Jun 7, 2015


Gold makes me crazy I can not decide if this will be THE bottom of the bear market or just important bottom.
For a long time I thought that the scenario for a major bottom has higher probability, but after playing with the chart of gold priced in EUR I have changed my mind. A think both bull and bears will be surprised. Most of the analysis I read are - bear market lower 750... or what so ever, major bottom soon but first lower 950-1000. I think it will be something in the middle and mister market will screw both camps which makes me even more confident:)))

Main scenario is lower until end of July mid August but higher low for silver and for gold 1090-1100 surprising bull an bears, followed by another plunge lower catching of guard both camps. The move will be worth trading ~30% gold(~1420), ~50% silver(~21), 100%-200% miners so watch closely what happens when gold reaches around 1100.

The count is not important there is a lot of variations important is which idea is right final bottom or just important low. XAU/EUR and Silver are hinting that this is not the bottom.

If I am right early August the gold will be near 1100 and silver above the previous low. It will be a nice entry point to ride the rally...
I think seasonality is favorable for PM from August to year end which fits perfect with EW/cycles which I am presenting.

Clear impulse followed by three higher, three lower with lower low and impulse higher.... what should I say clear corrective pattern expanded flat.
After impulse and corrective pattern another impulse lower follows. The alternative is the gold bottoms but the euro shoots to the moon so that gold priced in euro sinks like a rock...

I expect Silver to make higher low this will confirm my plan.... the important is the moves will be three waves which is corrective structure.

Added charts Gold Miners

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