Short term - I see a-b-c lower with c=0,62xa. After that we have another a-b-c higher retracing 50%. For a perfect pattern will be nice to see slightly lower low to complete A-B-C from the top with C=0,62xA.
Intermediate term - intermediate term low expected soon and multi week move higher. Watch RSI to move to >60 but below 70, MACD close to the zero line. The price should not exceed 62% retracement around 3200.
Long term - C wave lower running. I expect to see zig-zag lower from a triangle, impulse is now the alternate scenario.
Monthly chart how I see the big picture. With three zig-zags the most likely pattern is a triangle. I do not think it is ED in this case wave IV is too short - 3 months or 1 year. Triangle is good alternation to expanded flat II and good time retracement for III - 3years/7years roughly the expected 38%. At least time should be retraced when price retracement is shallow.
The big adjustment is where the 4 year cycle high is. If you look at the cycles(high-to-high) since 2007 they are shorter 3,5-4 years. If you put the 4y high at the start of the corrective pattern(triangle), where it should be, it falls in line perfect with the sequence.... which runs almost perfect(red 4y cycle highs, purple 4y cycle lows).
I should have known better - B bigger than 1,618%, alternation to wave II needed, looking at cycles further than 4 years... in hindsight is always easy:) Not that many are seeing triangle even now, I know only one guy.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - we should see bottoming with divergences and reset from very oversold levels lasting for weeks.
McClellan Oscillator - still very low levels, divergence developping.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in oversold territory for a while.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, waiting for bottoming.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - expect to see a divergence and move higher for a few weeks.
Fear Indicator VIX - huge reversal on Friday, expect lower high and cool off to normal levels.
Advance-Decline Issues - very oversold levels, it should turn higher.
HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the signal is still sell. The price and RSI tested the MAs. We should see one more low and turn higher, which will trigger buy signal.
Hurst cycles day - it looks like double top at days 27-28 right on schedule for 5w high. If the short term cycles continue to work so good next is 5w low mid next week.
Week 5 for the 20 week cycle. Why I do not think this is 20w cycle low? Think about it you have extremely strong right translated 20w cycle up for 19 weeks what should happen next - 1-2-3 weeks insignificant move lower and another higher high. Retracing the whole strong 20w cycle for just one week does not make sense at all.
I would describe it this way - from trading perspective it is the 20w cycle low to trade and I will not be surprised to see two months higher for market breadth reset and 20w cycle high, but from theory perspective it is not.
Hi Krasi what do you think about Natural Gas and Oil?
ReplyDeleteNatural gas probably will test resistance and MA200 around 2.20 and final sell off.
DeleteCrude oil I think two months higher for 20w cycle high testing MA200 and final sell off.... probably the indexes will do the same.
First waiting for confirmed low of course.
Target for final sell off Will be 1.3 for Gas and 27 for Crude Oil?
DeleteNatgas no idea, oil not so low 33 +- 2-3
DeleteWell that escalated quickly:) I assume this should be w3 so most likely slightly lower low below 26.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PSOyWmVT/
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fAzz1WwA/
Deletesp500 possibile flag https://www.tradingview.com/x/AUmMMrIe/
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rBeVw96w/
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x1mFJepb/ INVERTED HAMMER https://www.cleartrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Inverted-hammer-shooting-star-2.png
DeleteHi Krasi.. i have a strange feeling that “the guy” you mentioned above might be me.:) and it feels great to see you tend to agree with me.:) 3 waves down on your long term chart is the confirmation it’s an expanding triangle. However the B wave marked at the top should be actually D and III wave ended in Jan 2018 not October 2018. That one was B.
ReplyDeleteAlso I wonder about the structure of this E wave down. You suggest a of E has ended and snp will go up in b of E and then c all the way down. Rsi reset higher sounds like a reasonable argument. However, have you considered a scenario where a is longer than c? It would accomplish a few things: 1. The market would trick even more experienced traders who expect a rebound now. 2. The news about coronavirus and oil is so bad now that it’s hard to imagine a rebound now. 3. Instead of rsi resetting higher why not making another low on the daily chart? 4. If we started 3 of a of E at the end of it most will think it’s over instead of the beginning.
