Weekly preview

Short term view - still waiting for the market to take a decision.
Intermediate term view - believe it or not I do not see bullish signals so the next bigger move is lower.

Quiet week, nothing has changed only the leader, the technology sector plunged on Friday... probably the indexes are waiting for FOMC next week. Currently I see two possible patterns - wave B from expanded flat and and some kind of ED for wave iii or v of 3. The only index which really moved higher since March is NASDAQ. Now it has 5 waves from the bottom in March with multiple RSI divergences.... it will be really very surprising if it continue the rally. Yesterday feels like climax for Nasdaq/SOX and VIX... it is getting more and more difficult to see something bullish - call me broken clock or wrong big time:) but this is what I see.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the two short term patterns - expanded flat and ED.

Intermediate term - the same like last week, now Nasdaq joint to the party with MACD/RSI divergences. On this chart is shown expanding ED.

Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, hanging somewhere in the middle without clear signal. They are showing weakness and not strength that is why I think the next move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with long term divergence lower tops since late 2016.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to reach the overbought territory.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like climax, lowest level since 1993 and sharp reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle. The low for the 20 day cycle will show us if we will see one more high.

Week 10 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
On the weekly chart we have finished combo/countdown, but no price flip. On the daily chart setup was finished this week.

Russell2000

Weekly preview

Short term view - decision time, I think the direction will be lower.
Intermediate term view - I expect a top and correction for a few weeks.

The analysis has not changed - we saw the small moves down and up this week and reached a crossroad. Either bearish scenario (top for iii of 3 or B) with a move below 2320 or bullish continuation higher for another 2-3 weeks to finish wave 3 to around 2475-2500. All tools I use favor the bearish scenario. Now waiting for the market to show its cards and we trade accordingly.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same like last week just reached the point where the scenarios should start move in different directions. Bearish below 2320 or bullish continuation towards 2500.

Intermediate term - I think it is more likely to see MACD/RSI divergences than the price breaking out above the trend line,going vertically higher and erasing the divergences.

Long term - the oscillators a showing divergence so I expect intermediate term correction. This is not the top of the bull market.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - are hanging somewhere in the middle without clear signal. They could move to overbought territory confirming bullish move or to oversold territory confirming bearish move. They look weak to me.... that is why I think the next move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with long term divergence lower tops since late 2016.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - again below 10... this is high risk for longs.
Advance-Decline Issues - trying to reach overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Day 11 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 9 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Now we have 13 on the weekly chart for a finished combo/countdown and waiting for a price flip.