Weekly preview

Second bearish weekly candle with market breadth in sell mode... now it is confirmed - the 20 week cycle turned lower and the indices will move lower for a few weeks.
What is much worse on the last day of the month big sell off and we have bearish monthly candle instead of nothingburger - indecision candle. I was watching and expecting such candle, but with only one day left I gave up and the market makes what you expect in the most unexpected way:)


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Another short term pattern from Kris which looks better.

Short term - all possible patterns I see are - impulse with extended fifth wave 5=1to3, zig-zag with a=c for "a" of a bigger zig-zag or diagonal(yellow) if we see a bigger pop up next week. It sounds complicated, but it is not because all three have the same path - final up and down for the pattern to be completed then retracement higher.
Looking the MACD/RSI divergences it is hard to imagine that the move is just starting to accelerate.

Not so complicated AAPL it looks like impulse 1-2-3 and probably H&S top formation.

Intermediate term - TA looks interesting... the market does not start big sell off when it is above MA50 first you see a bounce with lower high or higher high with divergences then a bigger sell off follows and currently MA50 is being tested so we should see a retracement higher.
The indicators MACD/RSI breaking the trend lines from the October low. If we have just small a-b-c for iv/3 the next lower trend line will be tested and the price will turn higher again.
Look at RSI - often when you have fourth wave RSI breaks the trend line which is early warning and moves deeply lower, but stays above 50 - see the circles it happens all the time. If this is small degree wave iv/3 not even 4 why is RSI below 50? Why in the middle of the third wave we have bearish monthly candle? Just asking the bulls, I now the answer there is no third wave in the first place.
I expect bigger decline and it should test the area around support(the previous four peaks), MA200 and 38% retracement.

Long term - wave B should be finished, expect the sell off to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate scenarios - three waves lower for C triangle or impulse C for running flat.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - second slightly oversold level with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - it looks like we have an impulse higher and I think it should test the broken trend line connecting the highs, then we should see big spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower and broke below the trend line connecting all the lows from Dec.2018.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the signal is sell. I have paid too much attention to the divergence on the 1h/4h chart and ignored the entry point - the price was rejected four times at MA10.... my mistake. It is not fatal I think we will have another chance. RSI is moving too far too quickly from the trend line and MA18 so it should snap back and this will be another entry point.

Hurst cycles - SP500 20d sine wave. The question is when to expect 20w low? The Hurst guys are counting short half cycle(only 3x20d cycles) and from there another 10 weeks or 4x20d cycles with a low mid-February(red arrow). Full 20w cycle with 8x20d cycles is the first week of March(black arrow). We can only wait and watch how the pattern develops. If I am right that we have B wave the decline should be bigger and take longer or late February/first week of March.

Week 17 for the 20 week cycle, which with high probability turned lower. Based on the high-to-high count which is minimum 40w cycle high I expect to see a bigger decline than most expect.