Short term - no matter how you count - impulse,impulse with extended fifth wave or a-b-c all this patterns are complete now and we should see decline starting next week. Confirmation is break of the trend line and move below 3090.
Intermediate term - one more touch of the trend line like July, MACD adding short term divergence to the multiple intermediate term divergences, RSI testing the broken trend line.
Next we should see decline to MA50 or MA200 to test one of the support levels. This wave lower with its size and shape will give us more information what is going on.
Long term - at the top of wave B. Expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020 to complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate scenario a decline in three waves, but still a decline.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same weak with multiple divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero with multiple divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with multiple divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - at the overbought level with multiple divergences.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - at the overbought level with multiple divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - expect sharp rise higher after building base for a while.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range with multiple divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Day 6 for the second daily cycle.
Week 14 for the 20 week cycle.
Do you think this 20 week cycle will have 3 daily cycles to mid January?
ReplyDeleteFirst to clarify in Hurst theory there is no three 80 day cycles in one 20 week cycle and this "daily" cycles sometimes match the 80 day Hurst cycle sometimes not.
DeleteThis daily cycles are very simple to follow and very effective for trading. They do not care about EW pattern or Hurst cycles where the low is in August or October.
Probably I should stop mixing trading(daily) cycle with Hurst theory on the daily chart.
Now to the question - yes I expect decline to around mid December and then one more daily cycle.
If the decline is impulsive we will see lower high, if the decline is corrective we should see higher high.
Hi Krasi ... appreciate your work. However, my non EW T/A says we accelerate north from here.
ReplyDeleteAnd PMs drop eventually into late Dec lows. Also ... in an ESL vein, indexes => indices, and begun is a word, but in this context its began (simple past tense). Begun always needs have or had before it.
I can not see any signs of acceleration. The most bullish pattern I can see is test of MA50 and one more high which is not really acceleration. This is not based only on EW, market breadth is awful, two months later it is too late the price accelerates at the beginning of the cycle and not in the second part.
DeleteI know the difference began/begun stupid mistake, I do not know what "ESL vein" is on Internet I see both indexes/indices...
Hi Krasi, on another EW blog has this move as a WXY from the December low. Completing (B) anytime now. Someone asked a really good question whether we could still be in a of Y. And he answered that yes, we could. What would invalidate it would be if the downward wave is too long in length or time. The $64k question, for me, is if we get a decline from here, at what point we would know for sure that the high was a B wave?
ReplyDeleteFor me the theory is not so important if it is a-b-c or w-x-y, the important message is the move is corrective.
DeleteThe probability for a/Y is very low best case another 4 and 5 - look at different indices and check leading shares. I check top 20 DJ shares and I see completed patterns no room for b-c/Y. Examples MSFT,DIS finishing fifth wave, UNH,UTH,JPM,HD finishing B wave.
The early sign for B finished and C lower is decline with impulse to around MA50 for i/1/C and confirmation is completed impulse 1/C between the August-June lows.
More bullish count on the 10-min chart - https://imgur.com/a/YSGNpPL
ReplyDeleteDouble top before reversal with divergences on the 1h and 4h charts.
It will look great for those who are searching for a short entry close to the top.
If it happens I will add another 1/3 of the planned position.
So what's our play now? You just wrote a convincing post that the top was in. Do we short here or go long? Sounds like your saying go long for another top then short? I'm confused with all the flip flopping. How do we play this?
DeleteThis is just 10min chart with 15 points higher... You sound somehow lost so I will suggest to wait for confirmation - lower high later in December.
DeleteMy plan is - already 1/3 short waiting for the next high or confirmation for the next 1/3.
gotcha thanks
DeleteHe isn't here to provide you with a trading plan...put down the game controller and learn something on your own
DeleteSiminsays some readers are not so experienced.... I have to admit I do not explain much about trading assuming that the readers have their trading system and my analysis is just an assistance.
DeleteI see more and more confusion about analysis,trading,entry points,trading plan.
From this week one chart will be about trading simple approach so beginners do not get confused.
Thanks Krasi. I have a full time job and part time gig. I also have three kids so I have to pick and choose where I focus my learning. I like to use your blog as one of my tools to make a decision. Sorry we all can't be as smart as Siminsays.
DeleteWe need some kind of reversal pattern, for example, a double top, need to see the limit-seller(2 por 3 bars on D") all these lines down are not a little.all these lines down are just guessing games without pattern confirmation.
ReplyDeleteThere is no such condition like double top what ever. Two important highs in 2018 do you see some kind of reversal pattern?- No. Why? - because there is no trend, we have a bunch of corrective waves since Jan.2018.
DeleteOf course that top/bottom nailing is a guessing game, but at least with EW it can be narrowed down to the this high or one more - good enough for me for trading. I am confident enough to trade it.
Europe looks to me like very extended third wave and now w5 as ED which needs iv-v/5 to complete the rally from the October low. In fact DAX is moving sideways for a month, which is not exactly rally rather topping - https://imgur.com/a/z7Ul8UJ
ReplyDeleteThe decline you expect in mid december will be 5 week cycle low?
ReplyDeleteIf I am right yes, if I am wrong the 20w cycle begun in October and it will be 10w cycle low
DeleteI don't understand why in the answer above you say after the decline in December it will be one more daily cycle. Shouldn't it be just one more 5 week cycle?
DeleteThe cycle which I call daily is not a Hurst cycle it is more like cycle for trading. Sometimes it matches the 80 day Hurst cycle sometimes not. This week I will stop mixing both and talk more about the daily(trading) cycle, because that is what matters. From this point of view most likely we will see one more daily cycle(price crossing below MA10 and more time above it) which does not necessarily mean 80 day cycle.
