Trading trigger - buy signal, very weak cycle higher two many crosses.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - topping for important high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like this to me. The last two months are such a mess....
Intermediate term - double zig-zag from October.2022 in white or double zig-zag from June.2022 in yellow. Alternate triangle for the y-wave in red.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, nothing interesting.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - up and down in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - next week we should see 5w high which should be 20w high too then turn lower into 20w low.
Week 11 for the 20w cycle low, week 16 for the 20w cycle high. The cycles of higher degree are not perfectly clear.
Just saying what I see when I try to synchronize the pattern...
ReplyDeleteDAX - https://invst.ly/107atm
NDX - https://invst.ly/107atu
SPX - https://invst.ly/107av9
Thanks Krasi and thanks for the Dax view too.
ReplyDeleteall we need now is a couple of insulting, arrogant comments from some delusional bull over the next week following today's huge gap up open to seal the deal. let's wait patiently..
ReplyDeleteJP
lmao. maybe lady S would appear soon to fulfil your wish. She is not arrogant though ok
DeleteThanks Krasi, I am a bear as you can see from my name lol, but how probable is that we may have completed the green b wave at october low (in form of abc in june-aug-oct, low-high-low) and now make a higher high from here to complete the multi-year high?
ReplyDeleteProbability 0%
DeleteBut after the 4y cycle low the probability for new ath is very high.
NDX, tow canals, first 14500, second 4650
ReplyDeleteSupport, one 13600, second 13000, you need to break 12900
ReplyDeleteWe've got tow canals now
ReplyDeleteAnd channels too,
ReplyDeleteThe alternate scenario - https://invst.ly/1086tg
ReplyDeletePrice is literally crawling higher, but market breadth is trending lower not far from oversold. In a few weeks we should see 20w low. Parabolic moves(NDX) usually end with second lower peak.... or higher high with divergence.
All this makes me think we will see sell off, but short living and one more peak probably lower high before getting interesting. In this case the pattern shown on the chart is playing out.
Yes, this is what I am thinking and imo will be higher high
DeleteLook at the VIX, it's forming a broad triangle from 2020. Once that's finished, that's when we go down!
ReplyDeleteContinuation of the idea above if you look at NYSE or DJI you will see pretty clear 20w cycles compared to the SPX skewed yet again because of tech stocks.
ReplyDeleteThis is NYSE for example - https://invst.ly/108n-m
The decline into 20w low is already running it is not a reversal because it is slower than the previous move up, but it will create the conditions for bearish 20w high and reversal. Why? - because most of the time will be move lower - 7 weeks plus the current 20w low is not completed only at week 11 so something like 5 weeks lower for 12 weeks lower and only 4-5 weeks up.
And SPX is in a range of 100 points for 9 weeks because NDX went parabolic hiding the weakness.
Short said looking at NYSE/DJI the message is lower into July, higher into August and the sideways move is over.
Then in autumn strong drop?
Deletethe charts are mesmerizing, but so wrong all the time
Deletefull respect to your work, but this doomsday selloff keeps getting postponed it seems. Think you have been trying to call a top from 3800...
ReplyDeleteYou call me stupid
ReplyDeleteYes, bullish at the top as always.
Deletebroken record again
DeleteChicken Little (US) / Henny Penny (EU) is back! The sky is falling ...
ReplyDelete"I will never understand why people fight price action. Everyone and their mom has been waiting for a lower low. Everyone on fintwit calling a bear market rally. Breaking the 2022 trendline, golden cross, above 200 day, etc all say otherwise. I'll turn bearish when all the fintwit tards turn bullish or price action tells me. People complicate stuff."
ReplyDeleteIf you missed this rally you only have yourself to blame. The market was begging you to get in. Just like the market (price action) will be telling you when it's time to finally short. People really are stupid.
JP you are like clairvoyant:) smart guys everywhere you see just I am stupid.
ReplyDeleteIt's debatable.
DeleteJP
"it's debatable" who are you mofo!! you are not JP. i am and don't try to impersonate me you moron!!!
DeleteJP
Maybe move from Anonymous to "O.G. JP", "The Real JP, ", ???
DeleteKrasi,
ReplyDeleteSuper appreciative long-time viewer, very interested to see your thoughts post break up here, how far it runs before larger move lower begins.
Guys I have one request. No making fun of lady S please. If you are bearish, you need to have bulls in the market. Otherwise your bearish thesis doesn't work out.
ReplyDeleteAlso lady S (whoever he/she it is, may be it's Nealy himself lol) has been right into now to be bullish, so why make fun?
Nealy just sent some email that shows SPX to the sky. So there are lots of bulls in the market and the indicator today are all bullish if you ignore cycles, etc. So why make fun of people and call each other stupid? The Internet is full of hatred / abuse everywhere, let's not do the same here.
The un real lady S. The un real JP
ReplyDelete