A rebound in b from approx 2200 ( according to my calculations of a) will be powerful. Hence another trick: no one will expect c coming. If this materializes we should end this correction around 2000 level. What do you think Krasi?
I think we have normal triangle, this one week killed everything extended flat triangle what ever.
DeleteNo it’s not killed. When spx hits 2000-2100 you will see a perfect expanding triangle completed.
DeleteThis is not the c wave. I think this is b of B/2, and B/2 is forming an expanded flat or flat
ReplyDeleteI have explained why this is not very likely.
DeleteIf September 2018 was a 4 year high cycle then we shouldn't see lows below December 2018?
ReplyDeleteI have not thought about that, but it make sense - making higher lows when the trend is up.
DeleteSaturday Saudi Arabia launched a global oil price war, when Aramco announced unprecedented discounts on Brent shipments to clients around the globe, with Bloomberg later reporting that the OPEC nation was set to flood the world with excess production potentially to as much as a record 12 million barrels a day, which in a world where oil demand has cratered due to China's economy remaining paralyzed due to the pandemic, assures that when Brent reopens for trading tonight it will be in freefall, tumbling into the $30s if not lower as OPEC is no more and every producer now scrambles to undercut everyone else in price, unleashing another deflationary massacre and forcing central banks to pull another market-supporting rabbit out of their hat.
ReplyDeleteUntil they do, however, traders in the Middle East where markets have already reopened, decided to sell first and ask questions later, as stocks cratered ahead of the first official oil price prints, which will come after what was already the biggest one day drop in Brent since 2008 on Friday after news that the OPEC+ alliance had fractured. And now oil will have a Saudi oil price war to deal with, prompting some to speculate that the price oil could drop into the high teens, if not lower.
Kuwait led the sell-off, halting trading of the biggest and most liquid shares after its index tumbled 10% and bringing its losses this year to 18%, while every stock index in the region plunged. Dubai’s DFM General Index and Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index clocked up the sharpest drop for a session since the 2008 financial crisis.
DeleteMeanwhile, ahead of Monday's US open, UK spreadbetting service IG was indicating Dow futures to be down more than 500 points, as last week's violent selloff was set to return with a bang and as traders hoped that the Fed would make another emergency announcement later on Sunday to help ease the pain. https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/IG%20spread%203.8.jpg?itok=y9xRBBXB
DeleteMind the gap.
ReplyDeleteWell done Krasi.
Wonder where the trolls are now.
It is always the same it is never different - what goes vertically higher goes the same way lower, excess greed is purged with excess fear.
DeleteThey just did not want to accept it, emotions prevailed again... human nature.
5 waves down seems almost complete (or complete) on both Oil and SP futures, even though everyone is assuming doom tomorrow.
ReplyDelete2-3 days the dust to settle down and intermediate term bottom, this is how I see it.
Delete2770 / 2730 ES MAVG should be tested. As with Feb end, sharp move down will usually be followed by retracement bounce.
ReplyDeleteThis oil thing is a slight game changer in addition to virus.
There is proper panic because people had just about got comfortable with virus and oil is a black swan now.
2780 is the ideal target support and second wave lower with 0,62 extension.
DeleteOil is not such a big surprise - impulse lower was expected for c/B, but the way it is happening is a surprise. I do not know a way to predict >30% plunge in one day.
sorry i didn't understand. do you mind a quick chart to explain this 2780 and 0.62 extension?
DeleteIt is the measurement from the first chart C=0,62xA, just we do not have higher on Monday and plunge so the level is moved lower from the high on Friday. I measured it on the futures... but it should not be much different.
DeleteIf it does not stop there it is C=A.