Delete3157 in the morning, one more high
ReplyDeleteYes, the futures hit this 15 points higher... now we can only wait and watch for reversal signs.
DeleteDAX dropped sharply so the ED seems to work.
Now if you look ar the decline on short term chart like 5min It looks like an impulse.... corrective move up with a high below 3157 is a sell signal.
Delete20 week cycle low expected for late December early January?
ReplyDeleteI expect it late January, most of the Hurst guys count a low in October with the next 20 week low in February.
Deleteboom!
ReplyDeleteTo summarize the futures made one more high the 15 points, the cash index did not... interesting both short term counts are right.
ReplyDeleteThen the futures declined with clear impulse before the opening w1 and both continued lower in sync with w3.
The decline looks like impulse to me, by the way this is the first time since Dec.2018. The previous three declines in 2019 began with choppy move lower.... maybe this time is different:)
DJI https://imgur.com/a/uorH14T - classical price reversal - finished count, RSI broken and tested trend line with divergence, price breaking the trend line and closing below MA10 triggering sell signal.
Next is retracement most likely until tomorrow, then the decline continues until mid-December followed by move up around Christmas.
If we have a real reversal and the move from Dec.2018 is finished we should see a pattern like on the chart to confirm it.
Trading plan:
- 1/3 already short
- if we see sudden reversal and higher high close the 1/3 position for small loss
- if we see corrective retracement today/tomorrow - another 1/3 short
- if we see corrective move lower(mid.December) close shorts with small profit.
- if we see impulse lower - holding and if we see corrective pattern adding another 1/3 around Christmas for full position.
- if the price continue higher after Christmas and starts challenging the high - close shorts break even.
This is how you can build a position at a price close to the high with low risk covering all possible outcomes. The analysis says probable important high and I will try my luck. I do not care if my analysis is right or wrong, because I have good trading plan and I am comfortable with the risk I am taking.
It sounds complicated, but it is not. You just have to think a little bit and be flexible.
Who says you have to place one big bet trying to hit the top/bottom and hoping that the market will not overrun you?
thank u
Deletethank
DeleteDo you think the channel has been effectively violated or should we wait for the close to determine if it has been a successful channel break?
ReplyDeleteYou often see a channel break and it whipshaws back to close within the channel
DeleteThe channel was broken yesterday... the candle closed below the trend line and M10 at the low for the day.
DeleteI cant count impulse, you?
ReplyDeleteNo, one more low is needed, but I doubt we will see it.
DeleteThen the futures declined with clear impulse before the opening w1 and both continued lower in sync with w3.
ReplyDeleteThe decline looks like impulse to me, by the way this is the first time since Dec.2018
What changed?
Instead a pause for a day or two we saw continuation.
DeleteWhere do you think that leaves us now?
ReplyDeleteNow is let the move to play out, before making any conclusions....
DeleteFor now it looks corection, ABC
ReplyDeleteDec.2018 began with a zig-zag too and look what happened:)
DeleteMany are counting w4 from the October low. It does not really fit, but who knows...
What could be this wave 4? From where?
Delete"w4 from the October low" should be clear enough.
Deleteaaaaah, I dont see an impulse, wave 3 too much overlapped waves
DeleteI do not like this impulse count too and wrote that it is probably a-b-c like this - https://imgur.com/a/uorH14T
DeleteKrasi, ED can be impuls?
ReplyDeleteThis is rare I would rather count one of this - https://imgur.com/a/6iUdBMh
DeleteUsually w4 does not brake the trend line... so this up move is suspicious nothing to support it.
VIX back to 17 with not much of a decline, seems like this will go higher rather than lower
ReplyDelete3200👍👍
DeleteI do not think the decline is over.
Delete3200😎
Delete3175
DeleteI think it's not but the nice canal look in the mounthly chart didn't break before 3000
ReplyDeleteIt depends on if you use the candle shadows or not. I think this is how the trend line should look like - https://imgur.com/a/I44nOSB
DeleteThis way you have the most touches and break is higher 3050.
Overall the monthly chart looks awful.
RSI testing the broken trend line for the second time with double divergence.
Bearish wedge which is ready to break lower.
The bull could squeeze one more month to test the upper trend line, but then is water fall lower to the Dec.2018 low.
Think we are shaping up for another ATH into year end
ReplyDeleteLets wait the decline to play out before making conclusions.
Deletedax from 15 august to 2 december 16 weeks, 20 week cycle???
ReplyDeleteI do not see signs for important low.
DeleteNot looking good for lower
ReplyDeleteThe decline is not over, bullish case is flat or triangle.
DeleteAlternate this two days decline are somehow w4 from the October low and the indexes are completing w1 of ED.
DeleteWhat I mean with this patterns is the upside move is another zig-zag.
Krasi do you follow Avi Gilburt? You seem to often align with his analysis
ReplyDeleteYes, I check his free posts. Align.... yes and no - short term that an impulse is running yes, the big picture w4 and w5 from 2009 yes(there is no much to argue about this two), how the correction for w4 looks like I have completely different view.
DeleteThank you Krasi. I thought that both you and Avi - for the long term - subscribed to the view of a 5 wave decline to revisit the 2018 lows as your primary count. Is that incorrect? Thank you again.. I've been following your blog for a while and I find your analysis to be more complete than Avi's overall.. so I really value your opinion.
ReplyDelete