Weekly preview

Short term view - not sure... one more leg lower for the pullback will look better.
Intermediate term view - the pattern is not clear, I think wave 4 is not over and B wave is running.

Choppy pullback this week as expected... which does not help us much, the pattern is still unclear. Most of the indexes with a-b-c, RUT and NDX with impulse..... more confusion. Short term the same store is the pullback over or not.
The perfect fake out will be to see sharp move lower for 2-3 days to finish b of B then reversal again for c of B , but shorter in time and price and reversal again for wave C triangle/zig-zag/flat.
I doubt 2 weeks will correct a rally for more than a year, it will be strange that is why the primary scenario is the indexes are still in wave 4.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see only a-b-c(red) higher. The pattern and the indicators do not look like a reversal so more likely b of B. Is it finished or not I do not know. Looking at RUT and for more confusion it will be nice to see another leg lower.

Here is how RUT(IWM chart) looks like. I see an impulse with perfect Fibo measurements. This pullback looks too short time and price....

Intermediate term - as I wrote 2 weeks look too short to correct 15 months. It is more likely that this is wave B. Possible patterns flat, zig-zag or triangle.

Long term - one more rally before the bull market is over.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - most of them look bullish and it is more likely that wave B is not finished.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up, buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in the oversold area.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - cooling off, fear fades out:)
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Day 9 of the 40 day cycle.

Week 12+2 the low for wave 4 should be the low for this 20 week cycle.

Weekly preview

Short term view - pullback and one more high.
Intermediate term view - leg lower, more likely with higher low and higher again.

Higher to the MA50 daily this was obvious, the surprise is again the speed. We are in no man's land at the moment, at a point where different scenarios are possible. Until we see the next move lower no one can tell you for sure. This is wave 4, they are very notorious and the most difficult to predict. Usually you should not even think about trading. The difference this time is the swings are so huge it is tempting to trade them.
If this is wave 1 I do not like how fast and high it moves. The consensus is that we have wave c of B expanded flat and one more leg lower to finish the correction. I do not like it when everybody see the same. Why not "a of B" of a triangle?
I do not know.... is it B or 1 or something else, but I think we should see one more test of the low. I do not believe in V shape recovery.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - choppy move... it needs 4-5 4-5 to look like an impulse(green). If the indexes turn lower now the move will be just an a-b-c(red).

Intermediate term - I think we will see one more move lower. If it is 1-2(green) expect deep retracement 61,8% and test of the trend line around 2620. If it is B(red) wave C lower to around 2500. I will not be surprised if this is a of B from the triangle which I have shown previous week.

Long term - one more rally before the bull market is over.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - most turned up, but McClellan indicators are still bearish. I suspect at least a test of the low and higher low for the market breadth indicators.
McClellan Oscillator - moved above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, reached oversold level.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, buy signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower after hitting 50, this is normal such levels are short living.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, I expect to see one more higher low.


HURST CYCLES
Day 5 of the next 40 day cycle.

Week 12+1 waiting to see if wave IV is finished or not.