Weekly preview

Last week I have suggested to watch for double zig-zag from the last low because this is the most common pattern for the last several years. Now the indices are close to the completition of this double zig-zag - maybe another day or two before FOMC.
I think this is at least 10w high and November should be lower for a 10w low. The question is what to expect lower or higher low? Difficult to answer DJ looks very strong, NDX very weak, SPX somewhere in the middle. Market breadth looks strong hinting reversal, but we saw the same in May and August followed by lower low. Maybe mixed picture some indices with higher low other with lower low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, but this is the high of the cycle.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - one more move lower or bottoming expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - almost completed double zig-zag maybe a day or two for topping. The bigger picture is very difficult to guess at the moment.

Intermediate term - nearing the intermediate term low for wave A, currently I expect final low in November. Alternate we saw the low already.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - showing strength all with buy signal now, but another low with divergence can not be excluded.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought level reached.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - strong close to 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - hit overbought level, the previous four occasoíons this was the high.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - probably 5w low this week. Most likely the 10w cycle is dominant and we will not see clear 5w low.
I expect turn lower next week around FOMC into 10w cycle low.

Week 17+2 for the 20w cycle. Waiting to see where the 20w low is and I think this will be 18m low too.

Weekly preview

The preffered scenario was something higher and this is what we saw.... We have double zig-zag higher from the last low and a-b-c from the September low - this means corrective move. It makes most sense if we see one more low with divergence for 18m low. The alternate scenario is very choppy start of something higher... not realy convincing at the moment




TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal again. I do not think it is a good time to buy around 10w high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - one more move lower or bottoming expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - too many options with corrective waves, at the moment I think we should see one more lower low .

Intermediate term - nearing the intermediate term low for wave A, currently I expect final low in November.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week... one more low with divergence will look perfect. If we have important low like 18m low bottoming with divergence will look better.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - pointing higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moved above the 25 level.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range... test of the low will look perfect.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - maybe we have 5w cycle low from the end of September and now higher for 5w high.
The longer cycles are not very clear, the model which makes most sense is shown below - the DAX. I have the suspicion we have 10w high consisting of three cycles.

Week 17+1 for the 20w cycle. Waiting to see where the 20w low is and I think this will be 18m low too.

DAX - this is what makes most sense. Notice how the two 10w highs have the same length and the second one consists of three cycles with the same length and all this at the trend line from the January high... so final push higher to hit the trendline, lower low with divergence and reversal will be a perfection.

Weekly preview

Last week was not clear if we saw 10w high and the 20w low - looking the price action this week I would say neither of them is completed.
What most will do is say five waves lower 20w low case closed.... but something smells a lot. First there is no impulses, second if you check different indices and pay attention to the indicators you will see a-b-c from the end of September.

I will trust my instinct so what we have is flat or triangle for 10w high then final move lower to complete 20w/18m low. Alternate the final wave lower is running and it is something complex.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - correction higher and one more move lower.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag lower now flat(alternate triangle) 0,38 retracement then expect another zig-zag probably 0,62 with target 3400.

Or just lower for double zig-zag - it is the same but it takes less time... fits better with cycles,the 20w cycle low is already mature.

Example of the double zig-zag from the August high completing with complex pattern... notice the Fibo measurements waves of two different degrees converge together.

Intermediate term - nearing the intermediate term low for wave A. Currently b-wave and final low in November.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICA TORS
Market Breadth Indicators - Oscillators turned higher, but there is no real test of the low with divergence. The trend folowing indicators still with sell signal. I guess the bottoming will take longer.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero, higher lows so far.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - double top.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low this week, next week we should see 20d high to complete 10w high.

Week 17 for the 20w cycle. Expecting surprise longer 20w cycle and 18m low in November. This is the case with 18m low July last year - if you remember it was not clear if it is on schedule in July or the first visible low in October.

Weekly preview

Sharp reversal and fading this week... it is very difficult to say if we saw the 10w high and now heading lower into the final low 20w low or it has a few more days to go some sideways pattern. The indices are trying to find a bottom, I still expect intermediate term low in October. At the moment we should just wait and have patience.

If you notice on the daily and weekly charts RSI broke above the trend line and now backtesting it, indicators and market breadth with possible divergence, at support level daily and at MA200 weekly - many signs for potential intermediate term low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, crossing MA10 up and down... patience if you want to trade.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - the indices are close to a bottom after that higher for a few months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - not clear just wait to see how it will play out.

Intermediate term - the indices are nearing intermediate term low... maybe one more push higher and lower low with divergence or just lower.
After the low we will see something higher B or alternate c/B forget about third waves or crashes. Given the market breadth and cycles it should be B-wave.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
The indicators look ready for a divergence, at horizontal support, at the trend line, at MA200 - if we do not see intermediate term low now I do not know when.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher after very oversold levels. In the direction of the trend usually there is another move with divergence before sustainable bottom/top... maybe this is playing out now.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero after very oversold levels and now lower again - ready for divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher and lower again - potential divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - down and up - divergence?
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher close to zero.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - potential 10w high. Did we see it this week? - difficult to say. If not it will be next week.
From weekly perspective it looks complete 2x5w cycles lasting 4 weeks each(see below).

Week 15+1 for the 20w cycle. Either we have the 20w low or one more 5w cycle the end of October.

Weekly preview

The indices were trying to bottom this week as expected... trying to count the short term cycles shows this week or early next week we should see 5w low. This could be 20w low but I think something bigger is in play - maybe one more 5w cycle and 18m low.

Pattern - I expect wave higher, but what degree c/B or B or b? Cycles say 2-3 months higher for 20w high this excludes b-wave. Market breadth extremely oversold b-wave does not fit again. This move lower does not feel like b/B it is the opposite of choppy taking time - faster than the supposed wave a/B and straight lower. Using the method of exclusion we should see B-wave into 18m high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - the indices are close to a bottom after that higher for a few months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - close to or completed zig-zag, waves 4/5 still could not be ruled out but impulse will be a real surprise... I have not seen such for a long time.

Intermediate term - the indices are nearing intermediate term low... maybe push higher and lower low with divergence - this is how the previous two lows played out and time is interesting both bottoms took one 5w cycle.
I still think we will see something higher forget about third waves or crashes. Given the market breadth and cycles it should be B-wave.

Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - trying to find bottom after very oversold levels.
McClellan Oscillator - higher low, short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, oversold level reached.
Bullish Percentage - trying to turn higher after very oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to turn higher after very oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - topping after spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - higher low, short term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - lower to complete 20d/5w cycle low, now we should see pop higher 10w high and test of the low.
This could be 20w low or one more 5w cycle.

Week 15 for the 20w cycle. If you put aside price and focus on time - it is time for 18m low - March.2020-July.2021-October.2022 ... maybe this is what market breadth is telling us. DAX how pattern and time could look like in this case.