Seems like the 2770/2730 area test I mentioned earlier happened at cash open and rebound from there.
DeleteDay is long ...
Now 2730 looks interesting 76% measurement, two lows in 2019 at this level, and the same distnce above and below MA200 for symmetry.
Delete"This is not the c wave. I think this is b of B/2, and B/2 is forming an expanded flat or flat"
ReplyDeleteWhere did you explain this was wrong?
I think you are right now. Futures are down sharply and it makes sense we are in C wave now. I don't think we will bounce until we hit 200 weekly.
The last two weeks explaining that impulse lower does not fit any more and this excludes wave 2.
DeleteToo much fear for this to be wave 1.... unless I understood it wrong, what you mean with B/2.
It feels like forced liquidation and margin calls. I read about problems with the repo market and hedge funds speculating too much on borrowed money. I can not be sure, I just read charts, but this will be good explanation.
ReplyDeleteThe point is too much fear too fast. Usually this is not the way long lasting bear markets begin.
But this is always the same, like Feb 18, Oct 18, Feb 20 and now .. over-leveraged hedge funds, risk parity and algos amplifying. This is a proper risk shock. Would be surprised if it bounces at 2780, there will always be overshoot same as on way up.
ReplyDeleteThe oil development over weekend has added new layer of complexity to the near term risks and uncertainties investors are facing, already there is panic with increased virus cases in US over the weekend.
DeleteLet's not forget that US largely ignored virus problems till ten days ago when infection happened inside the country. Unlike Asian countries they have no prior recent experience of dealing with this.
As a result, market conditions will get worse before they get better.
The next target is 2650 for C=A 100% extension.... a little bit too stretched for me.
DeleteFear has different dynamics than greed. Greed builds gradually with the time, fear is much more powerful and it discharges very fast.
We can only wait and see now.
For me it feels like too much greed is purged now.... with blood on the streets:) Such corrections are powerful, but short living. We have seen a few of them since 2009.
I guess Louis is in dire straits, vxx / tvix > 36% / 73% premarket,
ReplyDeleteHe is in and out all the time, on the other blog, where they trade volatility, they were long, I told him 2-3 days higher so not necessary.
DeleteHe will be fine:)
I'm down on that position but doesn't matter I made so much money surely that piece of krapp and I'm gonna make more money when this thing goes back down volatility don't stay there forever
Deletewas that near term bottom?
ReplyDeleteIt could take 1-2 days the market to calm down, but this should be intermediate term bottom.
DeleteKrasi, are you buying here?
ReplyDeleteI am not so brave:) waiting for a 1-2 days to see if it will continue lower or not.
Deletegold bear flag, I'm assuming more up from here
ReplyDeleteShort term maybe, but I am not bullish gold... it should be making 8 year cycle high and the pattern from 2015 looks to me the same like the indexes - two zig-zags higher with triangle in the middle.
Deletei meant the markets probably go up - not gold :)
DeleteDo you think today is a bottom?
ReplyDeleteIt should be the bottom. NDX with 0,62 extension, SPX with more unusual 0,76 extension, DJI some where between this two.
DeleteSPX looks like a perfect 0.618 retracement from dec18 to ATH
ReplyDeleteYes, and if we see one more push lower to 2730 it will hit support the two lows from March and June 2019 and MA200 will be right in the middle - the same size above and below it.
DeleteMakes sense, thanks
DeleteHi, I am little confuse with your charts. Sorry! One of your long term chart suggest the final bottom will come around 2200 or 2300 but when you talk about bigger picture for 2025 and draw the price point, that chart shows only dip to 2700 in 2020.
ReplyDeleteSorry if I am not clear but hope you got what I am trying to say.
The main scenario I follow is triangle shown on this monthly chart.
DeleteThis 2200 is alternate if somehow something else plays out. This is impulse lower, but in the last weeks discussing that it is less likely and with the move today it looks dead.
Thank you Krasi!
