Short term - I have shown that the move lower is corrective, the move up looks like zig-zag too... different combinations are possible so I am just waiting with the labeling. Possibilities which make sense are triangle and flat b, or some ED - just guessing at the moment.
Intermediate term - the index should spend some time between EMA50 and MA200, but all this looks like topping to me before the next leg lower begins.
Long term - another 1-2 weeks for this move up will look good for RSI to reach the trend line and the histogram to reach zero or slightly above it. Resistance/MA50/62% is being tested, after that we should see a leg lower to complete the pattern.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look tired and stretched higher, but there is no signs of reversal or sell signal.
McClellan Oscillator - short term double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - short term divergence and oscillating around 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - again at 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - elevated levels, we should see one more decline for the indexes and VIX with divergence for important low.
Advance-Decline Issues - still lower highs, overbought levels have not been reached... there is no a broad based strength.
HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the weak point of this system is sideways patterns like triangle or flat. Price oscillating around MA10 and RSI about MA18 so I will not be surprised if some of this patterns is running. But we knew not to follow the sell signal, which is valuable information too.
Now the signal is buy, but I do not think it should be followed too late in the cycle for me. It is not clear if the same one is still running or a new one has begun. Currently day 33, usually the length is between 35-45 days. It will look better if next week we see some kind of a low.
Hurst cycles - there is probable 40d low on Monday exactly at day 28, if not we should see it next week. I can be sure only in hindsight.
Week 14 for the 20w cycle. Expecting a high, probably in 2 weeks, for the 20w cycle and final sell off.
Krasi,
ReplyDeleteThank you for latest post.
Appreciate it very much that you do it after closing on a Friday night. (EST)
You were right that this move up is taking a longer time.
So may Others are either calling for a TOP or bottom a few weeks ago but it actually chopped around for the last 3 weeks.
I meant for the S&P.
You can not forecast with EW such choppy moves for 3-4 weeks, but using different tools you know at least it is too early for a high/low.
DeleteHai Krasi, thanks for your analysis:can i ask you a guess on Tesla and Oil? Thank you
ReplyDeleteTSLA if does not make another higher high it is possible that this is an impulse and it will make higher low 400-450. If we see more highs than it will not look like impulse and it will follow the indexes to new lows 300-350.
DeleteOil - for proper looking impulse another low below 10 at least.
Thank you
DeleteThe diagonal from last week was negated, another version of ED and if we have 40d cycle low - https://invst.ly/qqlt9
ReplyDeleteThe idea on the cash index looks better - https://imgur.com/a/4IaIBNR
DeleteKrasi,
DeleteThank you for your updated chart.
For David Hickson eurostoxx, dax and dji made the 4 years low in March, I think it is not right
ReplyDeleteI know Krasi disagrees with me but I have been saying all along for the past couple of months that the March low was a 40 week low and the next and final 40 week and 4.5 year Hurst cycle low is in October/November, around election day. We will see.. Krasi's comments always welcome. Thank you for the quality of your blog.
DeleteIn 2019 the EW guys made the mistake that rules does not matter because the amplitude is too big.
DeleteI think David Hickson is making the same mistake - ignoring time because the amplitude is too big. He changed a few times his analysis high and low because the amplitude is big.
Cycle analysis is about time not about amplitude and I think this will be proven right soon.
Anonymous2 - there is no 40w cycle with length 25 weeks. See above cycle analysis is about time not amplitude. You are telling exactly the same like the EW guys in 2019 - "it is wave 3 because it is big", just in cycle terms.
Thanks Krasi for your response. Just to clarify my cycles position, here are the last three 40 week cycles that I see:
DeleteMarch 2020 is 33 weeks from the previous 40 week cycle in early August 2019,
August 2019 is 32 weeks from the previous 40 week cycle in late December 2018,
Decemeber 2018 is 34 weeks from the previous 40 week cycle in April 2018,
If we project another 32-33 weeks from March 2020 we get to the November elections (+/-) for the final 40 week and 4.5 year LOW.
As far the current rally from the March low, I never said this is Wave 3. The projected low in October/November of this year can either be Wave E of a huge triangle that started in January 2018 (in this case we are currently in Wave D ), or the projected October/November low would be the bottom of Wave C of an ABC zigzag that started in February of this year (in this case we are currently in Wave B that can take a few more weeks to complete). The second alternative is obviously the more bearish one. You comments are more than welcome. Thank you
One 18 month cycle consists of two 40 week cycle and you are counting three of them which is wrong.
