move down shall continue tmrw. Nothing very big yet as we discussed beforehand (lower low possible in some indexes, then again sideways).
DeleteProbably c=a
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rdrOLzR8/
It looks like five waves completing the flat - https://invst.ly/ux65x
Deleteso far so good...we are forming this interim top. May put final local top tmrw if not today and tomorrow the correction lower shall resume. 26th is next CIT date, expect acceleration.
DeleteI think Krasi has given up. Replying less to comments and his weekly analysis lacks conviction. Maybe now he finally admits that his fantasy 2200 forecast is just that. Fantasy.
ReplyDeleteNext station - 4500-4600.
ReplyDeleteI don't Know the timing of down move, but it will eventually have to re-test 2200. There are 5 large unfilled gaps that need to be filled.
ReplyDelete2200 or more.
ReplyDeleteKrasi, are we going to ATH?
ReplyDeleteNo, he already said it doesn't fit his analysis. Have faith it's about to crash.
Deletewaiting for a stochastic top on daily. the crash is now .7 % hiccup. pre holiday week, light volume, complacent market. dont really see anything to fear here yet.
ReplyDeleteKrasi you are a little bit under on your puts but you will be right, it is a very long topping process and we are at a full moon on MAy 26 with an eclipse of the moon on that day and there is an eclipse of the Sun on June 10 so i believe after having studied every moon cycle since 1900 that the best chance for a the beginning of a significant decline is between the full moon and 2to 3 days before the new moon which is also the eclipse of the Sun so betwwen MAy 26 and June 7 we will have the top around probably 4250 SPX
ReplyDeleteAy caramba!!!
DeleteThank you for your work, I appreciate even if it was an absolutely insane long topping
ReplyDeletebut we ARE THERE i think also , IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteGlad to see that your blog is active.
I have been trading this market daily and have a couple of critiques.
I think your blog attracts many traders who are not aware of their own time horizon and their target gains. What I mean is that there are traders who trade hourly and minutes scalping few points, then there are traders like yourself who trade for big moves. I am a scalper and cannot withstand big losses that come with big move trading like the one you propose.
I do not know how to trade such analysis so I follow with interest rather than for practical interest. I wish you the best.
- Kali
krasi crash now -0.50%
ReplyDeletethis close, the market wont walk away without a new ath
ReplyDeleteAnother b wave high in the Dax . Suggesting the ultimate high might be a couple of weeks away still .
ReplyDeleteIt would make most sense to see a shallow retrace over the next week of 3-4% before that new high into early June , but who knows how many curve balls will be added before then.
ded
ReplyDeleteThe only way we get Krasi prediction/plan to happen is if we get a 1987 crash like scenario. Not saying it's impossible but the key is if the 200 MA holds
ReplyDeleteI say this could be a possibility, the amount of leverage, no shorts, rubber band stretched to the limit, when it snaps it will be epic
Deleteno volume imagine every one are in ,waiting to be slaughtered
ReplyDeletenot without a little hiccup hier to fool all the fools
ReplyDeleteKrasi has been hammered like an idiot, but like he says the more he get insults , the more he will be proven right
ReplyDeleteOf course he will be right one day. Jesus Christ. Unless your 18 and just started trading we all now it goes up and down. This goes for all gurus. 2200 could be years away. I have a feeling in a month the 2200 will be dropped off Krasi's long term chart and the sheep will still follow. Technically the analysis is dead with a new ATH as it doesn't fit. No one knows. Some just think they know.
DeleteOnce the ball is rolling to the downside, it's going to get ugly. There are so many gaps that need to be filled all the way down to 2200. I would think on the first big move we will fill the gap at 3315. Then on the next leg down we fill the gap down at 2300. The first leg will likely happen very soon.
Deleteyes it will happen
Deletecentral banks are in to manage everything, like the monster they have created, to spare the big banks from going under, the tab is taken up by governments, so print, print, print money because everything will blow out, and they are really scared. Did you notice that the more news were bad, the more the stock market was going higher, now they have to face reality. Big chain supplies disrupted, everyone living on borrowed money not wishing to work, sky high inflation, that is supposed to be transitory, house and rent pricing beyond reality. Disproportionate inequalities. Violence beyond common sense everywhere because people are fed up. Now that the pandemic is under control, the good news will become bad news, because those in the know of things will have bailed out surreptitiously, without the sheep's knowing what will happen to them. A horror movie.
ReplyDeleteKrasi is a decent man from Bulgaria I think, I am from Canada. Everything he publish is backed up, so you can consult the history, why this relentlessness to pin him down. You Americans have lived beyond your means because you have the reserve currency, but it might turn on you, one day, so beware. Because China is now your nemesis and I do not know which one will prevail, though I prefer America.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way China can prevail. They have an economy built on stilts with no foundation. The government fears its own people more than they fear US. Like all other Communist countries before them, they will fall or wallow in misery for years like Cuba. No matter what happens to the Central Banks, the US dollar will be king because who else is there? The US will likely go back to the gold standard once the CB's fail which again puts the US in a great position.
DeleteI do not love China, Evil country but from The America I have known from the 1960-1970 , I have to vomit to let it pass
DeleteAll you must know is when the market will go down, and it is not far from here, though I have not the exact date it will go down for good. I could not imagine when all the stops will be taken out that it will end without a crash. I would say it for sure if it were not from massive Central Banks interventions.
ReplyDeleteIt is history, no one knows but,
ReplyDelete“Krasi has been hammered like an idiot, but like he says the more he get insults , the more he will be proven right”
ReplyDeleteWell said my friend!
BTW.... A Saturday with a Krasi commentary is the best day of the week!
are you an American or not?
DeleteInstead of appreciating Krasi's discipline of consistently posting every week and the study he has done about the cycles, here you are making fun of the blog hiding behind an anonymous identify. It's very fascinating they people who make fun of the blog keep coming back to check the latest chart.
DeleteVB...the problem with Krasi is his arrogance...he has been so wrong for so long...but he will not say it...for sure I appreciate his dedication and all that...BUT!!!
Deletesure an American why not coconut!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WBc8HaxI/ a tag of 13850-13900 would be ideal with a stochastic top and daily divergence for nq
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TwRiNehz/ almost all of these sideways consolidation periods have resulted in a move up. nyse here. pre holiday lite, friday float coming, no real conviction of sellers.
ReplyDeleteCreo que falta una onda al alza, no Krasi?
ReplyDeletethe krasi crash reduced to 23 points now, which should vanish on friday in holiday lite
ReplyDeleteUntil the SPX makes a new high, lower prices are very viable over the next 1-2 weeks. Complacency certainly is going to be high entering a holiday weekend, so anything is possible. I certainly wouldn't want to be long right now. 1-2% of gains isn't worth it.
DeleteThe charts with crash scenarios are so intriguing, but rarely occur. I actually think that seeing these kinds of charts messes up my trading mind. So Krasi's charts are fun to look at and are food for thought, but it may not be very helpful. IMO
Delete4300+ next week everyone. Join the party ��
ReplyDeletestochastic should start to top with one or two more daily candles
ReplyDeleteHey, looks like snp also needs to be in a mental home with nurse feeding him the meds as snp also thinks high is close.
Deletewell i guess you have revealed your mental age as well
Delete