Weekly preview

The pattern was not completed, which was obvious and now we have it with explosion. There is possible completed pattern so waiting for confirmation or not next week. Its taking so long because with very high probability we have 20 week low in March - my mistake. Not that I was not expecting two legs higher and this second leg, the daily cycle showed it clearly, just from the beginning we would had known that it will take longer and higher.

We have two legs higher with shallow and long middle section exactly the same like 2019/2020... some has not learned and counting impulse again.
EW pattern - X wave in 2019, corrective leg lower, corrective leg higher above 62% expect impulse lower to complete flat pattern. I though after X wave from all three corrective patterns flat is the least probable because it is crazy after what happened in March, but it is playing out.
Cycles - 20 week low in March and now final 20 week cycle running with expected low in July to complete at least 4y cycle.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we can discuss for hours and I have to explain pages and discuss many indexes and futures.... instead lets not distract and keep it simple. IMHO the fact itself that we have to discuss if it is an impulse or not means with very high probability it is not. Impulses are just there and they do not need to be justified.
I see an a-b-c with possible finished c or waves 4-5/c to complete it. I can make the case for both scenarios - again focus on trading, which means patience, which means we wait for the price action on Monday for more information. If I start with trading it will be again long story - I will make it short wait for confirmation.... or some will not understand and call me again full of shit:)

Intermediate term - we discussed before the jump on Friday that it is most likely a flat, now I do not see other pattern fitting. It feels like exhaustion gap... we will see on Monday. Now the time is getting ripe for the gaps to the downside to be closed.

Long term - the leg up almost completed, next final sell off will finish the whole correction which begun in 2018.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - is strong with some divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - overbought, divergence with the previous high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal at overbought level for a while.
Bullish Percentage - overbought, divergence with the previous high.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - strong.
Fear Indicator VIX - made lower low, but still elevated levels. I expect one more rally.
Advance-Decline Issues - overbought.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the signal is buy. The price is too far from MA10 next should be this interaction with the moving average.

Hurst cycles day - I guess 20 day low on a pullback or just lower for 40 day cycle low. The lower sine wave probably will need to be adjusted what is coming should have different dynamics from the prior move up.

Week 11 for the 20 week cycle. I have switched to the alternate scenario 20 week low in March. Now the final one is running which should be shorter than the average because the previous one was longer than the average. We had already shorter 10w cycle lasting less than 8 weeks. I guess the length of the 20w cycle should be somewhere between 16-18 weeks. The 20 week cycle high seems to arrive on schedule with the proper price action.