Short term - I think we have zig-zag from the August low for y/B. For wave c ideally we should see a few days lower for 4 and another high to finish c/y/B.
Intermediate term - the two options which I have explained w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B, it is the same at the end.
A lot of divergences so I discard bullish patterns - we have three higher highs in a row and for each one MACD/RSI are making lower high. This is not bullish break out, this is a top around the corner.
By the way time looks interesting too - w/x/y from B have similar length 3-4 months each so balanced pattern. Even more interesting A/B have exactly the same length around the end of November.
Long term - the big picture is not changed, we are nearing the top of wave B and sell off into Q2.2020 should complete the correction which begun in January 2018.
I do not see how the price will go vertical to erase the divergences. The sentiment is already at extreme which you see short before the top and not at the beginning.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new weak with divergences, some turned lower, and extreme bullish sentiment Fear&Greed index at 91.
McClellan Oscillator - with divergences and below zero despite the indexes showing "strength".
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with multiple divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - trying to touch the overbought level, multiple divergences.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower with divergences.
Fear Indicator VIX - staying between 12-13, probably we will see spike higher and higher low.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower, no signs of strength.
HURST CYCLES
The charts adjusted for 40w low in August. It is questionable, but in October my indicators tell me this is one big nothing and indexes like DAX/NIKK with clear low in August so I have chosen August for 40w low. I explained once 35w is average length so it is ok. Do not try to find symmetry - most of the time you will be disappointed. It does not work this way probably that is why many think that cycles does not work:)
Day 53, decline for a few days should finish this daily cycle(80d or 10w Hurst cycle) and 2-3 weeks higher from the next 10w cycle before bigger sell off.
Week 11 for the 20 week cycle.
But if 3 june was 20w cycle low and august 40w cycle low, I only see a daily cycle of 52 weeks
ReplyDeleteLook at the previous two 40w cycles - are they symmetrical or look like the one I am counting?
DeleteWhat indicators do you use to confirm a 40 week cycle low ?
ReplyDeleteThe best way I have found is MCO and the summation index.
DeleteUsually the summation index moves to 200-300 area or below. The problem is with very strong vertical moves than it can stay above this area.
Another option I use is MA50 of MCO - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21MCOSIRSPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25578706530
The last three 40 week cycles Aug.2017-Apr.2018 / Apr-Dec.2018 / Dec.2018-Aug.2019 are similar long first part and short second part 8-12 weeks overall 8 months length. So nothing strange with the last one.
The chart shows extreme in August strength in September(higher high) and nothing in October. Plenty of indexes and shares with clear low in August - for me the case is clear the low was in August not October... plus the summation index was above 400 in October.
Thanks, 15 or 28 August?
ReplyDeleteIt does not really matter.... one week does not make any difference. Lets say 15th of August:)
DeleteI asked you this in case 9 October could be a 10 week cycle low
ReplyDeleteNo it is 5w cycle low. Look at the DAX weekly chart the 20 weekly cycle from Dec.2018 to May.2019 - you have 6 weeks,6 weeks, 10 weeks. I think the current 20 week cycle for SP500 repeats this shape - 6-7 weeks(from 15th or 23th August), next decline 1-2 weeks for another 6-7 weeks for half 20w cycle low, then another 10 weeks with a low in January 2020.
DeleteThis is relentless :(
ReplyDeleteYes, creates nice illusion for strength:)
DeleteIllusion? Dude I read your post since Dec 2018. The only illusion is your analysis. How much money did you guys miss out on thinking the top was in multiple times and waiting for a big drop? Sure it may happen someday but anyone following this blog missed out big time.
DeleteIf you had looked at it over longer timeframe, say even early 2018 would have saved your bacon.
DeleteTypical short sighted criticism.
Like i said its a free blog, if you don't like Krasi's work please feel free to check out of here.
Dude you have read nothing. The end of 2018 I was talking all the time about strong multi month rally.
DeleteThis so called top which you are referring was just for simple correction in the middle b/B not for the whole move from Dec.2018 - yes I was too early calling the top of b/B.
In May when we saw correction and many were bearish I said correction buy it - this was my last trade long from the low in June.
The first possible top at all was in July and if you read my last long term update - I say we have the minimum, but we still could see complex b/B - which happened.
From the July are 50 points so nothing missed
Again we see the same illusion for strength like twice in 2018 and the sheeple fall for it.... again.
Krasi, there is a very nice canal, the top is 3130, then doun to 2920
ReplyDeleteIt looks like ED
For me it looks like w3 of 3 of 5
ReplyDeleteAll W5 Will be with divergence
ReplyDeleteI wondering if this is the top not 3 f 3 to infinite.
DeleteMy only problem with the analysis is that a cycle low in 2020 is now becoming a consensus call, both from technicals and articles such as this ..
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-12/world-s-rich-readying-for-major-stock-sell-off-ubs-wealth-says?utm_source=url_link
And if there is one thing we know, markets never do the expected
The consensus is clear - the market is strong and will go to the moon so I do not worry at all.
DeleteThe rich are not a majority, they are minority with big money and the big money is exiting quietly the market which explains the market breadth.
The majority is singing kumbaya:) for the third time in two years and heading to the cliff...
This is well visible even on my insignificant blog - the trolls are showing up again exactly at the the top as always:)
Hi Krasi, what is your medium term view of AAPL?
ReplyDeleteDown to support around 220.
Deletekrasi uvxy target 15 bucks?
ReplyDeleteMore like 16,70
Deletebottom of channel
DeleteShort term the pattern is looking like small ED with one more high today then we should see reversal and judging by the indicators and market breadth the top for the move from the October low... at least. It could be easily the top for the whole corrective move from Dec.2018.