DeleteLooking at AAPL, BABA and a bunch of tech stocks, it looks like they need to hit 200DMA.
ReplyDeleteKrasi, I believe we hit c=a and s&p should move higher for few days ?
ReplyDeleteYes, yesterday answered it should be a bottom and 2730 looks very interesting. It is 0,78 for both cash and futures, unusual but still Fibo level... posted yesterday somewhere above.
DeleteMore prominent is 62% retracement for the whole move up from Dec.2018 and support, maybe this pulled the index as a magnet to lower level.
This is what I see at the moment - https://invst.ly/q2hbw
ReplyDeleteZig-zag lower with c=0,78xa unusual but Fibo level, 62% retracement for the whole rally from Dec.2018, support hit, RSI divergence. This should be a bottom as stated yesterday.... there is strong move up already.
Next we should see a correction higher taking a lot of time 6-8 weeks to reset the indicators.
The first resistance zone around 3030 is 50% retracement the next one around 3130 62%.
I can not predict the exact path it should be something which takes a lot of time ideally with 20w cycle high in Mai.
whats the point in trying to even trade downside if it happens like this? doubt if anyone was truly positioned to make it count.
ReplyDeleteSo krasi, now we get long and play BTD market till May?
Something like that... but it will be in and out not just buy and hold. If we are lucky it will be a simple flat, if not something choppy - triangle or combination and difficult to trade.
DeleteThe important point is to reduce longs, no need to ride twice 25% corrections.
For speculators is to make some money.
Now i see why bulls troll here. Having missed the up move from 2900 to 3400 waiting it out, now the correction happened but didn't stay below 2900 for even 12 hours. The view now is correction over, back to uptrend till May.
ReplyDeleteUnless of course, people here latched on to the short 3x on Friday and covered exactly Monday close cant see how anyone made this count. Other than selling out of longs last week, and loading back up Monday close. That would be superman trading.
I can see frustration of analyzing a market heavily manipulated by central banks and tweets. Guess the better strategy would be stay long, don't use leverage (protect against margin calls) and HODL!! V-shaped recoveries always happen, the V gets shorter time horizon every dip. Now it's clear skies till May.
My point is: on a heavily overbot market at all times highs, the inflection was correctly called by Krasi (after waiting since 2900). But aside academic pleasure looking back and saying it happened, how to trade this?
The correction is not over it is a pause. We have 20% lower for two weeks a pause is needed to digest the volatility. You can not expect to continue so for months it will hit zero in June for the 4 year cycle low:)
DeleteDo not worry skilled traders can ride this moves. Personally I am not frustrated believe or not TA works fine and yesterday was a good example.
From your thoughts I will assume you are buy and hold guy so from your point of view how to trade it? - simple reduce your longs and add again in June when important low is expected. What is the point to HODL two 25% corrections and three years wasted time? In May it will not be so effective, but still ok for me.
Small long position, it seems the low is tested.
ReplyDeletelow being tested again today pre-market? seems to be a daily occurrence :)
DeleteNot a big surprise, it should be choppy.
DeleteI told you we were going to test 200 week MA. You said RSI was oversold last week. RSI is the most overrated indicator. You can go from oversold to more oversold, that is how crashes happen. I think this could also be still wave B of 2 still. The whole move from Oct highs looks like an expanded flat. This is similar to 2010-2011 correction except in a larger scale.
ReplyDeletealso could be a leading diagonal
DeleteThis could be a zigzag still, but imo if it is a zigzag, then we would be forming an ED. I'm looking for 5 waves down from the top
DeleteYou have to face the facts - we have a zig-zag which is corrective structure. Even if it is ED it want move lower than the c/4 triangle which I am showing so it does not matter - no lower low below Dec.2018
DeleteRSI is in top three of the best indicators, when you can not use it is your problem not a problem with the indicator. Oversold means bounce and another lower low - how is that bad forecasting from the indicator? Projecting price levels is not it's purpose.
