Short term - looks like we have the ED for v/3/c. As long as the pullback stays around the 2890 area (38% retracement,trend line,support,gap,the previous wave iv) it is the perfect wave 4. Strong move on Friday, some are counting already finished w4, but it looks too short for daily cycle low.
Moving below 2870(50% retracement) and overlapping with the previous high.... means the move from the March low is over.
Intermediate term - another few days lower next week for daily cycle low and w4 followed by one more high and we will have nice clean pattern.
Long term - one more leg lower to finish wave IV from 2009 - D for triangle(zig-zag decline) or B for a flat(sharp sell off as an impulse). Decline in three waves and a low in Q1.2020 will fit better with cycles.
I do not know how to count an impulse, but if I am wrong it is wave 1/V.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - weakness most of the indicators with divergences, the next bigger move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with divergence .
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower with divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - series of higher lows with divergence will look good.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergences ...
HURST CYCLES
For 20 week cycle low the time is running out... we should see sharp decline for a few weeks now. If we do not see this happen it will confirm that we have a high of 40 week cycle degree.
Day 38 - the current daily cycle turned lower. It is strong right translated and the next one should make higher high.
Week 19... I suspect stealth 20 week cycle low behind us and the coming high is of 40 week cycle degree.
The short term bottom is in, this is a zigzag from March lows. Today was a clue that this is going higher, and corrective pullback is done. Here is my count https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/I5t9h5XD-Looking-for-a-top/
ReplyDeleteThis is huge ED unproportionate to the rest of the waves.
DeleteYou have at the same time strength extended fifth wave the same size like 1-3 and weakness ED for the fifth wave... both is not possible.
I've never heard that an extended 5th wave can't be an ED. Ending diagonal doesn't always imply weakness it just means the market moved too far too fast so there is slowing of momentum and you get a diagonal like my chart shows.
DeleteThe name says everything "ending" diagonal - the trend is ending and it will reverse and not momentum is slowing.
DeleteFor me extended fifth wave as a diagonal is just ridiculous.
I think the market topped, looks like a zigzag from March lows that was complete last Wednesday. Should see start of a downtrend now. Nobody will believe it until we are in a wave 3, that's the way these things go.
DeleteIf the market topped it should accelerate lower in a third wave below 2800... in a week we will know:)
DeleteTop with three waves is very suspicious, you have to count w-x-y pattern... not very nice.
I am watching for possible 20 week cycle low around 20th of Mai with a zig-zag. Than wave c/B is ED with 1-2 finished(second half of May) and 3-4-5 in June-July-August.
What would be a estimated range for the 5th leg in August?
DeleteWithout waves 2 and 3 it is difficult to project targets... but it should be roughly 3000-3010.
DeleteLets see first if this is the pattern:)
I dont like the wave 3 from the first chart, it is very horizontal, I think it is corrective structure. Even on that same chart wave 1 is more vertical than wave 3
ReplyDeleteI do not think this is such a big problem... with corrective structure you have to count expanding ED very rare and the price action from Friday is not very supportive for w4 below 2860.
DeleteIs it possible that the low of last week or if there is still another low for wave 4 next week is the 20 week cycle January-May (around 18 weeks)? and then it starts the second 20 week cycle next week or the next one.
ReplyDeleteThere is no evidence to support it.... from time to time you have dominant cycle with almost perfect bell shape and the rest of the cycles the shorter one are not visible.
DeleteI think we have dominant 40 week cycle where the shorter cycles "disappear" and we will see nice bell shape for the 40 week cycle.
In this case the shorter cycles cause some "wobble" on the left and right side of the bell... I can not find the picture it is similar to H&S pattern.
The first one on the left side was late February to late March period I suspect there we have stealth 20 week cycle low. Most likely we will see something similar on the right side around the same levels in June.
It means bullish until July?
DeleteBullish until July if we see 20 week cycle low in the next few weeks.
DeleteIf the 40 week cycle turns lower it is bearish until August/September.
The next 2-3 weeks will show what is going on.
Hi Krasi, on the 15 minute chart, don't we have an expanded abc starting at the end of the april 19 session and ending on May 2? Thank you
ReplyDeleteIf there is expanding flat is starts on April 29, this is what some EW guys are counting for finished w4.... maybe but not my favorite.
Deletew2 was sharp so w4 should take time according to the rule of alternation. This is what I want to see for daily cycle low too - a few more days. Two days wonder is way too short.
sorry, yes I meant april 29 - thanks for your reply!
ReplyDeleteI think I have deja vu December.2018 exactly the same situation:
ReplyDelete- wave 4-5 to finish impulse and the whole sell off would fit perfect
- this supposed w4 was moving up as a zig-zag and reached the 38% retracement zone
- this supposed w4 was moving too fast instead of weak move retracing time
Back then I wrote this is very suspicious and now I see exactly the same behavior 1:1.
Most of this gap should be retraced today(or at least 38%-50%) to keep alive this w4 as a flat or triangle.... but I am skeptical.
