Those who were two greedy and did not took seriously the charts and the completed pattern were punished. Maybe insults and rants will help next time.
Short term - waves 4-5 to complete impulse will fit best.
Intermediate term - you can count a-b-c from the February high or w-x-y from the December high. I preffer w-x-y because most of the other indices like NYSE,SPXEW,DJ made a high late November, in November you have the 40w cycle high, and this decline did not occur suddenly it was building for months.
Long term - most of the EW guys count this as wave 4 from the 2020 low... I am sceptical, it has to be expanding ending diagonal very rare pattern and the next wave higher should be bigger than the last one - not very likely. On the weekly chart the RSI trend line from 2020 was broken and it moved below 30 into oversold territory - this is not how wave 4 behaves.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waves 4-5 to complete impulse lower.
Intermediate term - based on other indices the most likely pattern is w-x-y. If you look at NYSE,SPXEW,DJ you have 5 legs from the top, but you can not count impulse so most likely we will see 7 legs for the usual double zig-zag.
SPX - from the top early December expanded flat w-wave, zig-zag X and 20w high and now a-b-c zig-zag for y-wave and a low around support and the trend line line from 2020.
Long term - zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - now we have some oversold levels, but some divergences too.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - oversold level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5 and 20d low will fit perfect.
I think we have 20w high late March and now heading lower into 20w low.
The indices are in the time band for 40w cycle low, average length is 32-36 weeks. Probably it will take a few more weeks and it is likely this is a low from a higher degree.
