Weekly preview

Sharp moves down and up, the idea from last week looks on track. Just the low this week came at day 31/6 weeks right in the middle between 5w and 10w cycle length so it is a little bit confusing... which one is it? - maybe this was not the 10w low and something like in December happens.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.... short cycleonly 31 days?
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - impotant high expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag higher, sideways correction and now another zig-zag higher.

Intermediate term - the indices are close to the top of the correction. It is a complex pattern there is different possible combinations and I am not sure where the B-wave starts - in June or October. It could be w-x-y or triangle starting in June.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - mixed some pointing higher other pointing lower in the middle of the ranges... only the complacency is high.
McClellan Oscillator - now above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - up another low and more complacency.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d high maybe around FOMC then it will get interesting.
The low this week is it long 5w cycle or short 10w cycle? The previous high is 10w high and the next high should be 20w high to complete the B-wave so in theory judging by the neighbouring highs this should be 10w low.

Week 7 for the 20w cycle. Close to important high and next should be the last 40w cycle of the 4y cycle.

Weekly preview

Five weeks ago I have shown chart suggesting 7 weeks higher and extended 20w high after extended 20w low(last chart). Watching the short term cycles this is the most likely scenario - I think we should see one more 20d high to complete 5w high for extended 10w/20w high.
This is the main scenario which I am following in the last few weeks so no surprise just conformation from cycles.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, extended cycles, overdue for a top.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high - impotant high expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - triple zig-zag or impulse, make your choice - it does not matter, at the end a pattern is close to completition.

Intermediate term - the indices are close to the top of the correction. It is a complex pattern there is different possible combinations and I am not sure where the B-wave starts - in June or October. It could be w-x-y or triangle starting in June.
The last move lower lasted 5 weeks now after 6 weeks still lower high - this means this is a leg from the same bigger pattern. Multiple divergences so close to completition.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new maybe, topping...
McClellan Oscillator - moving lower after oversold level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - at the long term trend line.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 20d high on Tuesday, now close to 20d low. One more 20d high will complete third 5w cycle for extended 10w/20w cycle high - this makes most sense.

The most likely scenario is extended 20w cycle low(in March) lasting 21 weeks and now close to the high of extended 20w cycle high currently at week 20. Both cycles have extended second 10w cycle consisting of three 5w cycles.

Weekly preview

20d low and higher as expected. I would say the indices are close to important high - the end of the sideways correction.
The pattern - it is complex, the indices look different, but it is mature so I would say near completition. Cycles - in the time frame for 18m high. Market breadth - moving higher, do not show signs for a top.
This is the current situation waiting to see what happens in the next few weeks.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, overdue for a top.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high next week and lower for 2-3 months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this wave up looks like impulse which fits with w-x-y zig-zag+flat.

Intermediate term - I think the indices are close to the top of the correction. It is a complex pattern there is different possible combinations and I am not sure where the B-wave starts - in June or October.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same pointing higher.
McClellan Oscillator - lower high after overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - heading lower, another test of the long term trend line.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought levels.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - looks like 5w low this week and continuation higher.... expect M shape top.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle. This is week 19 for the 20w cycle high and week 35 for the 40w cycle high - the average is 16-18/32-36 weeks so the indices are in the time window for a high.
Do not exclude the option for 18m low in June.2022 - in this case final sell off is imminent and 4y cycle low in September/October.

Weekly preview

Correction but weak as expected, nothing new just a pause. I think next week we should see a short term low followed by final move up for intermediate term high.
Overall since December we have 4 weeks lower, 5 weeks up, 5 weeks lower, currently week 4 up - so the indices are close to the next intermediate term high... I would say the third week of April the next 20d high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, mature time for turn lower.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high in the next weeks and lower for 2-3 months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - looks like wave 4-5/c to complete another zig-zag.

Intermediate term - it seems this scenario is playing out. Alternate the indices are still in b/B or it could be very complex w-x-y with y triangle currently c/y of this triangle.

Long term - monthly chart, month 16 from the last high so it is time for 18m high. Look at MA20 - the price is below it and testing it. This is the weakest price action since 2009, until 2022 we had only short living breaks below it.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing higher.
McClellan Oscillator - lower after overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - pause in the move lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - at overbought levels.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I expect 20d low early next and final high for 10w cycle high.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle. This is week 18 for the 20w cycle high and week 34 for the 40w cycle high - the average is 16-18/32-36 weeks so the indices are in the time window for a high.

Weekly preview

Higher for 20d/10w cycle high as expected. Two weeks ago I have shown alternate scenario and it looks activated now. From cycle perspective it looks very good. Pattern - it is very difficult to predict it and if you try to find common one between the indices it is impossible. Some indices are very weak it is difficult to see them making higher high... so maybe this is still some b-wave.
Short said it is a mess and what we know for sure it is corrective pattern and the decline is not over.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal, in the time window for a top.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term high in the next weeks and lower for 2-3 months.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - if there is more to the upside. Alternate it is the b-wave from last week completing zig-zag and reversal lower next week.

Intermediate term - if we see continuation for another week or two the pattern will look like a-b-c with sideways b-way. Cycles have not problem with that - all 10w/20w/40w cycle lows and highs count very well.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, it is more likely this to last for a few weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - close to overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned higher.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - is declining.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high next week and lower for 20d low expected. This 20d cycle looks strong so another high is expected. On the other side the indices are in the time window for 10w high.

Following this pattern and sticking to the theory we should count 20w low 3 weeks ago and now higher into 20w/40w/18m high. This is already week 17 for the 20w cycle high and week 33 for the 40w cycle... the average is 16-18/32-36 weeks so the indices are already in the time window for a high.