ReplyDeleteI dont see ED
DeleteNot top yet, still need wave 4 of C than wave 5.
DeleteI think it is too late for that... we have to see very fast moves.
DeleteWith the futures moving "stronger" the long sideway mess is triangle and final fifth wave higher.
DeleteA chart?, thanks you
DeleteYes, it's better visible on the Russell where we have flag as 4th wave.
DeleteWhen started the ED?
DeleteChart - just draw trend lines connecting the lows and highs on short term chart
DeleteTriangle is more likely and started on 8th of November.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJUwm4pWkAAagmm.jpg
ReplyDeleteI see this on the 10min chart - https://imgur.com/a/OApnJSZ
ReplyDeleteTriangle lasting one week and impulse higher, so far 1-2-3 with 4 and 5 needed to be finished.
Krasi what do you think of the chart above of dax cycles?
ReplyDeleteDavid follows literally the nominal model... to such degree that the important 9 year cycle low for example is not in 2009 but in 2011. I do not agree with this approach at all. This is fitting the price action to satisfy some theory. The way is to fit the theory to the price action and not the other way around. I do not care about theory which can not find a low like the 2009.
DeleteThe October low is not an important low, it just looks symmetrical. Just lucky to have one more low at the right time... what about the previous two 40w cycle lows? How would you make them fit?
Where are the lows to make the cycle look symmetrical and make the theory look great?
There is important lows, market breadth confirms them and this are the important cycle lows. Any other fitting to look nice is bullshit for me.
MCO and the summation index show the important lows to such degree that even flat or slightly lower price action without amplitude are visible - take for example 2017. I would not abandon all this to make something look nice. The US indexes have shorter cycles than the nominal model. Unfortunately the only guy which was counting like me, really good cycle guy, pass away and http://forum.hurstcycles.com/ died with him.
HAHA. Krasi is expert. Just by looking at the chart, he understood immediately it came from David.
ReplyDeleteWell, he was looking for the late Oct/early Nov lows on stocks like many others waching cycles.
I wonder what this poor girl who went all in 3x short S&P ETF is going through right now Krasi - will you call her a troll too? I have been a member of this blog for couple of years so allow me to explain the obvious, which you seem to be missing. I suggest to go back to every post this year and confront what has been "suggested". First the retest which never happened, the next big move is lower, etc. 11 months later we're up 35%+ up on S&P / +40% up on nasdaq. The markets will probably tank now as we have really poor breadth but that is not the point. The point is the other people reading this blog are novice traders and will blindly follow what you say and I bet they have lost a lot of money - yes that was their decision and their money and trading is about risk management and probabilities, but they don’t know it yet. I guess everyone has to go through the same route to learn or loose it all. I just don't think it makes them trolls though.
ReplyDeleteRegards,
Mily
P.S. I wonder how violent the move lower is going to be once the fuel to this vertical move has run out (i.e. CB rate hike flip flop to tame the animal spirits)
I call trolls guys with clear lies like the one below - how am I constantly wrong since 2015 when spotted the important lows and highs and he lost money shorting the last weeks based on my analysis when the first chart is clearly showing one more wave higher.
DeleteOr the "Dude" above - who followed me missed it big time. How is the call for multi month rally in 2019 or buy the June low a big miss?
I missed this c wave higher - my mistake not listening to my indicators.
I was early looking for b/B this does not mean go short or sell your longs and run. b/B means there is another c/B and more to the upside. Obviously the novice do not understand it.
This kind of guys are appearing always at the top and this is for the third time - the result will not be any different.
I remember what I wrote two weeks after the correction has begun in Jan.2018 "This is wave 4 the most difficult to predict and by the time it is over it would have made me look like a fool many times."
Why I wrote this - because I know how this corrective waves behave.
This does not change anything - the big picture is playing out.
Can I predict the exact path of corrective wave(B) from corrective wave(4) - no.
Can I predict if it will take 6-8-11 months or if it will rise 25% for simple flat or 35% for expanded flat - no.
How did "experts" with paid subscription performed - not any better.
This is corrective wave constantly evolving and you wait until you see finished pattern. In the mean time you will be many times wrong calling the pattern.
Blaming me for this is ridiculous and even more when this is a free blog.
I said many times trading and trading plan is something completely different than analysis. I do not buy/short because the analysis say so.... why? - simple this is subjective perception.
There is certain conditions and triggers which signal trade - they have to confirm the analysis. I have burned myself many times so now I know.
I do not have the time to write a trading guide and I can not and I do not want to manage someone else position. I wrote many times I do not give advice to sell or buy.
I am sorry, but the novice will have to learn it the hard way like me. Simple advice - trade in the direction of the trend and wait for confirmation.
Those who are bullish are explaining me how wrong I am referring to intermediate term forecast, hopping that I am wrong for the big picture - they will be disappointed for the third time.
Those who are bearish see the big decline and have no patience to wait for confirmation, I am sure some are blaming me for this. Learn how to manage trades and risk - analysis just support your trading.
Yes I agree, I am not sure how many believe in EW, been following for last three years and never made money this last two weeks I lost 5K following these analysis and shorting market. Hope someone gives me back my money when it goes down later.
ReplyDeleteI follow you from 2015, your projection of path and price are not right most of the times.
How is the chart(1 and 2) above suggesting to go short when it is showing up?
DeleteIf you do not know what trading plan is and how to build position it is not my fault.
If you expect perfect road map for the future wit every turn and twist - I can not give you such.
Lets see in 2016 I said major low, top early 2018, later 2018 do not trust this ATH corrective it will go down, 2019 multi month rally.
Well if you could not make some money with this information it is not my fault either.