Trading trigger - sell signal, crossing MA10 up and down... patience if you want to trade.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - the indices are close to a bottom after that higher for a few months.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - not clear just wait to see how it will play out.
Intermediate term - the indices are nearing intermediate term low... maybe one more push higher and lower low with divergence or just lower.After the low we will see something higher B or alternate c/B forget about third waves or crashes. Given the market breadth and cycles it should be B-wave.
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave and now c-wave lower running, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years. The indicators look ready for a divergence, at horizontal support, at the trend line, at MA200 - if we do not see intermediate term low now I do not know when.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher after very oversold levels. In the direction of the trend usually there is another move with divergence before sustainable bottom/top... maybe this is playing out now.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero after very oversold levels and now lower again - ready for divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher and lower again - potential divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - down and up - divergence?
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher close to zero.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - potential 10w high. Did we see it this week? - difficult to say. If not it will be next week.
From weekly perspective it looks complete 2x5w cycles lasting 4 weeks each(see below).
Week 15+1 for the 20w cycle. Either we have the 20w low or one more 5w cycle the end of October.
Thanks Krasi, I notice a lot of traders saying the weekly candle is bearish, but an inverted hammer in a downtrend often signals reversal https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_hammer
ReplyDeleteMaybe the low of last week was not 5w low and it will be this week or the next
ReplyDeleteTwo lows 4 weeks apart the rest is guessing.
DeleteNDX I will not be surprised if we see this - https://invst.ly/z5o14
ReplyDeleteClear double zig-zags on the way up and down fitting perfectly with cycles and 4y cycle completed in 3.5 years which is the usual length.
40 week cycles very shorts
DeleteThey are perfectly fine, the cycles are shorter for the US indices.
DeleteIt is explained above. Study the charts - cycles,market breadth,technical analysis and you will see that this is very unlikely.
ReplyDeleteKrasi, i cannot believe that it will take so much time to get a crash. You have been brain washed by so many magical reversals, propped up by central banks. 2 years ago, you called for it head on . Now we are deep to the neck in an incredible pit of shit so i think it is coming in the next few weeks, not months , impossible. When Credit Suisse has to restructure, it is not going well and it smells apocaleptic abysmal dephts coming in for major banks and economic stucture and I do not talk about a nuclear war which has never been so close since 1962. THAT'S ALL.
ReplyDeleteTelling the market what to do and finding excuses why never works.
DeleteWhat works is studying the charts and let the market tell the story.
I will stick with this and I do not care about Credit Suisse etc.
P.S. crashes occur close to the end not at the beginning - fresh example 2020 4 year cycle burned the fuel quickly. If the indices crash now what will happen for another year?
Thanks Krasi.
ReplyDeleteThank you krasi, nice, so you see 4000 before 3200?
ReplyDeleteNDX below 10900
ReplyDeleteBounced off the 200 weekly sma today. Bulls need to start getting back to the trading desk tomorrow
ReplyDelete20 days low today?
ReplyDeleteIt does not look complete another 1-2 days.
DeleteLook at soxx
ReplyDeleteAmen, brother.
DeleteLook at the ndx, spy, money flew index
ReplyDeleteFor those with the imminent crash - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46122554513
ReplyDeleteGo back to 2008 and check it too. The minimum is bounce higher for two months to complete the 20w high and reset the indicators then it can crash - so no it will not be this year.
For those who are too lazy 2008 - https://ibb.co/42jXWMg
ReplyDeleteFour months 20w low too oversold, 3.5 months for 20w high two of them higher to reset the indicators.
Those with the crash study the charts and stop wasting my time with your emotions.
Krasi, from timing cycles, it seems that the true bottom is in 1Q 2023. pls give me your valuable thoughts.
Deletei totally agree that all must be on board the bus to crash it.
DeleteBelow is your comparison with 2008.
ReplyDeleteYour track record is poor - wrong on every top and bottom.
The same repeats over and over and you are just annoying.
The next time I see "do not you think something else will happen" I will delete your comment - it is a waste of time to explain to you.
For so many years you have learned zero and you will never learn anything - you have herd mentality and the herd controls your thinking and this will never change.
Appreciate your work, I am not professional
ReplyDeleteSo, don't be angry
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi for the running explanations and answering where we are in the 20 wk cycle.
ReplyDeleteI think we will no go up in wave c of B until the beginning of next year then go down in another C wave until June.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the indices are close to 20d low today is day 9. On the other side the next 20d high is with high probability bearish with 5-6 red days and the deep retracement.
ReplyDeleteThe conclusion - most likely it will take one more 20d before we see the bottom.
when was the last one?
DeleteThe usual length is 8-11 days with the strength today most likely longer like 10-11 days
DeleteDoesn't today's price action look like a bottom was formed this morning?
DeleteYes, it looks like reversal.
DeleteKrasi, u mentioned 10-11 days, CD or TD ?
DeleteTD I count only trading days it is easier.
Deletebought the dip, yields may have topped as well.
ReplyDeleteCan today's low be 18 month low?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteThank you
ReplyDeleteWhy nymo has bullish divergence and nysi bearish divergence?
ReplyDeleteI do not see nysi divergence, it is just moving lower.... most likely the move lower is not completed.
Delete5 of c next week? Yesterday seems like end of 4
ReplyDeleteMajor top in Jan of this year, I expect one more fool's rally or B wave then crash into SPX ~2000. A lot of false bounces are happening. We are up against channel trendline from 2009 so I expect a bounce here, but who knows how high it'll be, the market is definetely in a bear market.
ReplyDeleteYes, something like that
Delete