Weekly preview

Nothing new this week, the market working on this small c-wave and 20d high. Now waiting to see the reaction next week - if it is big enough for possible 20w high and turn lower into 18m low.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy, possible turn into 18m low next week.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same c-wave and zig-zag completing. Next is decline which again will wipe out one month gains.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
The same like last week. In logarithmic scale Fibo measurement has been reached Y=0,618xW.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change in the last few weeks. One more sell off is needed to complete the correction, this is the message from market breadth. It is resetting higher and not reversing.
McClellan Oscillator - around the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - trying to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - testing the overbought level around 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - testing the overbought level around 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and in the middle of the range. For the first time cumultive A/D is showing signs of topping.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - mature 20d cycle high at least 5w high so next is decline for at least 5w low.

The long term count is not very clear, there is no visible significant low, the indices do not show consistent picture so we will be sure only in hindsight where the 18m low is.
At the moment I think the best fit is 20w high and 40w/18m cycle low with one extra 10w cycle. Alternate the 18m low was in June/July which will mean next is decline into 20w low until October/November.

Weekly preview

No surprises this week very slow price action - 20d/b-wave low on Tuesday and now crawling higher for at least 5w/c-wave high. The indices are close to 20w high so careful with longs.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy, found support at MA10 because of expected 20d cycle low.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely another zig-zag from a bigger zig-zag (see the daily charts). Less likely green b-wave is not completed.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
For the Dow pattern which makes sense is shown on the chart with 18m high right on schedule. There is many indices with this pattern.

SP500 could be counted differently like double zig-zag for C/Y. I have already shown this counts pick your favorite.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change in the last few weeks. One more sell off is needed to complete the correction, this is the message from market breadth.
McClellan Oscillator - up and down around the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, reached the oversold level.
Bullish Percentage - testing the overbought level around 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range, does not show signs of strength.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing, expect one more spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - lower high and in the middle of the range. For the first time cumultive A/D is showing signs of topping.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 20d low and now heading higher into at least 5w high which could be 20w high too. Already day 9 so another 1-2-3 days.

The long term count is not very clear, there is no visible significant low, the indices do not show consistent picture so we will be sure only in hindsight where the 18m low is.
At the moment I think the best fit is 20w high and 40w/18m cycle with one extra 10w cycle.