I understand you frustration, but denying what is happening will not change it. Fantasy LD or expanded flats are just wishful thinking... like the bulls denying the zig-zag because it is strong.
I'm just repeating what you said "Yes, but RSI and market breadth extremely oversold, too much fear too fast this makes another leg with the same size less likely."
DeleteAnyways, I did some FLD projections and if we have a weekly close below 2600, then I'm projecting we go down to 1900s. This means either we break 2600 and crash 20-30% more or we have a huge bounce then retest the area sometime later.
so 2650 seems possible today
ReplyDeleteBullish reversal candle with divergences, what makes you think it seems possible?
Deletehi, the last two swings up can be counted as a small abc. Particularly yesterday, the C wave seems clear on smaller time frames. If it were an impulse, overnight should have rallied. Also, Gold wave 4 seems over after the falling wedge. We should have more up to 1730 area I think. Having said that, I have stops on my shorts in profit as I agree the turn is coming very soon and maybe before I think. Thanks for all your charts and commentary Krasi!
DeleteDo not expect impulses it should move higher with zig-zags - triangle, flat or combination to burn time.
DeleteWith impulse and this week it will reach the levels which should not be crossed - what it will do the next 6 weeks:)
From experience when you see bullish/bearish daily signs, but hourly choppy pattern - daily trumps hourly. It will find it's way higher/lower.
In the vix we can see 5 waves up krasi
ReplyDeleteI see double zig-zag which began in November last year.
Deleteiii of 3 of a of E of a big triangle that started in Jan 2018 is just starting.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with that.
DeleteLooking on monthly or weekly charts I base it on the following :
DeleteIWM - huge zigzag wit C wave running now.
DOW and S&P both the same expanding triangle - the time of this huge megaphone corrective formation will have taken approximately 30% of this whole cycle since 2009. So Dow and s&p are in the last E wave now, more specifically in a of E. Once the support is broken today you will have further confirmation of that. It’s the highest probability outcome now, in my view. Take advantage of it till it lasts.
Good luck with that, I will pass.
DeleteI guess yesterday's daily hammer not going to work!
ReplyDeleteIt looks we are going to 2570
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the market is following Crude Oil exactly over the past month. The bounces happened on the same day as well as the drops.
ReplyDeletebought at 2650 :)
ReplyDeleteOops :( 2200 back in play
DeleteLikewise getting long 2650 with close watch on 200w dma.
DeleteKrasi, good call but wish u had stuck with it man.
Those who try to pick bottoms tend to get smelly fingers
DeleteNo worries, have been trading long enough to not be faced by cliche statements like that about "picking bottoms". Want me to throw back "buy when you smell blood in the street?" or one other such remark?
DeleteHad exit longs Jan/Feb and am in position to add risk. Realize things could move lower, but it will not be straight line down either. Good trading market this and 200w dma as good a line to hold as any.
Anyway my response was for Krasi trying to call a bottom too early on the first bounce after 2750 test.
At least I am buying 100pt lower close to dma. If 2650 does not hold (cash close), we have far bigger problems.
I am guilty of having smelly fingers myself. It's a weekly avg and week aint over till Friday
DeleteI gave up the idea of impulse and I think this is right, not levels. The levels are still the same two levels on the chart even today.
DeleteWhat happened short term is the second leg is c=a and not c=0,62xa(wrong about that) which does not change the big picture.
So still the same I see zig-zag lower with c=a, expecting 50% retracement to resistance around 3020. From there if you measure the next leg lower is 62% around support 2550 or 100% around 2200
Surprise surprise the same two levels from the weekly chart:)
Lets see first if this c=a will hold. To quote if it does not we have far bigger problems.
Great,you are right.I follow you every week from three years ago and your analysis have bene Always tight. Thank for your work.
DeleteThanks Krasi, insightful analysis as always. Keep up the good work.
