Nov 11, 2013
Correction time???
DJ Transport weekly - I keep a chart of another indexes because sometimes the cycles are more clear.... I am posting it because it is interesting to see the perfect cycle resemblance. Two things:
- first the cycles are more clear and you can see visually why I expect correction at this point. The first 18 month cycles of the two 4 year cycles are exactly the same... now the last part is missing:)
- second in the weekly review I wrote that we should see a top this week... ok last chance is next week. This is not by coincidence or because I am trying to nail tops(which is very stupid). The reason is because SP500 is at week 6 of the last 20 week cycle which is almost the middle of the cycle and if the price will move lower it must be NOW. You can see it on the chart too, it is time:)
We have all pieces of the puzzle in place - indicators, market breadth, cycles, TomDemark weekly 9-13-9 finished, sentiment, historical similarities, the topping pattern which I am posting... but if we do not see the price starting to move lower all this does not matter.
The 18 month cycle will finish just moving sideways with small pullback and the low will be around the end of January when we have the "debt ceiling drama again"
and another strong move will begin. See the low of the 4 year cycle - expect something similar. I can be wrong, I can not see in the feature:) and this is the plan if we do not see a correction.
Nov 9, 2013
Is it different this time?
Is it this time different? Mmmmm I do not think so, the bull market accelerates in its final phase, not when it starts, and excessive greed is punished. Could it move higher another month or two? Of course SP500 can reach 1800 or 1850. Is this makes a difference? - No it will drop from 1%-2% higher levels nothing more.
I do not think, that this time is different, because the humans are the same stupid and greedy beings, only the excuses are different.
We had dot com bubble,housing bubble, another stock mania,Oil mania,Gold mania Apple mania and it always ends the same way. The people never learn - greed,greed,greed
and the same bullshit - this time is different.
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