Weekly preview

After a-b-c lower and 5w low we have zig-zag higher for 5w high as expected... in theory another leg lower into 10w low should start.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a-b-c lower and now higher - in theory another leg lower should follow. Alternate the correction is more complex than simple a-b-c.

Intermediate term - intermediate term top and the first wave lower.... a few months lower should follow.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - a pause on the way lower.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high next is lower into 20d low. This correction higher should be 5w high.

Week 26 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June. Projection if the 10w cycle continue with the same length.

Gold long term - at 4y cycle high. First 16y high and major low should be completed before it goes balistic.
The gold "experts" are everywhere explaining you to buy..... at the top of course.

Weekly preview

It is taking longer to find a bottom - obviously the indices switched to bearish mode. Three weeks lower so it should not last long to see 5w high and another lower low... still not clear if this is a-b-c or 1-2-3, but if we see brief pop higher for 5w high and lower low the decline will look like impulse.
DJ and NDX almost flat for the year, 12 weeks retraced in 3 weeks and SPX holding the line +4%.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, in the middle of the cycle.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag or impulse... we have to wait.

Intermediate term - intermediate term top and the first wave lower.... a few months lower should follow.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in a sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level and turned higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the indices should be at 5w low and I expect something higher next week.

Week 25 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June.
Speculation if the current 18m cycle looks like the previous one with five cycles - at least the first two cycles seem to have the same length.

USD long term 8 year cycle highs and lows. Between the lows(red) and the highs(blue) there is powerful rally. Between the highs and the lows there is long sideways phase consisting of three legs. This should continiue until the next major high 4x8y cycles.
In the middle of the 8y cycle low there is 4y cycle low (the circles) and I think we saw such a low - just on time when the indices should decline and Gold is at 4y cycle high. I think the USD started the move up of the sideways corrective phase.

Weekly preview

A few pops higher - the dip buyers waiting for 10% higher, no 6000 sounds better... all sold of course. Expect 5w low next week then higher for 5w cycle high to trap even more dip buyers.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - this is intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - w-x-y running, should be completed in a few days.

Intermediate term - intermediate term top and a few months lower should follow.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d/5w low... a few more days.

Week 24 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June.

Weekly preview

Just like that slowly and almost invisible the indices are topping.... it looks like rounding top - the price is not much lower, but it is below MA10 for four days already which is a signal for a decline into 10w cycle low.
NDX/DJI weaker made the highest high on 21 of March, SPX/NYSE on 28 of March. We have intermediate term top and a few months lower will follow.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - this is intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like expanding diagonal and subsequent deep retracement... waiting for more price action.

Intermediate term - zig-zag finished for intermediate term top and a few months lower will follow.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower after divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - moving lower.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower below 75.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - most likely 20d low and in a few days 20d high then lower around mid-April for 5w cycle low.

Week 23 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June.
Week 35+1 high-to-high, at the top of at least 40w cycle... most likely 18m cycle high.
Average length for the 40w cycle is 32-36 weeks the last 40w low was 33 weeks long and now the high is 35 weeks long maybe the market is back to normal rhythm. In this case next important low is in June.