Jul 7, 2025

Weekly preview

As expected a few more days higher to complete the 20d cycle high which should be at least 20w cycle high.
Short term it looks like we have double zig-zag - two legs with the same length in time.
Intermediate term - higher into July as expected and now pattern+cycles+market breadth pointing to completed move and time to decline into 20w cycle low for the rest of July.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like the usual double zig-zag. I see two legs with the same length and 50% Fibo correlation.


Intermediate term - next should be b-wave. In red the alternate bearish scenarios wave 5 or flat c/Y.


Long term - wedge(from 2020) for c/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2025.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - divergences and time for turn lower.
McClellan Oscillator - divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned higher and divergence.
Bullish Percentage - divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - short and long term divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this should be 20d and 20w cycle high.


Long term cycles - this should be 20w high and possible 40w cycle high.

9 comments:

  1. What do you think about the liquidity, look at M2, it's kill the dollar, the money go to the stocks

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    Replies
    1. I do not care about M2 all that matters is charts and cycles September/October major top completing the move from 2009.

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    2. If they just raised the debt ceiling by 5 trillion, it means they are going to print. If they print, all prices tend to go higher. I understand your point about charts and cycles but in 2020/2021 it was similar where charts and cycles pointed lower but Fed had lowered interest rates and they were printing and it was only up. Don't you think it really depends on liquidity injection in the future?

      Delete
  2. I remember before the elections you had said, "they" give an impression that american voters have a choice but in reality its the same people controlling both sides. I didn't believe it at that time. But now I wonder.. https://x.com/brucefenton/status/1942697187164467489

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The so called democracy is just a theater. It is not just US or Trump it is everywhere... you can not change the system with voting the game is rigged.
      Create strong polarization, two camps fight each other with passion no thinking any more just emotions and you can do what ever you want with the masses.
      In the background nothing changes the - big business banks,military,pharma making more money on the expense of the average people.... and the state abuses you as usual.

      Delete
  3. Krasi, what do you think on BTC?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Either completing double zig-zag now or triangle/ED in a few months - https://invst.ly/1bcssg
      Major top like the indices and cut in a half.... just for starter.

      Delete