DeleteApril 2018 - December 2018 is one 40W
DeleteDecember 2018 - August 2019 is one 40W and 18 month
August 2019 - March 2020 is one 40 W
March 2020 - Oct/Nov 2020 is one 40W and 18 month
Wrong counts again - Feb.2016 to Dec.2018 are three years or two 18 month cycles. Dec.2018 is obvious 18m cycle low. The third one 18m is running with the first 40w cycle last year.
DeleteThanks Krasi, if this is the case we should begin an imminent crash very soon..
DeleteKrasi
ReplyDeleteWhat's your outlook on uvxy?
Thanks
Should make a bottom soon(if not already hit on Friday) and a leg higher.
DeleteIt looks like a-b-c lower with c diagonal and maybe completed on Friday. We have to wait a few days for confirmation.
So 34 looks doable?
DeleteMinimum double to 70 to retrace the wedge, but I think it will be even higher.
DeleteThanks any time frame?
DeleteIn should begin in May and the high the first half of June.
DeleteLooks like we are on our way to make an flat from Feb highs. Nasdaq is almost back to ATH and SPX will follow. We may not get a zigzag down to new lows but a C wave impulse to double bottom.
ReplyDeleteMaybe some tech shares SPX will not make it.
DeleteHi Krasi, I don't have expertise to disagree with you but the tweet below made me wonder whether price can grind higher similar to how to SPX rose from ~3000 to ~3400.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1258845183875125251
This may not make sense because of the cycle timing you call out but do you see indexes going up due to short squeeze?
Shown this way this chart means nothing - one occurrence does not mean anything. What happened the last 10 times?
DeleteHistory does not repeat it rhymes. Sometimes the bottom is V-shaped sometimes is W-shaped. The previous one was V now it should be W.
Five stocks FAAMG 20%-25% of SP500 are 10% higher for the year the rest 495 stocks 13% lower for the year.
DeleteIn 2019 for two months the McClellan Summation Index from -1100 to +1200(broad based move up) now from -1200 to +100.
So much for the strong broad based V shape reversal.
The weekly US new high / new low index chart ($USHL5) printed a WHOPPING +251 (compared to the -16,719 at the March "bottom") at the end of last week, so the market(s) are definitely ripe for another buttkicking right now.
DeleteThere is 34 uvxy wondering if its goin lower
ReplyDeleteNow it should be up. The cash index completed the pattern up from last Monday and something lower should follow.
DeleteI did not expect markets, especially QQQ to bounce this far, yet here we are. Your analysis makes sense to me from here. What is you perspective on the fact that AAII bulls are at low levels, AAII bears are at high levels, and so many sold out bulls who do not believe this rally? I guess I'm asking if there is an even more bullish alternate scenario?
ReplyDeleteBullish is counting this as wave 1 with correction w2 to follow in May/June.
DeleteKrasi us it possibly that 3000 gets tagged this month
ReplyDeleteYes, this should be the minimum target.
DeleteSo the 2850/2825 achieved today, next is the move up to 3000/3108? Before the re-test of lows? Is that what you are suggesting now Krasi?
DeleteThis is what I think will happen at the moment, but it is still not 100% sure there is two more patterns alive - flat lower to 2780 before 3000 or the bearish triangle than it will not make it to 3000.
DeleteThanks boss, tricky here. On balance momentum seems that 2825/2815 printed overnight was the base. Let's see.
DeleteKrasi. So according to first chart 2850 to 3000 now thanks
ReplyDeleteSee the comment above.
DeleteI think we have now more clarity and it looks like a-b-c/Y to me - https://invst.ly/qsj88
ReplyDeleteThe end of this b wave pattern should be the 40 day cycle low. We have four very clear short cycles 3x8 and 1x13 trading days.
Collecting a few coins from the DAX short and SP500 break even from the mid April short. Long sideways move for the 40 day cycle. Lets see if I am right about expecting a bottom.
ReplyDeleteSorry Krasi but not following this comment. What do you mean?
DeleteClosing the shorts I had, because I think we should see a bottom - there is five waves lower completing a pattern and probably 40d cycle low.
Deleteat this point 2800 breached, also 8950 .. so it's a bit of hope and prayer about bottom. Think downside is equally possible?
DeleteI don't know if this matters but isn't RSI on 1 hr chart saying there should be more downside?
DeleteProbably one more low to 2790-2780 mentioned above for c=a, but that is all I do not see much lower... at least not before a bounce higher.
Delete5w low today?
ReplyDeleteIt looks very likely to me.
DeleteKrasi, what do make of the RSI line breaking support on the daily chart going back to late February? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe move up is either completed or there is one final high. Usually it is the second one.
