Weekly preview

Nothing new, it looks like a pause during the holidays the b/2-wave for 5w high and now the next leg lower 3/c.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term turn lower into 40w cycle low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - some sideways move and second leg lower.

Intermediate term - nothing new the first target should be MA200 and support in the 5600-5700 area.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators resetting and turned lower... I would say one more decline for sustainable low.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - base for another run higher?

HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 5w high divides in three shorter cycles and next should be lower into 10w low.

Next important low should be 40w low - earliest in March or it could stretch until May.

2025 what to expect....

Sharp decline the first half of the year in the range 20%-30% followed by retracement or higher high... probably for the rest of the year. After we see the decline we can make some conclusions what to expect after that.

From pattern perspective the move from the important low in 2022 is complete and we have two legs from the covid low in 2020. So either we have:
- completed pattern zig-zag and reversal, the first decline is usually followed by deep retracement.
- or wave 4 decline of the same degree as the one from 2022 followed by wave 5 and higher high.

From cycle perspective... explained already how the 7 year cyle and 9 year Hurst cycle synchronize:
- the 7 year cycle has series of short-short/long-long cycles and next year is time for the next important cycle low.

- the 9 year Hurst cycle - if you stick to the theory next year should be 4 year cycle low followed by M-pattern and reversal into 9y cycle low.

Best fit 4y cycle and the 40w cycle since 2020, the pattern - impulse shown which is not a guarentee.....