DeleteNice to see you also making adjustments. It's that kind of market, one needs to reassess as things evolve. We are also breaking away from a decade long complacency in US indices and it is tough to call price levels exactly.
Hope the line holds, no fun cutting longs bot at oversold levels. But I will if it accelerates below.
p.s-
Finally figured out how to include name ... (same author as the "if 2650 does not hold, we have far bigger problems" and "Now i see why bulls troll here..." from 10/03).
I think many do not understand that every day there is new information and sometimes adjustments are needed... especially in such environment - size and speed of the the decline never seen before.
DeleteI made statistical guess extremely oversold with divergence 0,62 - it did not work. I can not be always right.
It does not work always perfect, but the point is not to be caught with the pants down like waiting for third wave 3800 and being hammered down with 25% lower for 3 weeks.
Ha, fair enough point. Although even my 2650 buy earlier today feels leaving me caught pants down judging by the way everything looks right now.
DeletePlan was to cut if the line does not hold, but looks like even the cut might be expensive one!
I still think it's a daily / weekly close game here. Not sure how low it can go before a rebound and still (on hindsight) be looked at as the weekly mavg holding.
2600 or 2570
ReplyDeleteWe have a very nice ABC and this is just A of C
ReplyDeleteI thought you gave up the charts it is FED printing printing.... up up.
DeleteWhat happened to this mantra?
How is doing Lara with the third wave:)
We have to change the disk and not to be stuck, the alternate is the way
ReplyDeleteGood point:) a trader should be ready to change his view at any point without hesitation.
DeleteThere is no right and wrong, when you try to predict the future, because we can not.
When the market broke 3200 it was the first time for short, we have no sign of long
ReplyDeleteOf course, until the summer is only speculative longs and day trades.
DeleteTnx Krasi for writing this blog. What do you think of europe like DAX / Eurostoxx 50? they are already below the 2018 levels. Nice if you would review this now and in your weekend updates.
ReplyDeleteIt is not only Europe RUT,DJT,XLF too. I do not have an answer at the moment. I am still trying to figure it out:)
DeleteThis is the best I can come up with - https://invst.ly/q3dpi
DeleteEurope looks a lot weaker iii/3 does not make much sense. a-b-c will be in sync with US pattern and time.
EEM illustrates what I am explaining - https://imgur.com/a/81YHyqr
ReplyDeleteTwo zig-zags lower with the same size. Next should retracement to MA50/50% or MA200/62%.
The bears can try to count impulse and the low today as v/3, but there is overlap in the middle of the third wave(i and iv) which should not happen.
Krasi, your long term chart clearly shows a zigzag down which means 535 correction. However, you insist on 335 order. I don’t get it. And if such powerful move down is not an impulse, then what do you call an impulse?
ReplyDeleteOn the long term chart is shown triangle clear 3-3-3 I do not know where you see 535 335.
DeleteAsk the bulls how this worked out - powerful move is impulse.
As far as I know impulse is defined as move consisting of 5 waves and not as strong move.
Take the EEM chart and show me the impulse.
Exactly 5 waves is an impulse but you try make c=a in a 3 way move down. This is incorrect in my view. You are underestimating this move down. c=a would mean 2590 on s&p. This is too optimistic. It’s a 5 way move to either 2445 or 2250 in this 3rd wave depending whether 3 is 1.272 or 1.618 of a. I am not including 5 of a which should take us to about 2100-2150. Your long term chart is zigzag( I mean the last wave down) but your a wave is way too short. 333 is the whole correction, a triangle which is correct. But I am talking about the last 3rd part of it.
ReplyDeleteI do not try to make anything I say what we have so far - two legs lower with the same size which is zig-zag. This two legs itself does not count good as impulse, especially the second one which should be the third wave. All this well visible on EEM above.
DeleteThe triangle is perfectly fine I checked it in the Neely book nothing short or long.
