Sep 13, 2025
Update and long term view
Time to look at the big picture because the indices reached the end of the road from 2009.
First short term - I see the usual double zig-zag, both Fibo measurement for c and Y point to the same area 6630-6640.
Or you can count impulse if you want. Both corrections are running one - flat and triangle so the sheeple do not see a correction and the stupid comments are getting more as usuall at the top.
Short term cycles - one more 20d cycle for 40w cycle high.
Long term - I have looked at the long term cycle charts and do not think there will be pullback b-wave and another high. Based on pattern and the cycle high below this looks like the high - I do not buy the ED count with another b-c wave... ooo I have forgotten - it did not decline for the last 1/2/3 years so it is all wrong.
The 7y cycle highs - reached 4y cycle high which is roughly 3.5 years long.
The 7y cycle lows - looks like sequence of long-long short-short 3.5 year cycles and we have the bounce from the second short cycle in the sequence.
The 9y cycle lows - the current 9y cycle has no visible candidate for the 4y cycle low(see below) - the best candidate is the sharp decline from this year.
The pattern from 7y cycle perspective starting from 2009 - I see two impulses for a-b-c.
NDX as an example - from 2020 I see impulse which is weaking and taking the shape of a wedge, but I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - I see two 18m cycle lows between the start of the impulse and the low of wave 2 and two more between the lows of wave 2 and 4. I see one 18m cycle high between the highs for wave 3 and 5 and two 18m highs between wave 1 and 3.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale c=2.618xa, in logarithmic scale c=0.618xa
The pattern from 9y cycle perspective starting from 2011 - I see two zig-zags for w-x-y.
DJ as an example - from 2020 I see two impulses for a zig-zag, I do not think this is ED.
Cycles - the first 9y cycle divides perfectly in two, the current one visually looks like sequence of three 18m pairs instead of two 4y cycles.
Fibo just a coincidence I guess - in non-logarithmic scale Y=1.618xW, in logarithmic scale Y=0.618xW
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Can we see 4000-4400 for end year(4y low) and a last high next year ? And after that the big drop ?
ReplyDeleteKrasi states above: "Long term - I have looked at the long term cycle charts and do not think there will be pullback b-wave and another high. Based on pattern and the cycle high below this looks like the high - I do not buy the ED count with another b-c wave... ooo I have forgotten - it did not decline for the last 1/2/3 years so it is all wrong."
DeleteThe 4y cycle from 2020 is behind us, this should be the next one. Another decline and new high does not look likely, we had this already.
DeleteI have been waiting for the big crash since the Covid drop that lasted all of 2 weeks. This wretched market has been kept afloat by the central banks determined to keep the status quo. This is inherently difficult because the artifical intervention by the Fed. Its hard to do a proper analysis when the bankers keep cheating. So called free market isnt free. I long to see a drip to normalize and humble these wretched greedy bankers...
ReplyDeleteThe only people who benefited from this rise was top 1%. Working class got crushed.
ReplyDeleteOf course this is the goal - the middle class should be destroyed.
DeleteDXY has resistance at 101, spy has support at 6150
ReplyDeleteWe have to see spx break the channel, 6400
ReplyDeleteThe dxy close exactly on the long channel, it's a critical point, what if it's break the channel, the market keep the negative correlation or not?
ReplyDeleteThere is no such risk.
DeleteFoundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) US Indices | Market Cycles Report Sept15 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCX2ijqtgqA
ReplyDeleteShort summary - it is time for 40w and 4y cycle high which is the same like the analyses above
If you take a line form point a to Friday top it's ending diagonal, maby a correction then one more high before the collapse
ReplyDeleteIf you see the first chart down up for waves 4-5/c was expected it seems we have the 4 and now 5 running - https://invst.ly/1cdxln
ReplyDelete5th wave completed?
DeleteIt looks so....
DeleteHow is it a correction is running when we are going higher …?!
ReplyDeleteThat is why it is called running corrections it runs with higher lows because of a strong market, but still it is a correction visible from the indicators etc.
DeleteLooking NDX I think 2018 and 2022 4y low, so I expect another one for end year or q1 2026
ReplyDeleteNo this are not 4y cycle lows and accordingly 2026 will be just intermediate low o n the way lower.
DeleteKrasi, I see high, higher low, strong market, buy the dip for 100 years, as banner sign, the next leg down at the 2026 end, the same from gann
ReplyDeleteTime to start paying attention to DXY. We have a potential trend shift establishing on the daily time frame.
ReplyDeleteI am paying attention and repeating 4y cycle low.... converted EUR in USD yesterday.
DeletePerhaps a good timing :)
DeleteNo weakness in equities on todays opex. Lets see what next week does.
DXY have strong resistance
ReplyDeleteI think it will bounce and continue in the channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/lPMYvF7p/
DeleteAlso smart money is net long dollar big time so as usual sheeple will be taken to the cleaners
Deletehttps://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/interactive-charts/DX*0
Current Shiller CAPE ratio for S&P is 38. Only two times since 1928 has it been higher than that - late December 1999 (44.2) and November 2021 (38.6). Since nothing really happened much in the equity markets in early 2000 or 2022, bulls have nothing to fear ...
ReplyDeleteNothing new to add for the past week, it looks like we have waves 4 and now 5 as a diagonal - https://invst.ly/1cfu32
ReplyDeleteIf a new bull market did start after that last big drop earlier this year where would that put us in the cycle? We would still have a few years left moving up.
ReplyDeleteHave you looked at the charts above? - obviously not, it is shown.
DeleteNo, there is no few years left. After 4y cycle low follows 4y cycle high and this is not in a few years it is now.
It is called M pattern and a few years lower follow not higher.
Complicated math task for home work calculate the next 4y cycle high 2021+4=?
This is going to come back to haunt you. There is no 4 year low this year.
DeleteMaybe but there is 4 year high and this is going to come back to haunt you.
DeleteThere are no waves and there is correction just steady march up ….
ReplyDeleteJust a few days later you will look just stupid....
DeleteAs expected typical stupid sheeple confirmed - the waves completed the pattern and the market turned lower.
Deleteup 100 pts just like that, every week. do u have a definitely limit where spx can go?
ReplyDeleteNow would be a good time to dump prices aggressively and end September with a reversal
ReplyDeleteCare to share your view on OMXS30 Index? Thx
ReplyDeleteI see two zig-zags higher and next is decline to support level - https://invst.ly/1ch5z3
DeleteThat would be a big decline of around 50%.
DeleteHow would you trade that on intermediate term if you factor in time?
krasi, can u do a spx płot for the possible path going forward. I hope we dont go any higher anymore. its has be 16 yrs.
ReplyDeleteAlso look at smart money positioning in vix
ReplyDeletehttps://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/interactive-charts/VI*0
It's "weird" that GOLD still reaches new high and never retract?
ReplyDelete