Weekly preview

The "up" move is just sideways mess. It is interesting what happens short term(second chart)... instead of a-b-c it could be an impulse - now wave 4, then lower low and retracement 10w high.
Intermediate term - so far the speed of the move lower is too slow for reversal which confirms the patterns I follow or to expect one more move up before the trend lower from 2022 to resume. In several weeks we will know for sure.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some sideways mess for x-wave before continuation lower(white) or surprise this is impulse(red) with one more wave lower.
It will be a "surprise" because I have not seen clean impulse for a long time.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The last leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat, so far the current leg lower is too slow and choppy for reversal so d/B or b/B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are declining... in the middle of a move lower.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero, it looks like short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... does not really move higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - hovering around the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it is a sideways mess and somewhere in this mess we have 5w low and probably next week 5w high.
I am thinking maybe we can count one 10w cycle in the middle and 2x5w cycles left and right of it. The same pattern played out with the previous 20w cycle... in this case the arrows show where we are in this time not price pattern.

Week 11 for the 20w cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.

Weekly preview

The market follows the forecasted path so not much new to add. Next week should be higher and January lower.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the market followed the projection and now watching for a retracement and one more leg lower.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. The leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are declining... in the middle of a move lower.
McClellan Oscillator - short term divergence pointing higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - there is no much fear... does not really move higher
Advance-Decline Issues - hovering around the oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this week should have been 20d cycle low. Next week we should see a high for 20d/5w cycle high... no surprises so far.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle.
The most obvious 18m low is in October - this will fit with flat B-wave. I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this will fit with triangle B-wave.

Weekly preview

Nice rounding top, next week we should see short term low then higher for the holidays. The 20w cycle is turning lower and in January after the holidays should be the acceleration phase - the biggest decline. I am watching the last week of January +-1 week for potential intermediate term low. This is my plan for the moment and when we see the decline we will know more about the pattern - if the B-wave is completed or not.




TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - lower until late January/early February.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like impulse lower which should be completed in the next few days then a retracement higher for the holidays.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. This leg up is choppy it fits as c/B of a triangle or a/B of a flat.
The alternate option B is completed as a flat - not impossible it works for DJ, but SPX/NDX look very weak.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - all turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - declining below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - declining below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - declining below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up, not much fear and volatility for the moment.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d high, now declining and we should see 20d low next week then higher for the holidays.

Week 9 for the 20w cycle low. Two red weeks in a row and RSI crossed the MA - it looks like the 20w cycle turned lower.
Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this is the low which fits with the pattern I follow.

Weekly preview

Currently I think we saw the high 20w high and we should see two months lower for the next intermediate term low 20w low.
Short term my guess was lower into FOMC probably 10w low and higher into the holidays for 5w high - so far this is what we are seeing, lets see if it will continue to work next week.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high and now lower for two months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely we saw the top, leg lower which looks like impulse - if we see a lower low next week it will be confirmed.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. Removed the most bullish option it will not fit if you want to find common pattern with the other indices. The common pattern is something like flat and the B-wave is completed.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, we have possible intermediate term high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - declining, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - possible 20d high or "surprise" the high is in a few days around FOMC. It is bearish high so we should see lower low then the Christmas rally for 5w high.
The highs count good, but as I wrote a few times it will be difficult to pinpoint the 10w low.... the current low is the best candidate.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle low. Most likely we saw the 20w high waiting for confirmation next week.
Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - this is the low which fits with the pattern I follow.

Weekly preview

Now we have something which looks like close to completed pattern - one more high will complete double zig-zag for the second leg of a bigger zig-zag and week 16 for the 20w high(average 16-18 weeks). The top should be close next week. Could it stretch until Christmas - more likely not... maybe FOMC. I guess lower mid-December FOMC and test of the high the so called Christmas rally.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal... the count is not very clear. The daily cycle corresponds to the 10w cycle and it is a mess at the moment.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - close to the next high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - corrective pattern difficult to count it. The moves are zig-zags so we should see small move down-up to complete the whole pattern. This should be c/B for completed correction or the third leg of a triangle.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. Removed the most bullish option it will not fit if you want to find common pattern with the other indices. The common pattern is something like flat and the B-wave is completing. If you step back and look at the big picture you will see move down for 5.5 months and sideways move for 5.5 months. So there is no reversal just digesting the decline from 2022 and better close for the year... better bonuses for wall street.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some small divergences, still strong levels.
McClellan Oscillator - double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, overbought level reached.
Bullish Percentage - overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency is back, at the trend line connecting the previous 3 lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weakness short term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not very clear... it looks like we have 5w low and strong reaction and this should be 10w low too. The highs 20d cycle high in a few days expected and this should be the 20w high... according to the pattern analysis.