I forgot to mention EEM as per your comment. Weekly chart is similar to the on of Russell so it should be the last 5 waves of this huge zigzag. It’s different from s&p and Dow where the last drop of the whole triangle is zigzag. However in all of these indices we are in 5 wave drop now.
DeleteBest case some indexes with diagonal for a/C some the end of wave 3 others overlap....
DeleteYou mean 2100/2150 target by summer correct? Or when you say "You are underestimating this move down" do you mean it all gets done in one flash crash over this week and next?
ReplyDeleteNo.. I mean this is first move down of a zigzag. This is a then b and final c. I think a will reach 2100-2150. I think c will complete the correction around 2000 or a bit lower.
DeleteThanks Krasi. Just curious, how are you managing the small long that you put on? Already exit?
DeleteI added a small piece at 2500 now, 1/3 size in total now. Still expecting oversold bounce around dma even though its toast for now.
It is really small not even my usual 1/3 fishing reversal, it was more for fun:) so I am holding it.
DeleteI am not worried. Such market breadth always leads to the same result.
Even starting to wonder if the c wave in June will make lower low.
Looks like your zigzag/triangle is wrong. Looks like an impulse now going down to 1900s by Summer. If we don't close above 200 weekly today this is clear as day an expanded flat from October 18'.
ReplyDeleteYou are assuming this is final move down. I assume another one is coming after a rebound. It’s too early to say who is wrong.
DeleteCareful what is clear, a few weeks ago something else was clear. In your scenario there is no in Summer it should happen in the next 2 weeks. Are you sure?
DeleteI think this is what anonymous suggests with his flat prediction. I am assuming a rebound in b, at least a few weeks, and then final c of E. this should take us to at least Mayor June. I think your Q2 timing for completion is correct, Krasi.
DeleteKris for what it's worth I get the same impression; first move to 2200, then a multi-week bounce, then down to around 1800 by/around June.
ReplyDeleteThat’s my assumption. We’ll see soon how it plays out.
DeleteFor those who want to see strong move impulse look at XOI - clear waves 1 and 2, wave 3 with 5 sub waves and 3=2,618x1. This is impulse.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like most major stocks have similar impulse, check BA, CAT, FDX, IBM and so on.. if they are components of Dow it means that Dow is experiencing an impulse too. If Dow has impulse s&p should have an impulse too and so on. Conclusion: all indices have been experiencing an impulse. I learned from you Krasi a lot and one of those things is to adapt quickly to market changes.
DeleteThis is now definitely I see what I want to see. From top ten only BA is probably in 4/c/Y.
DeleteEverything else is obvious corrective patterns.
I wish we were seeing the same pattern.. we could discuss the current wave count. I have a big favour to ask of you Krasi. If you assumed that this is impulse on spy which wave would it be? I am seeing iii of 3 of 5. I think one more low will complete iii. What do you think? Thank you Krasi
DeleteThis spike should be iv/3 and new lows should follow to complete 3.
DeleteThanks Krasi, really appreciate
DeleteThanks Krasi, really appreciate
DeleteHi Krasi, what do you mean by this.."I am not worried. Such market breadth always leads to the same result."
ReplyDeleteYou see such market breadth at important lows... we know it is important anyway.
DeleteThanks Krasi. If you attempted to draw (guesswork) SPX chart based on the current price action, what would it look like?
ReplyDeleteWhat is your short-term count for Crude Oil?
ReplyDeleteTHe Market is following that rn
zig-zag up zig-zag down has to be completed then another zig-zag up.
DeleteGoing to the 2018 lowe
ReplyDeleteIt looks 3w of w5 in the vix
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing, it's so strong, without any corection, exactly like the period they go high and high, now low and lower
ReplyDeleteIt looks w3 of 3, no ABC, or w3 of C
ReplyDeleteCan we cut the crap already - https://imgur.com/a/Q8RvB0h
ReplyDeleteThere is two legs lower. Best case we have 1-2-3 with 4-5 needed for impulse.
