Weekly preview

Deep decline... illusionary strength not a surprise at all the markets are topping. Best case some topping pattern like ED, but so late in the cycle week 33 for the 40w cycle high I am rather sceptical.... more likely we have reversal from 40w high.
As I wrote last week quick look at the weekly indicators shows this is final move not a beginning and this week proved it... a lot of excitement for nothing.



TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term at 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it could be impulse with extended third wave 2.168, but we need to see waves 4 and 5.
The pattern from the August low is very odd and it is difficult to say what exatcly we have.

Intermediate term - complex wave Y... waiting for more clarity if this is the top.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower with divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower with divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low and next 20d high... maybe we saw the 20w high already.
The ugly pattern does not help to pin 10w cycle high/low with conviction... I have the feeling two weeks ago we had 10w low.

Week 32+1 for the 40w high - in the time band for a high.

Weekly preview

A lot of excitement.... at the top. The big picture has not changed at all - we have another zig-zag(majority count impulse) completing bigger double zig-zag from the 10.2023 low and even bigger double zig-zag from the 10.2022 low at week 32 for the 40w cycle high(rigth on time), with daily/weekly/monthly divergence.

Short said nothing changed.... in fact there is one difference - now we have market breadth divergences the final missing ingredient from the list above.
I have added DJT charts to see crystal clear the pattern - three double zig-zags from different degrees most likely c/Y/B... all this heavily skewed by tech stock leading to very choppy/complex pattern y-wave for the SPX, but still the same.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term important top it could be 4y cycle high. Intermediate term at 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - another shitty impulse.... which is not an impulse. I would say zig-zags as usual in the last several years.
For the leg from this week impulse can be counted according to RSI.

Intermediate term - complex wave Y caused by tech stocks. Either this version of a zig-zag or the one from the previous chart and triangle like NDX.
Very consistent cycle highs at wave/pattern highs the next one is due - this is not a beginning it is an end.

Complex - NDX most likely triangle X-wave and the final zig-zag

Simple - DJT clear double zig-zag for the c-wave no confusion about impulse. The higher degree the Y-wave no new high in August, no triangle just clear double zig-zag.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

DJT weekly the whole double zig-zag from 2022. It looks to me like B-wave for a flat correction... I will not be surprised to see sharp decline C-wave and 54month cycle low from a 9y cycle according to the Hurst theory.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned higher, but not even close to the previous high... probably divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - sligthly above zero with multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, most likely divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, most likely divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, most likely divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower and divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - waiting for the completition of 20d/5w/20w/40w cycle high.

Week 32 for the 40w high - in the time band for a high.