Do you mean hourly or daily chart? Thanks.
DeleteThis 4 on the hourly chart.... we have the needed waves and the target was hit, but I have doubts that the correction is finished.
DeleteAnd the eur/usd?, wave 3 of C?
ReplyDeleteIt is really a mess.... the obvious is some ugly ED for C currently 3/C.
DeleteThe "surprising" count is ugly flat correction currently b/B with one more rally higher 1.18-1.19.
It is ugly pattern, but it will fit perfect with stocks and precious metals - preferred low in Q1.2020 caused by strong USD.
Just watch the next wave up - weak zig-zag followed by another lower low it is ED for C, impulse higher most likely c/B.
Target for ED???
Deletearound 1.10-1.105
DeleteHow will we know if the 40 week cycle turns lower ?
ReplyDeleteIf the decline continue more than 3 weeks most likely we have bigger decline or we see impulse lower to confirm reversal.
Deletehow far down are we going
DeleteI see something between 2830-2860....
DeleteI think 2720, around 38%
Deleteperhaps re-short the upper trendline around 2909 , which of course is the 50% retrace too.....
ReplyDeleteI am sorry to late the answer.... 2900 was the line in the sand(my post below with the link - the red line ) to invalidate the count and it was respected yesterday twice:)
DeleteThis "feels" like a 4. Your thoughts Krasi?
ReplyDeleteOn Monday I wrote this is not w4 from the first chart.
DeleteThe only chance for w4 is if we see a low now around MA50 and w5 for expanding ending diagonal.... Not my favorite pattern....
So in short term snp will plunge further?
ReplyDeleteYes, there is more to the downside I will post a chart.
DeleteFor something bearish finished impulse is needed. It should look like this - https://imgur.com/a/wFG0jqI
ReplyDeleteWaves v/3-4-5 are still not completed for impulse. Yesterday MA200/resistance/the trend line were tested successfully. Break above the red line would mean the impulse is invalidated, but it was respected yesterday.
If this move lower reverses at the red arrow we will have only a-b-c around 2860, with one more up and down we will have finished impulse around 2830. This were my targets from above 2830-2860 - depending which pattern is playing out. No surprises so far, now waiting for the market to show us which one it is.
If this goes down to 2830, what would that movement be?
ReplyDeleteWave i of 1 or a... but it should take the path shown on the chart above and not just drop lower.
DeleteAt the moment my feeling tells me this is just corrective move and we will see one more high, but let this leg lower plays out first.
Why must it take the path on the chart above? Also what if it just keeps going below 2830?
DeleteBecause certain number of waves is needed for impulse.... impulse means reversal.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/j8BcyVj
ReplyDeletelooks like 2834
ReplyDeleteIndexes like SOX NDX XLY with corrective patterns... that is why I think this move is just a correction and today should be a bottom.
Deletethe question is is 2800 the bottom which was resistance maybe resistance is support?
DeleteIs BA a corrective pattern?
DeleteThe big picture yes, but intermediate term I see move up and lower again.
DeleteI agree - 2800 for a panic sell would look better
ReplyDeleteThis will mean we have a top and another higher high is not possible.... and I think we will see one final high.
DeleteWhy is not possible?
DeleteBecause the current pop will be wave 4 and 2800 w5, which means impulse and reversal with more to the downside or no new high.
DeleteI see another possibility. To 1 March wave A, 8 March a/B, 1 May b/B, now wave c/B to 2800
DeleteForget about such running flat...
Deletethanks Krasi - you got your 283x print so spot on so far . I was hoping for a crap-out sell into the weekend as folks won't want to be long into that .One more high would be a gift , so either way I'm content
ReplyDeleteYes, one final high will be a great gift:) but if we see reversal and lower high it is fine for me...
Deletethe w 4 option could see them park it at 2870 ish going into the w/e for maximum confusion ...
ReplyDeleteWe can only wait and see if the indexes will make one more lower low or not...
DeleteThe duration of the 9 years cycle is 6.5-7.5?
ReplyDelete9 years is the nominal model... the theory. In practice for the US indexes it is shorter usually 7-7.5 years.... that is why I was very bullish in 2016 - big correction after 7 years.
DeleteThen in 2023 an important low. So in 2022 end of the bullish cycle?
ReplyDeleteSomething like that.... but do not take it literally this is not like a clock:)
DeleteIt is not a problem to see a high/low 6-12 months earlier or later... the cycle length vary.
This is the reason why some say cycles do not work.
I combine it with EW to see if the pattern is complete or not.
Just curious....where do you see the next buy point since you are expecting one more new high?
ReplyDeleteIt is always the same - after higher low or lower low with divergence.
DeleteCurrently the next low.... of course when it comes next week the charts should be assessed again.
Looking forward to your update. I'm feeling bullish for next week. Am I crazy? (Not Krasi?)
ReplyDelete2954 top.. Now down Started.. Today again near 2890 sub top.. Next 200 fall
ReplyDelete