The biggest reaction in this "third wave" is in the middle and two legs with the same size - this is zig-zag. For impulse it has to continue much lower for iii/3 to erase this zig-zag from the second leg and for two weeks completes impulse below 2000.
I think it is just a zig-zag now with c=1,618xa.
The same like Dec.2018 - https://imgur.com/a/Dink332
ReplyDeleteBack then trying to count impulse not this time.
So Krasi, you think given this move its similar pattern to 2008 .. we are close to end of correction?
DeleteI think the June important low scenario is most likely.
Not that the correction is over, just this leg looks the same and should be over.
DeleteThe correction consists of three legs and this is the first one, we should see two more.
In 2018 is was the third leg which finished the correction now it is the first one.
What do you mean the first leg finished the correction? What are/will the other two legs do?
DeleteOne will retrace the other will complete the correction.
DeleteMakes sense Krasi, correction in 3 legs final leg 1800/2000 june/end summer.
DeleteAlthough the price action seems no respite, seems to want to complete all 3 legs this week. Still hanging in here with longs that i thought bought this session at good levels close to support :)
The thing that I worry about trying to call a bottom is the US lack of experience with this (compared to Asia which is better prepared due to SARS, MERS), combined with an emotional mindset from having seen a decade long bull market. Emotional mindset starts from the top POTUS btw. So are investors adjusting to this as market sells or just exit en-masse is the big question.
In presence of this big unknown variable in the market, best to stick to TA levels (3% band) with defined stops ..
Krasi, just one more question on the 3 legs down. Given the extent of the move in leg 1 (within short span of time), do you think the repair phase might be a bit longer and extend higher? hence leg 2 and leg 3 take longer than june/end summer timeline?
DeleteIn fact such fast moves lead to shorter cycles. If I am right about wave C triangle than I expect long repair phase and quick final phase a few weeks - in the end normal cycle 18-20 weeks.
DeleteThe nominal cycles are 4,5/9/18 years. I did not follow such long term cycles, but now all this makes sense.
ReplyDeleteThe correction has begun in 2018 18y cycle high 2000-2018
It should be completed this year 18y cycle low 2002-2020.
This explains very good what we are seeing - all the power of the 18y cycle discharging in a few months.
Thanks for regular update.
DeleteSo by the 18 year cycle analysis, does it mean a new bull run to new highs at end of 2020? How do the projection look like? When compared to earlier analysis of final move up to new highs on shorter cycle up to 2024/25 ....
I have changed the 4y cycle high to a top in Q42022.
DeleteI think it will be the same like Jan/Feb this year on a bigger scale - right translated cycle, the next one makes higher high and fails early(2-3 years) in the cycle turning lower for a decade or more. This is my plan and it fits good.
Thanks buddy, and the weekend squeeze comes right on time. Think we just tested 2400 during Asian hours and strong bounce from there.
ReplyDeleteYes, the reason is some liquidity injection in Aussie.
I would say the impulse with it's third wave just went down the drain.
ReplyDeleteactually this fits perfectly with a expanded flat 2nd wave, c wave just started. The 3rd wave will come when we top around 3200 imo.
DeletePlease read an EW book before making such statements, which are clear nonsense.
DeleteHint - your b wave from expanded flat is bigger than 2,618xa
Actually it's right at 2.618xa, maybe you should learn how to measure waves. Plus, that is a guideline, not a rule.
Delete
Delete“ I would say the impulse with it's third wave just went down the drain.“
Too early to say Krasi. It fits perfectly with 4 of a of E of expanding triangle. 38% retracement of the 3rd wave. 5th should follow soon, Monday or Tuesday.
If this is an impulse at all the next low in June will be higher low. The correction will be over as expanded flat.
DeleteForget about this expanding triangles. I have never seen one, this are patterns from the theory books not from real life.
What a week and what a finish.
ReplyDeleteWaiting for next update from Krasi, if the week before was Massacre wonder how this week will be described :)
Have good weekend folks.