Dec 6, 2025

Update

Now the move looks like impulse and you can see it bullish another leg up has started or bearish corrective pattern has been completed(SPXEW shows it more clear the charts below).
In both cases I think FOMC will be a high then lower before Christmas and higher for the holidays. The size of this moves will give us more clarity.

The last move up looks like impulse now and it could be 1 or c flat correction.
SPXEW bullish - wave 1/c after completed w-x-y/b.
What bothers me with the bullish case is if we have 40w low why did not we see fear - market breadth indicators just hovering in the middle of their ranges.
SPXEW bearish - flat correction completing x-wave with y/b to follow.

Nov 30, 2025

Update

Leg higher as expected and all this one month after the previous high. Still the most likely scenario is b-wave and 5w high.

Two legs higher with the same size this should be a b-wave in the big picture.
In theory this should be 5w high and in the big picture we should see a decline into 20w/40w low.