Week 16 for the 20w cycle high very close to the top of this move. Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - where the strong reaction started.

Weekly preview

Holidays and the indices crawling slowly higher. Now they are close to intermediate term high. The pattern is taking shape looking almost completed all this at MA200 and close to the trend line plus week 15 for the 20w high... so waiting for the high I guess next week.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - close to the next high.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern looks like a-b-c which is almost completed at MA200.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options.
If you step back and look at the big picture you will see move down for 5.5 months and sideways move for almost 5.5 months 1-2 weeks missing. That says it all down and a pause one more down is missing. This move up is weak and corrective - it will be nice to see b-c-waves up next year, but the other options B-wave top or e/B-wave are not so nice... careful with longs.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some small divergences, still strong levels.
McClellan Oscillator - double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - at the 70 level short term divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - strong above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency is back, at the trend line connecting the previous 3 lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weakness short term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low and higher into 20d high. Counting the 20d cycles highs gives us 20w high next week.
The lows are not very clear. As I wrote do not expect to see clear 10w low the 20w cycle is dominant like the previous one. It is just a guess where it is... I am not sure where it starts September or October.

Week 15 for the 20w cycle high very close to the top of this move. Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - where the strong reaction started.

Weekly preview

Boring week... nothing new. As expected decline into 20d low and possible 10w low. I think we should see one more high for the 20w cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term higher for a few weeks.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same like last week - zig-zag higher part of a bigger double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - still positive, oscillators turned lower nothing bearish so far.
McClellan Oscillator - close to zero, reseting after overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, around 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower with small push higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - between zero and overbought nothing interesting.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low. Maybe one more 20d cycle for 10w low... it depends on which index you are watching - which low you start counting from.

Week 14 for the 20w cycle high. Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June.

Weekly preview

Nothing new to add - short term not very clear pattern and cycles. The bigger picture looks better - with high probability we have 20w low and now higher into 20w cycle high and corrective pattern running for 18m high. Market breadth was very oversold and now resetting - it was a clear sign to expect relief move higher not a crash. The price action is choppy and corrective so it is just that reliaf rally to reset the indicators nothing more.


TRADING
Trading trigger - another cross and buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term low and higher for a while.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another zig-zag higher. Most likely part of a bigger double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - we have an intermediate tern low, the pattern is not clear at the moment. I am watching this two options.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing strength so we have intermediate term low, but the price action is weak. It feels like indicators reset not a reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - strong, but now with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - strong overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - strong overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - declining.
Advance-Decline Issues - positive, but declining.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high and next week we should see 20d low. The cycle highs look clear the lows not so much. This is the current... guess - most likely we will not see clear 10w low as with the previous 20w cycle.

Week 13 for the 20w cycle high. RSI confirmed 20w low and now moving higher into 20w high. Most likely 18m low in October. Worst case scenario is counting 18m cycle from October.2021 than the 18m low should be in January.

Weekly preview

The double zig-zag higher was completed on schedule and now watching the move lower. I am not sure we will see a lower low, it looks less likely. At the moment waiting to see how this move lower will develop.
Intermediate term I do not expect a crash worst case should be final low for 18m cycle low in January.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - one more move lower or bottoming expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed pattern higher, now watch for another zig-zag lower.

Intermediate term - one final low for wave A, or alternate we saw the low already... maybe we have triangle for wave-B.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but it is not strong sell signal.
McClellan Oscillator - retracing lower after overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower after overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this count looks ligical - 5w high and now decline into 5w low next week.

Week 12 for the 20w cycle high. Week three from the last low it looks like 20w low at week 17(average lenght is 16-18 weeks). It is possible that we have 18m low too. Worst case scenario is counting 18m cycle from October.2021 than the 18m low should be in January.