Weekly preview

The wedge is playing out... overall nothing new to add when completed it will mark important high - 40w cycle high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term topping process for important high 4y cycle high. Intermediate term higher into 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like wedge in the final wave.

Intermediate term - it looks like complex pattern for the Y-wave.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - in the upper part of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - shorter 20d cycles to fit the pattern. Alternate at 20d high with one more for important top.

Higher into 40w high the fifth one for the current 4y cycle high.... it is mature, maybe it has one more 20d cycle or not.

Weekly preview

The same range for second week. Nothing new to add - either completed zig-zag part of bigger double zig-zag or variation shown on the fifth chart which will look better with cycles and lead to market breadth divergences.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term topping process for important high 4y cycle high. Intermediate term higher into 40w cycle high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a mess so far... so waiting, probably completed y-wave and a-b now. Alternate y is not completed.

Intermediate term - it looks like complex pattern for the Y-wave. Now we have more clarity - the most common pattern for years is double zig-zag and we have it completed at different degrees(black y/Y). Another variant of this pattern is shown below.
Alternate this could be simple zig-zag a-b-c with c-wave ending diagonal to complete around the elections. Low probability simple Y-wave with a top in July and now in the b-wave of a flat(grey y/Y) - this b-wave is very common pattern in the tech sector, look at MSFT/NDX/SOX for example.

Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - turn lower into 5w low which should be 10w low too.
Speculation is shown how we can have 10w low and 20w high with average length.

Higher into 40w high the fifth one for the current 4y cycle high.... We have several shorter 40w cycles 25 weeks long, the current one is 27 weeks long - could this be the top with another shorter cycle?