Weekly preview

Higher as expected now we should see something lower for a few days. Short term looks clear - 20d high and now in the middle of 20d low. Intermediate term this is 18m/80w high currently week 74 from the last significant high - the cycle looks like 3x25 week long cycles and the last of this three cycles consisting of 5x5w cycles.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some count this as an impulse... this waves 2 and 3 are too ugly for me and 4 breaking the channel... I would rather count tripple zig-zag.
If you looking for impulse NYSE looks more like impulse.
I will not be surprised to see decline and the next trend line broken... may be we have not seen the 10w low.

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - ready for divergence when we see the price making higher high.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d high now lower for a few days into 20d low. It looks like 5x5w cycle highs to me for 3x25 week long cycles.

Week 11 for the 20w cycle. The last low should be of 40w magnitude and this high is of 18m magnitude consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.

Weekly preview

Turn lower as expected. The weekly candle closed below the open from the last two weekly candles so with high probability we have reversal into 20w low. On the other side we should see 10w low so not sure how the topping process will play out.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. At intermediate term high now topping process.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - wave lower and now we should see turn higher, but it is not confirmed at the moment.

Intermediate term - two zig-zags down and up with the same size... next should be decline probably C-wave for a flat.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low.If we are lucky this is some topping pattern triangle or ED and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turning lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turning lower.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - short term higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d low next is higher for 20d high.... probably 10w low too.

Week 10 for the 20w cycle. This should be 20w cycle high and turn lower into 20w low.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating - 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.
From the October.2022 low the cycles do not follow the theoretical model.
The highs - we have one 40w high and one 18m high consisting of 3x20w extended cycles instead of 2x40w, but the same average length 15-16 months.
The lows - we have 20w and 40w cycle, I guess one more 20w cycle(the current one) to complete 18m/4y cycle.