Weekly preview

There is only one word for this - MASSACRE. Watch south park - aaaand it's gone:))) this is what happened this week.
Short summary with all the excuses and bullshit how the market will reward everybody for ever - what were you thinking guys?
- I am so wrong with my correction and the great market keeps on giving - aaaaand it's gone for 5 days half of it evaporated.
- the buy and hold crowd proud with their returns - aaaaand it's gone, back to the 2018 highs where the correction begun so back to zero two years later.
- the "right count" with third wave - aaaaand it's gone, went down the drain where it belongs.
- economic models, scientific proven, funnymentals - aaaaand it's gone, model this:) it is about emotions fear and greed people are irrational not rational. EW models this not some economic models.
- "I will exit when it turns negative" - aaaaand it's gone, I bet most just watched like a deer in headlights:)
- TA or EW does not work, FED is printing - aaaaand printing is gone:) back to TA like MA200 trend lines etc.
- trolls trying to ridicule me how wrong I am - aaaaand they are gone, have not herd them lately:) now they look mega stupid as always - three times for two years and learned nothing, pure stupidity....

To sum it up the market punished the stupid greedy clueless herd.... as always and it is left holding the bag as always.
I let all this comments with the intention the traders to look back and learn something from their mistakes - keep cool head do not let to be sucked in from extreme emotions greed/fear.... but first this is naive the herd will never learn, second this time it was so extreme with insults like "xxxx dog" why do not I obey the herd and switch to third wave. This will not happen again... such comments will be deleted. Imagine what will happen in a few years when the bull market will end.

P.S. please spare me the bullshit - I got lucky, coincidence, virus blah blah. It is not coincidence it is pattern cycles and emotions. If you can not see them it is your problem not mine.
P.S. waiting for the "not confused expert" xyz to explain me EW and the third wave because I am now really confused - is this wave 4?



Now lets try to find out the real right pattern, it is all that matters the pattern everything else is irrelevant.
Nothing usual with this move the fastest 10% lower ever, but the usual outcome is short covering then test of the low(sometimes lower low sometimes higher low) then retracement - the traders should forget the pain and the indicators/market breadth should reset from extreme oversold levels.
- From cycle perspective we should see 5w high next week and 5w low the second week of March so this fits with short covering and test of the low. In April we should see 10w cycle high - probably the retracement/reset phase. This looks like confirmed 4y cycle high to me so we should not see higher high until the 4y cycle low in June. This is the time plan.
- From pattern perspective - two options w1/C for expanded flat or a zig-zag lower for big W-X-Y or some ED. SP500 has exactly the right size for 1/C to complete C around 2200, but if you look at NYSE it is way too big so I will give 50:50 to the two options at the moment. In both cases we should see something higher w2 or b before continuation lower. First we need a bottom of course:)
- Market breadth/indicators - extremes like December.2018 too much fear too fast, we should see intermediate term low and weeks higher. Healing fear and resetting the indicators takes time so I will not be surprised to see 5-6 weeks retracement. This makes the zig-zag option more likely from time perspective.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it is so strong looks like impulse... well it is not so clear. We need at least one more low for impulse. AAPL below shows the case more clear.

It looks like prefect impulse, but still we need slightly higher and a new low. If this does not happen we have only zig-zags.

Intermediate term - I was too bullish with 2-3 weeks lower to 38% Fibo level:) Again if this is w1/C projecting impulse with standard Fibo measurements points to my target area 2200, but I will be careful because it is too big for other indexes. We have time window so I will just watch what happens in June.
Watch RSI we should similar price action like Nov.2018. When you see RSI close to the trend line the first half of April and the price in the target area 50%-62% it is time for the next leg lower.

DJ gives interesting perspective. Look at the symmetry above MA200 and below MA200. Next we should see retracement to the broken trend line. It looks like H&S, many other indexes XLF,RUT etc. have such pattern.

Long term - the move from Dec.2018 is over. Decline into important low in June is running. The two scenarios ares C for expanded flat or a zig-zag.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - extremely oversold, many at levels seen in December 2018. We should see up and down with divergences for an intermediate term low.
McClellan Oscillator - extreme level, I have not seen such.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in oversold territory.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, oversold.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal, extremely oversold.
Fear Indicator VIX - extreme level 50, it should cool of for weeks.
Advance-Decline Issues - reached extreme oversold level.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - not much to explain sell signal with extremes. Price and RSI way too far from the MAs and they should try to test the moving average. The usual length of this cycles is 35-45 days. Currently we have 19 days and price is moving way too quickly so I think it should be shorter like 30 days... which will synchronize it with Hurst 40d/5w cycle low.

Hurst cycles - the same like last week. The first week of March we should see 5w high and the around mid-March 5w low.

Week 4 for the 20 week cycle.
Quote from last week says it all - "We should see spectacular decline into the 4y cycle low because first it is compressed in time and second it follows vertical patterns.... and they always end the same way - vertically lower."