DeleteTrap door is about to shut. T theory volume oscillator is close to confirming a bear T.
DeleteKrasi, just for educational purposes. Is that usually because the RSI tends to retest the support(now resistance) from the bottom and also creates negative divergence in the process? Thanks for your help.
DeleteYes, very often RSI tests the broken trend line before the price turns lower.
DeleteBull divergences on both 1hr and 2hr chart. I can't ignore it as much as I'd like to
ReplyDeleteon futures i mean :)
DeleteIt is true... but one more push lower is possible see below the next comment.
DeleteKrasi, very interesting analysis. Your thoughts are similar to Jack from channelsandpatterns website. However, Jack thinks the S&P 500 will fall down to the 2750 area (a little lower than your target of 2790 to 2780) before climbing higher - minimum to 2954 and more likely to the 200 day moving average of 2999.
ReplyDeleteDo you have any dates in mind for the timing of the next high? Do you see the S&P 500 climbing to the 3000 area around the end of May or would be more like early June, mid June?
Now I have looked closely the charts - one more push lower to 2750 is possible (explanation below with EW) then MA200 looks the perfect target. I think this move up should be finished in May.
DeleteNow I had the time to look the charts more closely SP500 retraced 90% from the 4th of May which means the pattern should be flat and now we have five waves lower and two legs lower with roughly the same size so the move lower from 29.04 should be finished. The problems with that DJ/NYSE did not retraced 90%, NDX the supposed w4 from this impulse lower retraced more than 62%, DAX w1 and w3 with the same size... that is why initially I though the move could be completed at higher levels.
What I want to say is - it is possible that we do not have impulse lower and the pattern is not a flat. In this case we have one more push lower to the 2750 area(double zig-zag with w=y).
Can you show this on a chart please
DeleteNothing much to show - https://invst.ly/qszyr
DeleteIt seems confirmed what I was explaining. Just count how many waves we have - now there is 7 with the lower low today. This means corrective pattern. For impulse you need two more waves up and down, but again we have not seen the low.
Here it is how it looks like to me - https://invst.ly/qt29e
Deletethank you
DeleteKrasi, the move higher is impulse? 5 waves?
ReplyDeleteThat wat I see in weekly chart
ReplyDeletedid we hit target? Divergences building, close to 2750 but no cigar
ReplyDeleteThis should be a bottom - no cigar:)
DeleteBought the dip, was a little scary. Thanks Krasi! I think /NQ needs to fill it's gap around 9400
Deletenice one Krasi, any chance of a re-test? I got filled on my NQ, missed the ES by trying to fine tune a few points. doh!
DeleteIt is a guess at the moment - there is only three waves up so it could drop lower, but as easily it could continue for wave 3-4-5.
DeleteAre we seeing another look at 2750? This looks more complex now?
DeleteLess likely - if it is ED and in the middle of wave 4 or triple correction.
DeleteOvernight futures are not far off though, dramatic reversal.
DeleteHi Krasi, can you please analyze WFC bank for me? It looks like it has bottomed for the intermediate term. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteWith this zig-zag lower I am not convinced it is over.... maybe ED and now w2 up.
DeleteThank you!
ReplyDeleteHello Krasi,what do you think about this irrational move up of the Oil? Next target 10$?
ReplyDeleteIrrational was the move lower, now it is just getting back to the normal levels.
DeleteFrom charting point of view if the low is tested 10$ will look good, found support twice there.
If fundamentals allow such move again(another liquidation event) I can not say. Many things which looked impossible occurred... everything is possible.
But according to you is it possible now a pullback? At wich level? Thank you for the answer
DeleteIt is the same like stocks we should see one more sell off to begin soon to finish the 4y cycle. How deep I do not know 10 looks interesting.
DeleteAfter 29 down to 10? But It Is so Deep...
DeleteKrasi is 3000 still legit this month
ReplyDeleteI have some doubts.... this move up started very strong, but now it looks corrective and weak.
DeleteThis move up is suspicious... it looks like completed double correction.
ReplyDeleteTaking some profits before the weekend is maybe a good idea.
Uvxy target still 70
DeleteEven higher, but I have the feeling we will see first one more up and down(most likely higher low) before it really taking off.
DeleteTake profits on the long or short?
DeleteI was trading the swing from 2760 on long side. Interesting weekly close.
Seems either 2750 or 2890 needs to break to set direction on either side.
Profits from long trades, this two day rally is very suspicious. I suspect previous lows around 2730 will be tested.
Deletekrasi on uvxy you mean a higher low like 33
Delete